Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
1st & Goal: 2022 Week 7 Review
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 10, 2022
The home stretch is here, and with it more of the unexpected even as we continue to learn a few new details every week about this season’s contenders.
Several more league champions were rewarded this week, but nearly as many races seemed to re-open thanks to unpredicted performances.
Bay & Thumb
HEADLINER Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 32, Bad Axe 14 The Lakers (7-0) finished an outright championship run in the Greater Thumb Conference West, defeating Bad Axe in a winner-take-all league finale. Those two and Reese had shared the championship a year ago. Bad Axe entered scoring 37 points per game, but Laker still hasn’t given up more than 15 to any opponent this fall. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.
Here are the highlights of the Bad Axe at Elkton Pigeon Bay Port Laker that aired on Football Fridays Overtime powered by STATE CHAMPS! on @BallySportsDET pic.twitter.com/QZEqcrLMn7
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsmich) October 9, 2022
Watch list Armada 37, North Branch 28 The top of the Blue Water Area Conference is shuffling weekly, and suddenly Armada (6-1) finds itself on top alone after knocking the Broncos (6-1) off their former solo perch.
On the move Marine City 47, Clinton Township Clintondale 8 The Mariners (6-1) haven’t lost again since falling to Armada by a point in their season opener, and they finished a Macomb Area Conference Silver outright title run. Lapeer 42, Grand Ledge 28 The Lightning (7-0) turned away another strong challenge from the Comets (5-2) with Clarkston and Davison coming up to close the regular season. Fenton 28, Linden 21 This combined with Swartz Creek’s win over Flushing ended the Flint Metro League Stripes schedule with a shared championships among the Tigers (5-2), Eagles (5-2) and Dragons (6-1).
Greater Detroit
HEADLINER Riverview 18, Carleton Airport 13 The Pirates (6-0) ran their regular-season winning streak to 26 and Huron League streak to 21 in clinching a third-straight conference championship. The Jets (5-2) entered averaging 32 points per game but were held to their second fewest this season.
Here are the highlights of the Riverview vs. Airport game that aired on Football Fridays Overtime powered by STATE CHAMPS! on @BallySportsDET
@RivBucsFootball | @maroonmonsoon01 | @jacobshank5 pic.twitter.com/6lJKNEEye8— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsmich) October 8, 2022
Watch list Grosse Pointe North 50, Warren Fitzgerald 0 After going a combined 7-27 over the last four seasons, North is 7-0 and the Macomb Area Conference Green champion. The Norsemen have given up 32 points this season and allowed only six over five league wins.
On the move Grosse Pointe South 20, St. Clair Shores Lakeview 16 After two seasons in the MAC Red, South returned to the MAC White this season – and after an 0-2 nonconference start won all five league games to take back the title after previously winning the White four straight seasons from 2016-19. Redford Union 40, Melvindale 6 The Panthers (7-0) ran their Western Wayne Athletic Conference winning streak to 17 and clinched a share of a second-straight league title. Southfield Arts & Technology 35, Oak Park 12 In addition to guaranteeing its first overall winning record since its first season in 2016, A&T (6-1) clinched an outright Oakland Activities Association White title while no league opponent got closer than 14 points.
Mid-Michigan
HEADLINER Durand 54, Chesaning 8 This combined with Ovid-Elsie’s 14-13 win over New Lothrop earned the Railroaders (7-0) a share of the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference title. The seven wins are the team’s most since winning seven in 2009, and tied their most since 1983 according to Michigan-football.com. Click for more from the Flint Journal.
Watch list Laingsburg 27, Fowler 14 Coming off a Week 6 win over many-season reigning champ Pewamo-Westphalia, the Eagles (6-1) looked to be control in the Central Michigan Athletic Conference. But Laingsburg, which opened its CMAC schedule with a loss to P-W, instead guaranteed itself a share of the championship with Fowler and the Pirates able to earn the same with wins this week.
On the move Ithaca 50, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 18 The Yellowjackets (6-1) claimed the Tri-Valley Conference West 2 title, their 14th straight league championship, while handing MLS (6-1) its only loss. Ovid-Elsie 14, New Lothrop 13 In avenging four MMAC losses to New Lothrop over the last four seasons, Ovid-Elsie (5-2) also gained an opportunity to claim a share of the league title if the Hornets (6-1) defeat Durand this week. Olivet 42, Lake Odessa Lakewood 7 The Eagles (6-1) ended their (and Lakewood’s) time in the Greater Lansing Activities Conference by clinching a sixth-straight league championship while sending the Vikings (5-2) into second place.
Northern Lower Peninsula
HEADLINER Boyne City 34, Elk Rapids 0 The Ramblers (6-0) clinched a share of the Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders championship, with the opportunity to earn it outright this week against Tawas. The shutout was the team’s second in three games and the championship is their second straight. Elk Rapids moved to 5-2. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.
Watch list Cadillac 24, Belding 6 The Vikings (5-2) not only are Big North Conference champions but now own a win over another league leader as the Black Knights (6-1) sit atop the Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver standings.
On the move Tawas 44, Maple City Glen Lake 14 Tawas entered the season with 15 straight losses and added five more, but now has won two straight and this time with its best offensive performance since 2019. Traverse City St. Francis 35, Sault Ste. Marie 7 The Gladiators (7-0) finished a repeat title run in the NMFC Legends and ran their regular-season win streak to 19. Lake City 45, Roscommon 6 The Trojans (5-2) equaled their 2021 win total and with two regular-season games to play against opponents that could significantly improve their postseason possibilities as they sit No. 24 in Division 7 playoff points.
Southeast & Border
HEADLINER Tecumseh 50, Chelsea 34 The Tecumseh dream season continues and now includes the program’s first win over Chelsea since 2013 and a Southeastern Conference White championship to go with a 7-0 start. Chelsea (5-2) provided the stiffest challenge this season, but Tecumseh’s offense continued to churn going over 50 points for the fifth time this fall. Click for more from the Ann Arbor News.
Watch list Temperance Bedford 7, Saline 0 The Kicking Mules (5-2) had given Saline (6-1) some of its closest games over the last eight years. But their first win over Saline since 2013 not only ended a personal losing streak but the Hornets’ run of 50 straight SEC Red wins since that last Bedford defeat.
On the move Napoleon 29, Michigan Center 27 Napoleon (7-0) is the Cascades Conference champion, and outright thanks to some help from Grass Lake (see below). Adrian Madison 14, Erie Mason 8 The Trojans (3-4) need to make up 12 spots to get into the Division 6 playoff field, but two straight wins is the right start especially with Mason at 5-2 this fall. Grass Lake 34, Addison 18 The Warriors (4-3) have pushed to the No. 26 spot in the Division 7 playoff field with Addison sitting No. 27 on the Division 8 list.
Southwest Corridor
HEADLINER Buchanan 26, Niles Brandywine 24 The Bucks are the first football champions of the Lakeland Athletic Conference, and they earned that historic title by avenging a 2021 loss to Brandywine (4-3). The Bobcats made a run at the lead late, but Buchanan (6-1) held on and sits No. 15 in Division 5 playoff points with tough games to go against Benton Harbor and Centreville. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.
Watch list Lawton 49, Schoolcraft 14 The Blue Devils (6-1) remain on a roll, with this win clinching a share of the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley title and their fourth straight scoring at least 42 points and giving up no more than 16.
On the move Decatur 37, Delton Kellogg 22 The Raiders (5-2) guaranteed their winningest season since 2018 and against a Delton team eying a third-straight playoff appearance and sitting No. 12 in Division 7 playoff points. Niles 49, Paw Paw 8 The Vikings (3-4) had a rough stretch midseason, but with a second-straight win are sitting just one spot outside the Division 4 playoff field. St. Joseph 42, Stevensville Lakeshore 14 The Bears (6-1) continued to push toward a possible Week 9 decider in the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference while sending Lakeshore (3-4) into a tie for third.
Upper Peninsula
HEADLINER Negaunee 24, Gladstone 6 The Miners (7-0) fortified their status as the Upper Peninsula’s top team this fall, adding this win to another over Iron Mountain – the two opponents that also have been in the mix for that praise. The Braves were averaging 36 points per game entering the contest, but Negaunee brought its points-allowed average down to nine per game this season. Click for more from RRN Sports.
Watch list St. Ignace 20, East Jordan 14 The Saints (6-1) clinched a share of the NMFC Legacy championship and can claim it outright Week 9 against winless Harbor Springs. East Jordan (3-4) is hanging on to a spot in the Division 8 playoff field.
On the move Calumet 35, Houghton 12 The Copper Kings (4-3) bounced back from a Week 6 loss with a must-win against the Gremlins (5-2) and are holding onto the No. 32 spot in the Division 6 playoff field. Ishpeming Westwood 14, L’Anse 6 The Patriots (4-3) ran their winning streak to four as they prepare to finish with a pair of potential league champions in Bark River-Harris and Negaunee. Marquette 21, Menominee 6 After a 1-4 start, Marquette has won two straight including this one to avenge a 2021 loss to the Maroons (4-3).
West Michigan
HEADLINER North Muskegon 28, Ravenna 7 The Norsemen (6-1) drew another important win closer to a possible West Michigan Conference title with this win over second-place Ravenna (5-2) to go with an earlier victory over third-place Hart. The Bulldogs are the highest-scoring team in the Rivers division this fall, but North Muskegon held them to well below their previous average of 39 points per game. Click for more from CatchMark SportsNet.
Watch list Fruitport 28, Grand Rapids West Catholic 20 This was the stunner of the weekend, but maybe shouldn’t have been as Fruitport is enjoying its best season in a decade after finishing below .500 the last eight. West Catholic (6-1) hadn’t had an opponent come within two touchdowns since opening night.
On the move Big Rapids 27, Howard City Tri County 27 The Cardinals (5-2) shook up the Central State Activities Association Gold and ended up on top with a guaranteed share of the title with Tri County and Reed City also with one loss in league play. Reed City 52, Kent City 0 The Coyotes (6-1) won big over the CSAA Silver champ Kent City (6-1), a nice bonus to getting back into the Gold title race. Sparta 34, Hopkins 14 The Spartans are 4-1 over their last five games and back in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver mix after pulling the Vikings (5-2) out of a tie for the top spot.
8-Player
HEADLINER Peck 46, New Haven Merritt 6 The Pirates clinched the North Central Thumb League Stripes title and haven’t lost since Week 1. Peck has won its league games by an average of 37 points per, with one more to play. Merritt (4-3) is part of a three-way tie for second place.
Watch list Au Gres-Sims 50, Alcona 34 The Wolverines (6-1) are tied for first in the North Star League Little Dipper with a Week 9 matchup against Posen likely to decide the championship, and Alcona (6-1) playing Rogers City next for the Big Dipper title.
On the move Tekonsha 62, Burr Oak 6 Tekonsha (6-1) finished a second-straight perfect run through the Southern Central Athletic Association B. Indian River Inland Lakes 36, Pellston 6 The Bulldogs (5-2) finished an outright title run in the Ski Valley Conference and have yet to lose a league game over two seasons. Brown City 64, Mesick 62 The Green Devils (6-1) went over 60 points for the second-straight week to lock up their closest win of a strong first season of 8-player.
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PHOTO A Pine River ball carrier looks for an opening during McBain’s 46-0 win Friday. (Photo by Tonya Holmes.)