Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: 2022 Week 8 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 14, 2022

From a mile-high view, it’s incredible to consider how much history and how many memories will be made on Michigan high school football fields this weekend.

MI Student AidWe’re so close to the end of the regular season that almost every league in the state will have awarded at least a share of its championship by Saturday night. We’re also nine days from solidifying this season’s playoffs – and between Weeks 6 and 7 alone the prospective field of 288 teams saw 17 changes as time ticks down for hopefuls to make their move.

See below for our glance at several games that could continue to shape how this regular season finishes up. (Games are Friday unless noted.)

Bay & Thumb

Croswell-Lexington (6-1) at North Branch (6-1)

It seems like we’re turning to the Blue Water Area Conference for a big game every week, and this time it pits two of three teams tied for first as the league schedule concludes. The winner clinches a share of the league title, and Armada can as well with a win over Richmond. Croswell-Lexington broke a four-game losing streak against the Broncos with a 28-7 win last season – the only time North Branch has been held to single-digit scoring over the last two years. The Broncos are averaging 52 points per game this season, and a Pioneers defense giving up 16.5 will need to slow them down again.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Clarkston (5-2) at Lapeer (7-0), Grand Blanc (4-3) at Davison (6-1), Charlotte (6-1) at Flint Hamady (7-0). SATURDAY Goodrich (6-1) at Linden (5-2).

Greater Detroit

Livonia Franklin (7-0) at Belleville (7-0)

The Tigers have been nearly unbeatable the last six seasons – they’ve lost only once each of the last five, and the first four of those defeats came during the playoffs. The reigning Division 1 champions have won all four meetings with Franklin since joining the Kensington Lakes Activities Association East in 2018 – and this time the matchup will decide the outright league championship. The Patriots turned a 4-5 regular season in 2021 into a trip to the Division 2 Semifinals, and they haven’t slowed down. Nor has Belleville; the Tigers are outscoring their opponents by an average of 54-8 this season.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Detroit Cass Tech (4-3) vs. Detroit Martin Luther King (5-1) at Wayne State, Detroit Community (4-3) at Mount Clemens (6-1), Warren De La Salle Collegiate (6-1) at River Rouge (5-1), West Bloomfield (6-1) at Southfield Arts & Technology (6-1).

Mid-Michigan

Durand (7-0) at New Lothrop (6-1)

New Lothrop has won 12 straight league football titles between the Genesee Area Conference and current the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference. But extending the streak got a little more complicated with last week’s 14-13 loss to Ovid-Elsie. That meant Durand earned a share of the championship with its 5-0 league start – and New Lothrop must win tonight to also earn a share, with a victory also giving another share to the Marauders. The Railroaders’ title is their first since 1983, and earning a win over New Lothrop for the outright championship would add another significant note to this memorable season. The Hornets have won their four MMAC meetings by an average of 33 points per game.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY East Lansing (6-1) at Holt (4-3), Olivet (6-1) at Williamston (5-2), Bath (5-2) at Pewamo-Westphalia (4-3), Clare (5-2) at Shepherd (5-2).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Lawton (6-1) at Traverse City St. Francis (7-0), Saturday

A league title in hand, St. Francis is continuing to push to the end of the regular season with Lawton up this week and Detroit Country Day next in Week 9. With Saugatuck unable to play its league game against Lawton this week, the Blue Devils – also their league’s champions – made a similar power move in connecting with the Gladiators for a matchup of the No. 1 (St. Francis) and No. 5 teams in Division 7 playoff-point average.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY St. Ignace (6-1) at Elk Rapids (5-2), Portland (6-1) at Cadillac (5-2), Gladstone (5-2) at Gaylord (5-2), Evart (6-1) at Lake City (5-2).

Southeast & Border

Saline (6-1) at Dexter (7-0)

Dexter received an unexpected assist last week when Temperance Bedford ended Saline’s 50-game Southeastern Conference Red winning streak with a 7-0 defeat – which also led to the Dreadnaughts earning a share of the league title instead of this week’s matchup being a winner-take-all for the outright championship. Saline will be plenty motivated especially on offense after being shut out for the first time since the first game of 2017 – and the defense has been elite giving up only 8.4 points per game. Dexter has put up similar numbers and surely hasn’t forgotten how close it came in last season’s 42-40 loss to the Hornets.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Hudson (7-0) at Dundee (6-1), Homer (5-2) at Reading (6-1), Marine City Cardinal Mooney (6-1) at Whitmore Lake (6-1), Erie Mason (5-2) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (7-0).

Southwest Corridor

Buchanan (6-1) at Benton Harbor (4-3)

The inaugural Lakeland Athletic Conference football title will be decided in part by this game. Buchanan clinched a share of the championship with a 26-24 win over Niles Brandywine last week. But Benton Harbor can also gain a share with a win this weekend – a major accomplishment as the team that went 10-1 in 2016 played as an independent, and the Tigers haven’t won a league title since 1984. Benton Harbor is giving up only 14 points per game, and that defense might be the key as it’s held up well even in the team’s defeats.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Muskegon Catholic Central (5-2) at Centreville (6-1), Chelsea (5-2) at Edwardsburg (6-1), Niles Brandywine (4-3) at Berrien Springs (5-1), Lake Odessa Lakewood (5-2) at Decatur (5-2).

Upper Peninsula

Negaunee (7-0) at Houghton (5-2)

The Miners are coming off a memorable win over Gladstone, 24-6, and they’ve been consistently solid all season. That must continue this week with a chance to clinch a share of the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper title on the line. Houghton is coming off a defeat against Calumet, but the Gremlins are one more victory from equaling their winningest season since 2013, and they’ve had their moments on defense over the last two seasons – including holding a Negaunee offense that otherwise averaged 34 points per game to only 26 last fall.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Iron Mountain (6-1) at Ishpeming (4-3), Bark River-Harris (5-2) at Ishpeming Westwood (4-3), Midland (6-1) at Marquette (3-4), Petoskey (2-5) at Sault Ste. Marie (4-3).

West Michigan

Muskegon Mona Shores (6-1) at Muskegon Reeths-Puffer (5-2)

The Sailors can clinch a share of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green championship with a win and haven’t lost to Reeths-Puffer since 2016. A 34-6 victory to hand Zeeland West its only loss sticks out from this year’s run, but Mona Shores must be careful with the Rockets. With one more win, Reeths-Puffer will guarantee its best season since 2013. And although the Rockets lost last week to Zeeland West 30-12, they did impress in a 28-20 Week 3 defeat against Muskegon High – Mona Shores’ opponent in Week 9.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Coopersville (5-2) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (6-1), Ravenna (5-2) at Muskegon Oakridge (6-1), Grand Rapids Christian (3-4) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (7-0), Kingsford (5-2) at Hopkins (5-2).

8-Player

Alcona (6-1) at Rogers City (7-0)

This has been an anticipated matchup in the North Star League Big Dipper for a few weeks, and Alcona’s 50-34 loss last week to Au Gres-Sims sapped it only a bit. Rogers City would clinch the title outright with a win, while an Alcona win puts those two and Whittemore-Prescott atop the standings with one loss apiece. The Hurons won a few games close over the first month to get into this position, but their defense has been tough throughout giving up only 17 points per game. Alcona is seeking its first win over Rogers City since 2017 and will attempt to counter that defense with an offense averaging 56 points per game.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Newberry (6-1) at Pickford (5-2), Central Lake (5-2) at Farwell (7-0), Kingston (7-0) at Mayville (5-2), Adrian Lenawee Christian (6-1) at Climax-Scotts (6-1).

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PHOTO A Saginaw Nouvel ball carrier dashes through the Ithaca defense during the Yellowjackets' 48-6 win Sept. 9. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)