Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
1st & Goal: 2022 Week 8 Review
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 17, 2022
Plenty of regular-season wheels were still in spin during football’s Week 8, including opportunities for a few more historic league championship claims and a few upsets to keep this season’s playoff field a little tougher to forecast.
Dexter and Durand are among the latest to celebrate league titles many years in the making. Spring Lake, Elk Rapids and East Grand Rapids kept us on our toes as well as we dug deeper into crunch time with only one week of regular-season matchups to play.
Here’s a look at how those teams and others continued to drive us forward as we draw nearer to playoff selection coming up this Sunday.
Bay & Thumb
HEADLINER Goodrich 21, Linden 0 The Martians (7-1) added the overall Flint Metro League championship to their Stars division title and also extended their winning streak that began after a season-opening defeat. Since that Week 1 loss, Goodrich has given up more than seven points in a game only once, with this its third shutout of the fall. The Martians have won all three meetings with Linden (5-3) since joining the Metro in 2019. Click for more from the Flint Journal.
Watch list North Branch 35, Croswell-Lexington 21 The must-follow Blue Water Area Conference race has reached a conclusion, with North Branch (7-1) clinching a share of the championship with this victory and Armada (7-1) clinching a share with its win over Richmond on Friday. The Broncos avenged a 28-7 defeat last year to the Pioneers (6-2), who went on to win the 2021 BWAC title.
On the move Harbor Beach 28, Bad Axe 7 The East’s Harbor Beach (7-1) won this matchup of Greater Thumb Conference division runners-up, avenging last year’s 42-33 loss to the Hatchets (5-3). Davison 49, Grand Blanc 14 The Cardinals (7-1) avenged last year’s 43-7 loss to the rival Bobcats to set up a winner-take-all Saginaw Valley League South title matchup this week against Lapeer. Freeland 40, Birch Run 6 The Falcons (7-1) have moved up in the Division 4 playoff-point rankings three straight weeks and now sit at No. 12 after sending Birch Run (4-4) one spot out of the Division 5 qualifier list to No. 33 heading into the regular-season finales.
Greater Detroit
HEADLINER Detroit Cass Tech 28, Detroit Martin Luther King 14 The Detroit Public School League Blue championship game was a rematch from Week 4, won by King 28-23. But this time, Cass Tech was able to shut down a Crusaders offense averaging 43 points per game and break a three-game losing streak against its biggest rival. Cass Tech (5-3) also received a nice boost to No. 29 in Division 1 playoff-point average after entering the weekend at No. 31. King, at 5-2, sits No. 12 on the Division 3 playoff-point list. Click for more from the Detroit News.
Watch list Farmington 39, Birmingham Seaholm 21 A two-point loss to Troy in Week 5 put the Falcons (6-2) in chase mode, but they earned a share of the Oakland Activities Association Blue title by handing Seaholm (7-1) its lone loss in the league finale. The next-best news for both is both were sub-.500 last year and have rebounded in big ways.
On the move Belleville 42, Livonia Franklin 14 The Tigers (8-0) clinched another Kensington Lakes Activities Association East title outright and ran their overall winning streak to 19, while dealing Franklin (7-1) its only defeat. Detroit Central 31, Detroit Southeastern 14 The Trail Blazers (8-0) ran their regular-season winning streak to 18 in finishing an outright PSL Gold championship run with a second win over Southeastern (5-3) this fall. Clarkston 48, Lapeer 13 The Wolves (6-2) have two good losses and some really solid wins this season, this one over the Lightning (7-1) just the latest and enough to push Clarkston up to No. 7 on the Division 1 playoff-point list.
Mid-Michigan
HEADLINER Durand 23, New Lothrop 21 The Railroaders’ season would have been considered a mighty success with just a shared championship in the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference. But Durand (8-0) continued to make its case as one of the most intriguing stories of this season statewide by edging the Hornets to claim the title outright, after two weeks ago earning a share of its first league championship since 1983. Even with the loss, New Lothrop (6-2) moved up a spot in Division 7 playoff-point ranking to No. 12, and its defeats this season are by a combined three points. Click for more from the Owosso Argus-Press.
Watch list Holt 16, East Lansing 13 The Rams actually ran their winning streak over East Lansing (6-2) to two, but this one spun the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue race on its side with Holt (5-3) clinching a share and East Lansing and Grand Ledge now set to decide the other half of the championship when they face off this week. The Trojans had entered the weekend in first alone.
On the move Portland 32, Cadillac 6 The Raiders (7-1) are shaping up as Division 5 contenders again, with this win over the Vikings (5-3) moving them up three spots to No. 6 on that playoff-point average list. Charlotte 44, Flint Hamady 34 The Orioles’ rise continues as they moved to 7-1 by handing Hamady (7-1) its lone defeat. Hastings 33, Jackson Northwest The Saxons (7-1) clinched a share of the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference title and can claim it outright this week against winless Battle Creek Pennfield.
Northern Lower Peninsula
HEADLINER Elk Rapids 26, St. Ignace 19 Add the Elks (6-2) to teams enjoying an unforgettable fall. They finished third in the Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders, but earned their most notable win this season over a St. Ignace team that’s clinched a share of the NMFC Legacy title and will play for the outright championship this week. Elk Rapids (6-2) has put together its best season since 2018, while the Saints (6-2) are surging through their best showing since 2016.
Watch list Traverse City St. Francis 42, Lawton 7 We’ve been watching the Gladiators all season, and it feels like we’ll be watching them late into November again as they moved to 8-0 with a big win over last season’s Division 7 runner-up Blue Devils (6-2).
On the move Traverse City Central 21, Bay City Western 0 A four-game losing streak in September had the Trojans (4-4) solidly outside the Division 2 playoff field, but a three-game winning streak has moved them back up to No. 21 in Division 2. McBain 46, Manton 20 After a few weeks skating outside the top 32 in Division 8 playoff-point average, McBain (4-4) is up to a more comfortable No. 27 with winless Muskegon Heights Academy up next. Charlevoix 38, Kalkaska 0 The Rayders moved to 7-1 with their second-straight shutout and sixth in eight games this season.
Southeast & Border
HEADLINER Dexter 21, Saline 14 The Dreadnaughts (8-0) defeated eight-time reigning champion Saline to clinch the Southeastern Conference Red championship outright – that league title also Dexter’s first in 59 years. Cole Cabana scored all three touchdowns, while the Dreadnaughts’ defense stood strong again and is giving up only 10.4 points per game this season. Saline moved to 6-2. Click for more from the Ann Arbor News.
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Watch list Adrian 39, Sturgis 13 The Maples (4-4) finished fourth in the SEC White, but their four wins are the team’s most since 2016, and they are one spot outside making the Division 4 playoff field after moving up seven spots with this win over the Trojans (5-3).
On the move Napoleon 36, Addison 18 The Pirates (8-0) clinched the Cascades Conference championship outright with their first win over Addison (4-4) since 2018. Hudson 46, Dundee 17 The Tigers (8-0) guaranteed a winner-take-all Week 9 matchup with Clinton in the Lenawee County Athletic Association while taking Dundee (6-2) out of title consideration. Ottawa Lake Whiteford 50, Erie Mason 14 The Bobcats (8-0) finished a perfect run through the Tri-County Conference and sit No. 2 in Division 8 playoff-point average, while Erie Mason (5-3) is hanging in at No. 29 in Division 7.
Southwest Corridor
HEADLINER Buchanan 34, Benton Harbor 22 The Bucks (7-1) wrapped up the inaugural Lakeland Athletic Conference championship outright, and deservedly so after putting up the most points a tough Benton Harbor defense has given up this season. Similarly, the Tigers (4-4) tied the third-most Buchanan has allowed, and will hope to continue that trend this week as they sit two spots outside the Division 5 playoff field with a trip to Constantine next. This win moved Buchanan up three spots in Division 6 to No. 12. Click for more from the Niles Daily Star.
Watch list Homer 34, Reading 30 The Trojans (6-2) didn’t catch Union City in the Big 8 Conference but finished a solid second thanks to their first win over Reading (6-2) since 2016. They also guaranteed their best record since 2019 with the win.
On the move Edwardsburg 46, Chelsea 7 The Eddies (7-1) are making some noise, with this win over the reigning Division 4 champion Bulldogs (5-3) a good conversation starter. White Pigeon 44, Kent City 19 A three-game winning streak has White Pigeon (5-3) steadily moving up the Division 8 playoff-point list, and this win over Kent City (6-2) was their most impressive of the fall. Watervliet 32, Parchment 7 Watervliet (5-3) was in need of some added comfort in the Division 6 playoff field, and this win pushed it up six spots to No. 22. Parchment (4-4) fell five spots to a less comfortable No. 34, two out of making the postseason.
Upper Peninsula
HEADLINER Negaunee 48, Houghton 0 The Miners (8-0) not only experienced no letdown after a big Week 7 win over Gladstone, they put up their third-most points of the season and earned their second shutout in clinching a share of the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper title. Negaunee will play for its first perfect regular season since 2016 against Ishpeming Westwood this week, while Houghton (5-3) is working to hold onto a playoff spot in Division 6 and could see the Miners again. Click for more from Upper Michigan Source.
Watch list Kingsford 46, Hopkins 7 The Flivvers (6-2) quietly have won five straight – with Hopkins (5-3) playing for a league title share this week. Kingsford has gone over 45 points three of the last four games and held its last four opponents to single digits.
On the move Gladstone 22, Gaylord 14 The Braves (6-2) quickly bounced back from that Negaunee loss, with a sixth win representing their most in a season since 2017 – and against a Gaylord team (5-3) enjoying its best since 2018. Iron Mountain 28, Ishpeming 8 The Mountaineers (7-1) are holding on to the top spot in Division 8 playoff-point average for the second-straight week after defeating a possible playoff opponent in the Hematites (4-4). Bark River-Harris 34, Ishpeming Westwood 6 The Broncos (6-2) may bring a little more momentum to this week’s West-PAC Iron title decider with Ishpeming after avenging last year’s 50-8 loss to Westwood (4-4).
West Michigan
HEADLINER Spring Lake 35, Hudsonville Unity Christian 32 The Lakers (3-5) have quite a bit to make up to have a shot at making the Division 4 playoffs. But they made a massive impact on the Ottawa-Kent Conference Blue race with this upset, denying Unity Christian (5-3) a chance to clinch a share of the league title and instead bringing Fruitport and Grand Rapids West Catholic back into the mix. Click for more from the Grand Haven Tribune.
Watch list East Grand Rapids 15, Lowell 14 The Pioneers (3-5) were coming off two losses, but in edging the Red Arrows (5-3) they pushed into a pretty solid No. 24 slot in Division 3 playoff-point average.
On the move Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 30, Grand Rapids Christian 7 The Rangers (8-0) are one of two undefeated teams left in Division 2 and now own a share of the O-K White championship with the chance to repeat as outright winner this week. Muskegon Mona Shores 15, Muskegon Reeths-Puffer 0 With their second shutout of the season, the Sailors (7-1) clinched a share of the O-K Green title. Grand Rapids South Christian 37, Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills 7 These Sailors now own a share of the O-K Gold championship but with a tough opponent coming up in Forest Hills Eastern as they seek to win outright.
8-Player
HEADLINER Rogers City 42, Alcona 26 The North Star League Big Dipper championship belongs to Rogers City after this highly-anticipated matchup. The last three between these rivals had been decided by a score, but the Hurons broke away and are now one more win from a first perfect regular season since 1998. Alcona is 6-2. Click for more from MI Sports Now
Watch list Central Lake 26, Farwell 22 Early losses to Gaylord St. Mary and Indian River Inland Lakes are why Central Lake ended up third in the Ski Valley Conference. But the Trojans have won five straight (including a forfeit) and handing Farwell (7-1) its lone loss makes them a team to watch even more as we head into the postseason.
On the move Climax-Scotts 28, Adrian Lenawee Christian 21 The Panthers (7-1) are absolutely among the best teams in 8-player Division 2 with this win solidifying that reputation. Lenawee Christian (6-2) remains a favorite in Division 1. Gaylord St. Mary 38, Rudyard 14 The Snowbirds also are a Division 2 team to watch coming off a solid win over Division 1 Rudyard (5-3). Kingston 56, Mayville 26 The Cardinals (8-0) are a win away from a possible first perfect regular season since 1999, and this win over Mayville (5-3) was one of their best.
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PHOTOS (Top) Detroit Central's quarterback attempts to launch a pass amid a Southeastern rush during the PSL Gold final. (Middle) A Detroit Cass Tech ball carrier looks to break past a Martin Luther King defender during the PSL Blue championship game. (Photos by Chardonne’ U of Olivia B. Photography.)