Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
1st & Goal: 2022 Week 9 Review
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 24, 2022
Every league champion has been crowned. All 144 playoff pairings are set.
This fall seemed to fly by, but the football regular season is complete. See below for several of the final steps we took to get there across the state during Week 9.
Bay & Thumb
HEADLINER Davison 28, Lapeer 6 The Cardinals (8-1) clinched the outright Saginaw Valley League South championship as this was a winner-take-all matchup. The victory also avenged a 2021 loss to the Lightning (7-2), and Davison’s defense arguably was the star of this show by limiting a Lapeer attack averaging 39 points per game in one of its most impressive performances of the fall. These two could meet again in a Division 1 District Final. Click for more from the Flint Journal.
Here are the highlights of the Davison at Lapeer football game that aired on Football Fridays Overtime powered by STATE CHAMPS! on @BallySportsDET.@BraylenHimm23 | @DavCardFootball pic.twitter.com/ClNCN2hMZM
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsmich) October 23, 2022
Watch list Gladwin 35, Standish Sterling 7 The Flying G’s (9-0) won one of three matchups of unbeaten teams this weekend, and in doing so finished their second-straight perfect regular season. Standish-Sterling (7-1) has plenty to boast as well as it takes a combined 17-4 record over the last two seasons into these playoffs.
On the move Croswell-Lexington 41, Freeland 34 The Pioneers (7-2) saw their league title chances dissolve with two losses over the last month, but defeating the No. 12 team in Division 4 playoff-point average in Freeland (7-2) was a solid way to enter the postseason. Essexville Garber 34, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 21 The Dukes (6-3) were No. 29 in Division 5 playoff-point average heading into the week but got a four-spot bump in handing Laker (8-1) its only loss. Goodrich 42, Almont 21 The Martians (8-1) will be home throughout the playoffs with this win over Almont (6-3) another solid building block for the postseason.
Greater Detroit
HEADLINER Belleville 42, Brighton 3 Although both teams entered undefeated, few have slowed Belleville over the last few seasons as the Tigers (9-0) ran their winning streak to 20 with this Kensington Lakes Activities Association championship win. Brighton (8-1) had given up only 81 points this season before Belleville scored 42; the Tigers have put up at least 41 in every game this fall. Click for more from the Detroit News.
Watch list Grosse Pointe South 44, Grosse Pointe North 14 With the Norsemen (8-1) eying their first perfect regular season since 1986, the Blue Devils (6-3) swooped in to win their sixth game over their last seven this fall and fifth in a row over their rivals.
On the move Detroit Cass Tech 33, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 14 The Technicians (6-3) were able to hold on to the No. 29 spot in Division 1 playoff-point average with their fifth-straight win. Southfield Arts & Technology 28, River Rouge 21 The Warriors (7-2) rebounded from a Week 8 loss to West Bloomfield with a win over a River Rouge team that while 5-3 is much better than that record as all three defeats were by seven points or fewer. Gibraltar Carlson 38, Brownstown Woodhaven 18 Carlson (8-1) is a co-champion in the Downriver League for the second-straight season, with Trenton after the Trojans (8-1) defeated Southgate Anderson.
Mid-Michigan
HEADLINER Grand Ledge 45, East Lansing 30 The Comets (7-2) were considered emerging entering this season, but they finished the regular season as co-champions in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue. The surge seemed to start with a Week 6 win over DeWitt and carried through with this victory over the Trojans (6-3), who were in first place before falling in their final two games to Grand Ledge and the other co-champion, Holt. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Watch list Belding 36, Hopkins 14 The Black Knights (8-1) finished a perfect run through the Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver and also ended a five-game regular-season losing streak against Hopkins (5-4), which would have shared the title with a win. (Belding did win a playoff game over Hopkins in 2020 after losing the regular-season meeting.)
On the move Lansing Catholic 42, Pewamo-Westphalia 7 The Cougars sat 3-5 with their string of 13 straight playoff appearances potentially on the verge of ending before they posted their most impressive win in downing the Pirates (5-4). Durand 48, Marine City 28 During an undefeated run of impressive performances, Durand (9-0) may have saved the best for last in this win over the Macomb Area Conference Silver champion Mariners (7-2). Mount Pleasant 28, Linden 21 The Oilers (8-1) won another matchup of league champions, as the Eagles (5-4) suffered their second one-score defeat over the last three weeks.
Northern Lower Peninsula
HEADLINER Traverse City St. Francis 45, Detroit Country Day 20 The Gladiators may be favorites in the Division 7 playoffs and certainly are mathematically so as the closed the regular season 9-0 and with a playoff-points average nearly 4.7 points higher than the field. This defeat over a Country Day team (5-3) in line to host both District rounds in Division 5 was among six wins over teams that finished the regular season with winning records. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Watch list Ogemaw Heights 35, Lake City 7 Ogemaw Heights’ six-game winning streak got a nice boost from this big win over the also-playoff bound Trojans (5-4). The Falcons (7-2) also surpassed the six wins they’d totaled over the last two seasons combined.
On the move Gaylord 28, Clare 7 The Blue Devils (6-3) entered Week 9 as the No. 32 team on the Division 3 playoff-point list, but were able to bump up a few spots thanks to this win over playoff-bound Clare (5-4). Frankfort 36, Elk Rapids 14 The Panthers (8-1) tied their most wins since 2017 with their sixth-straight this fall. Elk Rapids (6-3) is headed back to the playoffs for the first time since 2018, despite the defeat. Traverse City Central 14, Traverse City West 13 Even with West (2-7) finishing below .500 for the first time since 2015, this rivalry game remained must-see as Central (5-4) won for the fourth-straight season but with this matching the one-score deciders the teams waged from 2013-18.
Southeast & Border
HEADLINER Clinton 32, Hudson 26 The Redwolves (9-0) made one of the loudest statements of the weekend, not only clinching the Lenawee Country Athletic Association championship for the first time since 2000 but ending Hudson’s state-best 22-game winning streak. The perfect regular season was Clinton’s second in four years (and first since 2019), while Hudson heads to the playoffs at 8-1. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.
Watch list Dexter 45, Chelsea 0 The Dreadnaughts (9-0) finished atop the Division 2 playoff-point average list by more than four points after defeating Chelsea (5-4) for the first time since 1995.
On the move Napoleon 15, Union City 0 After missing out on the playoffs last season despite a 6-3 record, Napoleon has left no doubt this fall with this win in a Cascades/Big 8 crossover of champions giving the Pirates (9-0) their first perfect regular season since 2002. Union City (7-2) lost for the first time since Week 1. Ida 17, Dundee 12 The Bluestreaks (4-5) needed a strong finish to make the playoffs, and edging Dundee (6-3) gave them the boost. Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 41, Ecorse 22 St. Mary (4-5) similarly needed to close on a high note to make the playoffs, and got it by handing Ecorse (8-1) its only loss.
Southwest Corridor
HEADLINER St. Joseph 47, Battle Creek Central 29 This winner-take-all Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference matchup went to the Bears (8-1), who earned their first championship since sharing the title in 2015. St. Joseph turned in one of its best offensive performances while scoring the most points the Bearcats (7-2) have given up in a game this season. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.
Watch list Buchanan 36, Centreville 28 The Bucks (8-1) have gotten a lot of attention in this space lately, with good reason, as they added to their league title with a win over the Southwest 10 Conference champion Bulldogs (6-3).
On the move Constantine 37, Benton Harbor 20 The Falcons (8-1) capped a regular season that saw their only loss by two to Hudson in Week 2, and they enter the Division 6 playoffs No. 6 in playoff-point average. Portage Northern 35, Mattawan 21 The Huskies (6-3) closed on a three-game winning streak to return to the playoffs after missing last season. Plainwell 29, Paw Paw 23 The Trojans (4-5) missed the playoffs but ended with something to build on, stopping a four-game losing streak with this win over the playoff-bound Red Wolves (4-5). Three of Plainwell’s losses were by seven points or fewer.
Upper Peninsula
HEADLINER Bark River-Harris 28, Ishpeming 20 The Broncos helped open the weekend Thursday by clinching the last league title up for grabs in the Upper Peninsula. Downing the Hematites not only gave the Broncos the outright Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Iron championship, but put them at 7-2 to conclude their winningest regular season since 2015. Ishpeming’s loss was its third by eight points or fewer, but it still qualified in Division 8 at 4-5. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Watch list Menominee 42, Kingsford 41 Arguably the most exciting game above the Bridge this season saw the Maroons hold off a final charge by the Flivvers. Menominee (5-4) in doing so solidified its spot in the Division 6 field, while Kingsford (6-3) qualified as No. 12 in Division 5.
On the move Calumet 41, L'Anse 22 The Copper Kings (6-3) were out of contention in the West-PAC Copper but closed with three straight wins to make the playoffs for the 18th time in 19 seasons. L’Anse also advanced for the first time (not counting all-in 2020) since 2013. Sault Ste. Marie 20, Benzie Central 14 (OT) The Blue Devils (6-3) just missed the playoffs for the second-straight season but came back from a midseason three-game losing streak to finish above .500 for the fifth-straight year. St. Ignace 54, Harbor Springs 14 The Saints capped their turnaround regular season at 7-2, their best record since 2016, and as outright champions in the Northern Michigan Football Conference Legacy.
West Michigan
HEADLINER Rockford 38, Caledonia 15 Another winner-take-all decided the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red championship, with the Rams clinching their fourth straight with their third-straight undefeated regular season while sending the Fighting Scots to 8-1. Rockford built a sizable first-half lead in part by locking down a Caledonia offense that entered the game averaging nearly 46 points per. These two could see each other again in a Division 1 District Final. Click for more from FOX 17.
Here are the highlights of the Rockford at Caledonia football game that aired on Football Fridays Overtime powered by STATE CHAMPS! on @BallySportsDET.@RockfordRamsFB | @RockfordAD pic.twitter.com/hDRzyrj5O8
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsmich) October 23, 2022
Watch list Muskegon 55, Muskegon Mona Shores 35 The Big Reds (7-2) seemed to fall out of the statewide conversation after a two-point loss to Zeeland West put them at 3-2. But they need to be talked up again after this big win over Mona Shores (7-2) gave them a share of the O-K Green title and vaulted them to No. 6 in Division 3 playoff-point average. Shores sits No. 9 in Division 2 playoff-point average.
On the move Fruitport 52, Holland Christian 21 The Trojans (7-2) clinched a share of the O-K Blue title and continued to build on their best record since 2012. Reed City 16, Cadillac 8 (OT) The Coyotes (8-1) are riding substantial momentum into the playoffs as the No. 3 team in Division 6 playoff-point average. Grand Rapids West Catholic 39, Hudsonville Unity Christian 18 West Catholic is the No. 1 team on that Division 6 list and the other half of the O-K Blue co-championship after downing last season’s Division 4 runner-up Unity (5-4).
8-Player
HEADLINER Au Gres-Sims 42, Posen 24 The Wolverines finished up an outright championship run in the North Star League Little Dipper, sending Posen (7-2) into second place with its lone league loss. Au Gres-Sims (8-1) has won seven straight games (including a forfeit in Week 8), and held a Posen offense averaging 45 points per game to nearly half that. Click for more from WBKB.
Watch list Deckerville 62, Peck 60 (4 OT) The Eagles (6-3) finished third in the North Central Thumb League Stars but vaulted into the postseason with this win over the Stripes champion Pirates (7-2). The teams hadn’t faced each other since 2019, but Deckerville has won their last seven meetings.
On the move Stephenson 50 Norway 40 This was notable for several reasons – the Eagles secured a spot in the playoff field, they did so against a Norway team (6-3) that’s been considered among the best in 8-player Division 1, and at 6-3 as well Stephenson has its most wins since 2017. Powers North Central 42, Crystal Falls Forest Park 0 The Jets (9-0) finished another Great Lakes Eight Conference West title with their 33rd straight win, and could see Forest Park (7-2) again in a Regional Final. Bridgman 35, Martin 34 The Bees finished their second-straight perfect regular season after moving to 8-player four years ago, with this win over Division 1 contender Martin (7-2) among their most impressive victories of the run.
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PHOTOS Negaunee's Kai Lacar (10) finds a hole and sprints for another Miners touchdown in the second quarter of last week's win over Ishpeming Westwood. (Middle) A Davison ball carrier follows his blocker during Friday's win over Lapeer. (Below) A Cass City ball carrier prepares to take on a Beal City defender. (Photos by Cara Kamps, Terry Lyons and High School Sports Scene, respectively.)