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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

A Swartz Creek ball carrier looks for an opening during Friday’s playoff game against Midland.

1st & Goal: 2022 Playoff Week 1 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 31, 2022

The first week of the MHSAA Football Playoffs features 144 games across the state – and again this weekend, we enjoyed plenty of the intriguing and unexpected.

MI Student AidOf those 144 games, 31 were won by teams playing on the road.

Five undefeated teams lost for the only time this season.

Three teams that entered the postseason at 3-6 or 3-5 were victorious, as were three more teams that entered 4-5.

And to help finish things off Saturday, Waterford Mott defeated Saginaw Heritage 77-63 – with those combined 140 points the second-most ever scored in an MHSAA 11-player game, six off the record set by Climax-Scotts and Fulton in 2017 when Climax-Scotts won 84-62.

There are stories behind all of this weekend’s scores, and we glance at several of them below.  

11-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Detroit Cass Tech 38, West Bloomfield 13 Although both are among the most highly-regarded programs in Michigan, this certainly qualified as an upset as West Bloomfield (8-2) was ranked No. 4 in Division 1 in the state coaches poll while Cass Tech (7-3) was unranked. With big-time athletes all over the field for both teams, the Technicians’ speed stood out as running back Sean Hodges was among stars. Click for more from the Detroit News.

District Digest Grand Ledge 38, Brighton 3 Any other week this would be the “headliner” above as unranked Grand Ledge (8-2) continued to impress in advancing to a District Final for the first time since 2015. No. 10 (tie) Brighton finished 8-2, its only two losses coming in its final two games. Clarkston 62, Lapeer 41 These two met for the second time in three weeks, with No. 7 Clarkston (8-2) adding to its 48-13 win over the Lightning (7-3) the first time. Rochester 21, Rochester Hills Stoney Creek 20 Just two weeks earlier, Stoney Creek (5-5) won the regular-season matchup 43-22. But the Falcons (6-4) not only avenged that loss but four straight to this rival.

11-Player Division 2

HEADLINER South Lyon 30, South Lyon East 27 (2 OT) Just a week after falling to East 27-21, South Lyon avenged with this double-overtime win over its neighbor. The Cougars (7-3) seemed on their way to another victory leading into the fourth quarter before the game went to overtime and the Lions (7-3) eventually prevailed. Click for more from Hometown Life.

District Digest East Lansing 24, Battle Creek Central 0 The Trojans went on the road coming off two straight losses that sunk their league title chances, but posted their third shutout of the fall to end Battle Creek Central’s first winning season since 2018 at 7-4. Portage Northern 44, Byron Center 22 The Huskies quietly have been bouncing back impressively from last season’s 3-6 finish, and they moved to 7-3 with this upset of No. 8 Byron Center (7-3). St. Clair Shores Lakeview 33, Port Huron Northern 27 Lakeview (7-3) also enjoyed a road upset in leaving No. 10 PHN with a berth in the District Finals for the first time since 2019.

11-Player Division 3

HEADLINER Detroit Martin Luther King 41, River Rouge 28 Crusaders standout quarterback Dante Moore started his final playoffs with four touchdown passes against a Rouge defense that was giving up only 8.5 points per game in entering the postseason 5-3. The Panthers’ offense elevated as well against a King defense that was allowing just 15 points per game, but couldn’t keep up as the Crusaders (6-3) improved to 13-2 in the playoffs during Moore’s four seasons. King entered the postseason ranked No. 1 in Division 3, while Rouge was No. 4. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

District Digest Coopersville 28, Cedar Springs 0 The Broncos (7-3) reached seven wins for the first time since 2008 after shutting out a Cedar Springs attack that had averaged 42 points per game during a five-game winning streak that had gotten the Red Hawks into the playoffs at 5-4. Jackson 32, Parma Western 25 The Vikings (6-4) guaranteed their winningest season since 2018 with their first playoff victory since 2015, while ending Western’s season at 6-4. Zeeland West 36, Lowell 28 The Red Arrows (6-4) came back from a double-digit deficit to tie things up in the fourth quarter, but the No. 6 Dux (9-1) scored one more time with just more than eight minutes to play and held off Lowell the rest of the way.

11-Player Division 4

HEADLINER Livonia Clarenceville 48, Redford Union 46 (OT) The Trojans (6-4) entered the playoffs coming off two straight losses during which they’d scored a combined 102 points but lost by six and then one. This opener played out similarly, but this time Clarenceville hung on for the win after putting up its points on a Union defense that had given up only 50 total during a 9-0 regular season that saw the Panthers enter the playoffs ranked No. 4 in the coaches poll. Click for photos from Hometown Life.

District Digest Charlotte 27, Chelsea 15 The Orioles (9-1) added to their best season since 2004 this win over last season’s Division 4 champion. This was Chelsea’s earliest season conclusion since not making the playoffs in 2013; the Bulldogs finished 5-5. Freeland 61, North Branch 41 The No. 6 Falcons (8-2) bumped their average scoring per game to 41 points with a season high against the Blue Water Area Conference co-champion Broncos (8-2). Niles 56, Three Rivers 32 The Vikings (6-4) have won five straight games, and this avenged a 27-21 Week 3 loss to the Wildcats (5-5).

11-Player Division 5

HEADLINER Flint Hamady 36, Armada 35 The Hawks earned their best win of an outstanding season, edging the other Blue Water Area Conference co-champion (see North Branch above) despite trailing by a touchdown heading into the fourth quarter. Hamady (9-1) is heading to the District Finals for the first time since 2018. The 36 points were the most allowed by Armada (7-3) this season. Click for more from the Macomb Daily.

District Digest Kingsford 34, Kingsley 30 The Flivvers (7-3) scored with 23 seconds to play to earn their first District Final trip since 2017. Kingsley finished 7-3, with two of its three losses decided by a combined five points. Corunna 34, Williamston 27 The No. 10-ranked Cavaliers (8-2) edged the No. 9 Hornets (7-3) to earn their third-straight trip to a District Final. All three Williamston losses this season were by eight points or fewer. Flat Rock 27, Dundee 22 The Rams (7-3) earned their first playoff win since their Class C championship season of 1976 – and after going a combined 9-25 over the last four years. Dundee finished 6-4.

11-Player Division 6

HEADLINER Lansing Catholic 28, Durand 21 It’s tough to say if this was the most stunning of two Division 6 wins over teams that finished the regular season undefeated. Lansing Catholic entered 4-5, but also is the reigning Division 6 champion – and the Cougars have come on strong with three straight wins and despite opening this season 0-3. No. 7 Durand had won four games decided by a touchdown or less on the way to its 9-0 start, but couldn’t hold onto an early lead this time. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

District Digest Manistee 28, Boyne City 27 This was the other win over an undefeated opponent, as Manistee (7-3) earned its first trip to the District Finals after hitting the road to deal Boyne City (9-1) its only loss in also the No. 6 Ramblers’ only game decided by fewer than 15 points. Standish-Sterling 30, Clare 29 (OT) The No. 10 (tied) Panthers (8-1) saw their potential perfect regular season stopped short in Week 9, but extended their playoffs with an overtime 2-point conversion to edge the Pioneers (5-5). Constantine 54, Buchanan 12 The Falcons’ continued to dominate on both sides of the ball, besting their points for and points against averages in stopping the Bucks (8-2) and improving to 9-1. Menominee 44, Calumet 39 In running 38 times for 330 yards and five touchdowns, Brayden Nelson broke or tied three Calumet school records. But Landon Bardowski scored with less than a minute left to put the Maroons (6-4) ahead for good. Calumet finished 6-4.

11-Player Division 7

HEADLINER Ravenna 10, North Muskegon 7 Three weeks after falling to North Muskegon 28-7 in the game that eventually decided the West Michigan Conference Rivers title, Ravenna (7-3) is headed back to the District Finals for the third time in four seasons after one of its strongest defensive performances of the fall. North Muskegon ended 8-2, its best record since 2006. Click for more from CatchMark SportsNet.

District Digest Benzie Central 21, Charlevoix 14 This was right up there with the biggest stunners of the weekend as Benzie (4-6) entered 3-6 but edged the No. 9-ranked Rayders (8-2). Manchester 22, Grass Lake 19 Two weeks after falling to Grass Lake 35-19, Manchester avenged to move to 6-4 and guarantee its winningest season since 2015. Grass Lake ended 5-5. Hudson 50, Union City 13 The No. 3 Tigers (8-1) fell short in their league title bid this season, but defeated a league champion in Union City (7-3) to reach the District Finals.

11-Player Division 8

HEADLINER Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 34, Harbor Beach 20 As noted in Friday’s preview, these two made up half of one of the strongest Districts in any division, and No. 5 MLS (9-1) will now meet undefeated and top-ranked Ubly after holding on against the No. 6 Pirates (8-2). Harbor Beach had given up more than 16 points in only one other game – against Ubly – and MLS continued a marvelous turnaround after going a combined 5-11 over the last two seasons. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

District Digest Detroit Community 38, Mount Clemens 28 The Battling Bathers (7-3) had won the Week 8 matchup for the Charter School Conference East title, 44-24, but Community (6-4) avenged with its first playoff win in 12 years as a program. East Jordan 6, Frankfort 0 (OT) The Red Devils (6-4) secured their first playoff win since 1999 by earning their first shutout of the season and scoring the game’s only points after regulation. Frankfort (8-2) had won their Week 6 meeting 20-14. Bark River-Harris 44, St. Ignace 20 This matchup of league champions went to the Broncos (8-2), who will see Iron Mountain in a District Final for the second time in three seasons. St. Ignace finished 7-3, its best since 2016 and after going a combined 3-13 over the last two seasons.

8-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Deckerville 14, Kingston 8 The No. 5-ranked Cardinals’ run to their first perfect regular season since 1999 included a 56-20 Week 6 win over Deckerville, their first victory over the Eagles over the last 13 seasons of playing them annually. But Deckerville (7-3) hasn’t lost since, and this actually was the Eagles’ third-straight victory by eight points or fewer. It was also the only single-digit game this fall for Kingston (9-1). Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.

Regional Roundup Newberry 54, Rogers City 6 What seemed heading in as arguably the top matchup of the weekend in Division 1 didn’t end up that way as No. 6 Newberry allowed single-digit scoring for the sixth-straight game and with No. 4 Rogers City (9-1) averaging 46 points per game entering the contest. Breckenridge 36, Fulton 32 After Breckenridge (8-2) won their Week 1 meeting 40-36, the Huskies similarly edged the Pirates (7-3) in their first 8-player playoff game. Brown City 66, Auburn Hills Oakland Christian 38 The No. 9 Green Devils (9-1), also in their first season of 8-player, earned their first playoff win since 1997. No. 7 Oakland Christian (8-2), in its second season of 8-player, also was making its first playoff appearance in its new format.

8-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Mendon 44, Climax-Scotts 18 The No. 7 Hornets opened with a strong move, defeating No. 3 Climax-Scotts to reach the Regional Finals for the second time in two seasons of 8-player. Climax-Scotts (8-2) was averaging 42 points per game entering the weekend, but couldn’t find that stride against a defense that hasn’t given up more than 17 points in a game since Week 3. Mendon (8-2) is now a combined 16-5 over its two 8-player seasons. See below for more from FOX 17.

Regional Roundup Lake Linden-Hubbell 44, Crystal Falls Forest Park 12 The No. 5 Trojans (7-3) had won these teams’ Week 6 meeting 22-14. With this win, the Lakes (7-3) earned another rematch – against top-ranked Powers North Central. Morrice 62, Peck 6 Two regular-season losses took No. 9 Morrice out of its league’s title mix, but the Orioles opened the playoffs with this win over the No. 8 Pirates (7-3), winners of the North Central Thumb League Stripes. Gaylord St. Mary 47, Central Lake 6 The No. 10 Snowbirds (8-2) have won six straight and by an average margin of 45 points during the run. St. Mary also won the first meeting with Central Lake (7-3) in Week 2, 48-36.

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PHOTO A Swartz Creek ball carrier looks for an opening during Friday’s playoff game against Midland. (Photo by Melody Cook.)