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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

A Livonia Franklin ball carrier finds an opening Friday against Temperance Bedford.

1st & Goal: 2022 Playoff Week 2 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 7, 2022

Only 72 teams remain in this season’s MHSAA Football Playoffs. And several of them this weekend took advantage of opportunities to avenge past losses with District and Regional titles on the line.

MI Student AidMost were seeing rivals for the second time this season. Others were running into opponents they’ve faced in playoffs past – and a number of teams are moving on that were stopped the last time around.

Below is a glance at a number of those results as we move another step closer to 8-Player Finals at Northern Michigan University in two weeks and 11-Player Finals at Ford Field the weekend after that.

11-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Caledonia 14, Rockford 13 (2 OT) Only two weeks earlier, Caledonia fell to Rockford 38-15 with a league title and perfect regular season on the line. But the No. 8 Fighting Scots (10-1) avenged by handing the No. 3 Rams (10-1) their lone loss, clinched by Mason McKenzie’s 2-point conversion run on the game’s final play. Click for more from FOX 17.

District Digest Clarkston 49, Davison 40 The No. 5 Cardinals (9-2) got within two of the lead late, but No. 7 Clarkston (9-2) put away the win with Ethan Clark’s sixth touchdown of the game. Grand Ledge 21, Holt 20 The Comets (9-2) scored first and continued to hold Holt off until the end, the final defensive stand coming with just under two minutes to play to avenge a 14-6 Week 3 loss to the Rams (7-4). Macomb Dakota 17, Romeo 0 No. 2 Dakota (11-0) posted its third-straight shutout to finish a season sweep of Romeo (8-3) after also winning their Week 6 meeting 21-14.

11-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 33, Muskegon Mona Shores 21 The No. 4 Rangers (11-0) avenged playoff losses to the No. 7 Sailors (8-3) from the last two seasons, rolling up 30+ points for the fifth straight game. FHC quarterback Justin Osterhouse starred throwing and running. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

District Digest Harrison Township L’Anse Creuse 49, St. Clair Shores Lakeview 7 Not only did L’Anse Creuse (7-4) avenge a 37-0 Week 6 loss to Lakeview (7-4), but the Lancers earned their first District title in doing so. East Lansing 34, Portage Northern 24 The Trojans (8-3) continued to bounce back from a two-game losing streak to end the regular-season, downing the Huskies (7-4) to clinch their third District title in six seasons. Midland 41, Waterford Mott 34 The No. 5 Chemics (10-1) earned their third District title in five seasons by holding off a Mott offense that scored a combined 200 points over its final four games in finishing 8-3.

11-Player Division 3

HEADLINER DeWitt 56, Mount Pleasant 49 (3 OT) This piled a season’s worth of nail-biters into one game, as No. 9 DeWitt (8-3) scored on the final play in regulation to force overtime, the teams traded scores through the first two extra sets of downs and the Panthers scored to start the third overtime and then held the No. 5 Oilers (9-2) scoreless. It was the second-straight season these two met in a District Final, with DeWitt also advancing in 2021. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

District Digest Trenton 17, Gibraltar Carlson 7 After Trenton’s 27-6 Week 4 loss to No. 10 Carlson eventually resulted in the two teams sharing the Downriver League title, the Trojans (10-1) nearly flipped the score to claim a District championship. Zeeland West 36, St. Joseph 18 The No. 6 Dux (10-1) also did some avenging after falling in a District opener last season to the No. 8 Bears (9-2), who hadn’t lost since Week 1. Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 30, Walled Lake Western 22 Brother Rice reached 5-5 by holding off a Western attack that averaged 42 points per game entering the weekend. The District title was Rice’s second straight. Western ended 9-2 and was ranked No. 2 entering the postseason.

11-Player Division 4

HEADLINER Goodrich 10, Freeland 9 The No. 6 Falcons (8-3) carried a 9-0 lead into the fourth quarter. Goodrich made it 9-7 on a Jace Simerson run early in the final period, setting up an incredible series of moments over the final seconds as the Martians (10-1) blocked a Freeland punt attempt, the ball came to rest with two seconds to play, and Caden Kolanowski kicked the 25-yard game-winning field goal as time expired. See below for more from WJRT.

District Digest Riverview 53, Tecumseh 30 No. 3 Riverview (11-0) slowed down a Tecumseh offense averaging 51 points per game entering the weekend and posted its highest score of the season as well in a matchup of previously-undefeated teams. Tecumseh ended 10-1 and was ranked No. 7. Dearborn Divine Child 30, Livonia Clarenceville 24 (2 OT) The Falcons (9-2) needed a 2-point conversion to send the game to double overtime, and then stopped Clarenceville (6-5) to close out the District title win. Grand Rapids South Christian 35, Hudsonville Unity Christian 20 The No. 2 Sailors (11-0) won their third-straight District title, stopping Unity’s pursuit of a possible fourth in five seasons. The Crusaders, last season’s Division 4 runners-up, finished 6-5.

11-Player Division 5

HEADLINER Flint Hamady 33, Marine City 27 The Hawks (10-1), who were playing in Division 7 just six years ago, defeated a second league champion this playoffs to earn this Division 5 District title – the program’s second ever, but also second in five years to go with the championship won in Division 6 in 2018. Marine City (8-3) was last season’s Division 5 runner-up. See below for more from the D Zone.

District Digest Flat Rock 29, Romulus Summit Academy North 28 The Rams (8-3) earned their first District title with a comeback capped by a 23-yard game-winning field goal by Mitchell Smith with 15.5 seconds to play. Summit finished 8-3, tying its winningest season of 2019. Muskegon Oakridge 30, Belding 8 The No. 4 Eagles’ defense continued to shine, this time stopping a Belding offense averaging 43 points per game. Oakridge moved to 10-1, and the No. 6 Black Knights ended at 9-2. Portland 34, Corunna 28 The No. 10 Cavaliers (8-3) pulled within six of the lead with just under three minutes to play, but got no closer as No. 3 Portland (10-1) clinched its fourth District title in six seasons.

11-Player Division 6

HEADLINER Warren Michigan Collegiate 14, Madison Heights Bishop Foley 0 Last season’s Division 6 runner-up and current No. 4-ranked Michigan Collegiate (10-1) posted one of its most impressive defensive performances of the last two seasons in shutting out a Ventures offense averaging more than 39 points per game. Bishop Foley (10-1) closed its first season reaching double-digit wins and had entered the playoffs ranked No. 9. Click for more from the Macomb Daily.

District Digest Gladstone 36, Manistee 14 No. 10 (tied) Gladstone (9-2) not only claimed its first District title since 2008, but earned a chance to avenge a Week 7 loss to No. 3 Negaunee this week. Manistee started 3-3 but closed at 7-4 for its winningest season since 2018. Millington 14, Standish-Sterling 12 Both defenses impressed, but Millington (10-1) made some crunch-time stops in avenging a 28-24 loss to the No. 10 (tied) Panthers (8-2) in Week 5. Grand Rapids West Catholic 50, Constantine 24 Top-ranked West Catholic (10-1) reached 50 points for the second time this season and held No. 8 Constantine (9-2) to almost half of its 47 ppg average entering the weekend.

11-Player Division 7

HEADLINER Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 36, Detroit Central 28 The Falcons (6-5) handed top-ranked Central (10-1) its lone loss to clinch their fourth District title in six seasons. The Trail Blazers were giving up only 4.7 points per game entering the weekend, but St. Mary was able to build a lead and hold on to down a second undefeated opponent over the last three weeks. Click for more from the Monroe News.

District Digest Jackson Lumen Christi 35, Hudson 0 The No. 4 Titans (8-3) shut out a Hudson offense that was averaging 38 points per game, making the No. 3 Tigers (9-2) the sixth of their last seven opponents to score seven points or fewer. Lawton 35, Schoolcraft 21 Last season’s Division 7 runner-up and current No. 10-ranked Lawton (9-2) finished a season sweep of Schoolcraft (7-4) after also defeating the Eagles 49-14 in Week 7 to decide the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley title. Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 28, Montrose 14 No. 6 Laker (10-1) finished a repeat District title run and reached double-digit wins for the first time since 2017, ending Montrose’s season at 7-4.

11-Player Division 8

HEADLINER Fowler 28, Beal City 27 The No. 8 Eagles handed No. 3 Beal City its only loss of the season, in doing so clinching its second District title in four seasons. Fowler scored the most points the Aggies (10-1) gave up this fall and came back after trailing by a score at halftime. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

District Digest White Pigeon 34, Reading 20 After avenging a Week 5 loss to No. 10 (tied) Centreville to open the playoffs, White Pigeon (8-3) did the same in this District title matchup after losing the No. 9 Reading 33-14 in their season opener. Clarkston Everest Collegiate 42, Marine City Cardinal Mooney 21 The Mountaineers (8-3) avenged a league-title deciding loss, having fallen to No. 10 (tied) Cardinal Mooney 15-8 in Week 6. The District title was Everest’s third straight. Ubly 49, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 14 The top-ranked Bearcats (11-0) earned their fourth-straight District title by limiting an MLS offense averaging 45 ppg entering the weekend. At 9-2, the No. 5 Cardinals finished their winningest season since 2016.

A Grand Ledge receiver hauls in a pass against Holt.

8-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Martin 56, Adrian Lenawee Christian 14 There will be a new Division 1 champion this month, as No. 3 Martin (9-2) ended No. 8 Lenawee Christian’s opportunity to extend a two-season reign. A year ago, the Cougars defeated Martin 36-14 in a Semifinal. But the Clippers found their stride on both sides of the ball in this Regional title game, with the 56 points the most Lenawee Christian (8-3) has given up in a game since switching to 8-player in 2020. Click for more from FOX 17.

Regional Roundup Munising 36, Newberry 22 This matchup was decided by 14 points for the second time this season, but with much more scoring than in the top-ranked Mustangs’ 14-0 win in Week 2. Munising improved to 11-0, while No. 6 Newberry ended 9-2 and its winningest season since 2004. Merrill 68, Breckenridge 28 The No. 2 Vandals (11-0) have won all of their games by at least 22 points this season, that closest win coming over Breckenridge (8-3) in Week 2 before nearly doubling up the margin in this rematch. Brown City 52, Deckerville 6 The No. 9 Green Devils’ 8-player debut almost couldn’t be going better. Brown City (10-1) claimed its first Regional title since 1997, in the process earning an opportunity to avenge its lone loss to Martin. Deckerville, surging at the end with a four-game winning streak, ended at 7-4.

8-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Mendon 46, Colon 44 These neighbors met for the first time in 8-player football, and with the kind of finish hoped for with a long-anticipated matchup. Mendon took the lead after a fourth-down conversion set up Jack McCaw’s go-ahead scoring run with 3:39 to play. The No. 7 Hornets held on to hand No. 2 Colon (10-1) its only defeat and will play in their first Semifinal since 2017. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.  

Regional Roundup Powers North Central 45, Lake Linden-Hubbell 6 The top-ranked Jets (11-0) finished a season sweep of the Lakes (7-4) and ran their three-year winning streak to 35. Marion 14, Gaylord St. Mary 0 The No. 4 Eagles (11-0) are headed to the Semifinals for the third-straight season and have yet to give up a point in the playoffs. No. 10 St. Mary finished its winningest season since 2017 at 8-3. Morrice 34, Au Gres-Sims 14 The No. 9 Orioles piled up 409 yards including 386 on the ground and came back from an early deficit to win their first Regional title since 2019. The No. 6 Wolverines finished 7-2, their only other defeat in Week 2.

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PHOTOS (Top) A Livonia Franklin ball carrier finds an opening Friday against Temperance Bedford. (Middle) A Grand Ledge receiver hauls in a pass against Holt. (Photos by Douglas Bargerstock and Michele Hoffman, respectively.)