Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
1st & Goal: 2022 11-Player Semifinals Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
November 17, 2022
Snow has blanketed the majority of the state over the last few days. But it’s nearly a guarantee that the players on the field for this weekend’s 11-player Semifinals will be the last to notice it’s gotten wetter and colder outside.
They’re focused on getting to Ford Field, and a snowy mid-November game is just part of the unique path traveled by championship contenders in Michigan.
All 16 Semifinals will be viewable on MHSAA.tv with subscription, with Friday’s Belleville/Detroit Cass Tech game in Division 1 to be broadcast live on Bally Sports Detroit’s primary channel. The other 15 Semifinals will be played Saturday; click for the full schedule.
Below is a look at all 16 games that will determine this season’s Finals matchups.
Division 1
Detroit Cass Tech (9-3) vs. Belleville (12-0) at Novi – FRIDAY
Cass Tech has won eight straight games, with its last five victories as impressive a string as anyone has conquered statewide. Senior quarterback Leeshaun Mumphfield (1,712 yards/25 TDs passing) is a proven leader and has standouts like senior running back Sean Hodges (846 yards/12 TDs rushing) and freshman Corey Sadler Jr. (665 yards/8 TDs receiving) to take away some of the playmaking pressure. Belleville’s 23-game winning streak is on the line, and the reigning champion has plenty of big-game experience too with sophomore quarterback Bryce Underwood (2,479 yards/34 TDs passing) and junior running back Jeremiah Beasley (1,088 yards/23 TDs rushing) showing the way.
Clarkston (10-2) vs. Caledonia (11-1) at DeWitt
These teams have combined to run for 7,458 yards this season, perhaps the best fit for what weather conditions might provide this weekend. Caledonia has a pair of 1,000-yard rushers – junior running back Brock Townsend (1,130/16 TDs) and senior quarterback Mason McKenzie (1,441/19), who also has thrown for 1,356 yards and 19 touchdowns. Clarkston’s top five runners all average at least seven yards per carry, but senior running back Ethan Clark is shouldering the load with 2,542 yards – at 10.1 per carry – and 30 touchdowns on the ground. Both teams have avenged a regular-season loss during the playoffs, Caledonia to Rockford and Clarkston to Davison.
Division 2
Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (12-0) vs. Dexter (12-0) at Portage Northern
Dexter is playing for its first championship game berth, and Forest Hills Central for its first since 1994. A Rangers defense giving up only 7.9 points per game will face its strongest challenge as senior running back Cole Cabana (1,433 yards/26 TDs rushing) and senior quarterback Reeves Taylor (2,248 yards/30 TDs passing) give the Dreadnaughts a variety of options on the offensive side of the ball. Not that FHC doesn’t have the same, especially with senior quarterback Justin Osterhouse’s ability to make plays rushing (654 yards/15 TDs) and throwing (1,070 yards/13 TDs passing). Dexter’s defense has been similarly special too, giving up only 9.3 ppg.
Birmingham Groves (9-3) vs. Warren De La Salle Collegiate (11-1) at Troy Athens
Groves had rebounded off 3-6 and 2-7 seasons and accelerated after a 4-3 start to return to the Semifinals, impressing especially with last week’s 32-25 win over Livonia Franklin. Senior running back Josh Woods went over 1,000 yards rushing for the season in that victory, and Franklin was the first team in six weeks to score more than 12 points on the Falcons. Reigning champion De La Salle has put up more than 4,600 yards in total offense and will challenge Groves beginning with senior quarterback Brady Drogosh, who has thrown for 1,839 yards and 33 touchdowns and run for 1,088 yards and 13 scores. The Pilots have allowed more than 16 points just once, in their lone loss two months ago.
Division 3
DeWitt (9-3) vs. Muskegon (10-2) at Greenville
This will be the fourth time these two have matched up over the last six seasons and third time in Semifinals over the last four years. The Big Reds’ losses this fall were to De La Salle and Zeeland West, the latter avenged last week. Their top playmakers are all juniors – quarterback M’Khi Guy leads in rushing (1,297 yards/18 TDs) and passing (614 yards/10 TDs), while Destin Piggee (318 yards/4 TDs receiving, 713/5 rushing) and Jakob Price (863 yards/14 TDs rushing) provide plenty of options. All three of DeWitt’s losses were by seven or fewer points, and the Panthers have grown up quickly this fall after several leaders graduated from the teams that reached Finals the last two seasons. Senior Bryce Kurncz does a lot of everything, leading the team in rushing (1,395 yards/17 TDs) and receiving (727 yards/11 TDs) while also throwing for four scores, returning punts and starting on defense. A variety of others contribute too, including sophomore Abram Larner who is second on the team in rushing and receiving yardage.
Detroit Martin Luther King (8-3) vs. Mason (12-0) at Westland John Glenn
The reigning Division 3 champion King is seeking to reach the Finals for the fourth time in five seasons, which included 2019 in Division 2. Senior quarterback Dante Moore is the name everyone knows, and rightly so as he’s thrown for 1,787 yards and 24 touchdowns in his fourth season directing the offense. But senior running back Sterling Anderson Jr. is another of many to note, as he’s run for 918 yards and 12 scores and caught 36 passes including four for touchdowns. Mason is certainly less familiar statewide at this point; this will be the Bulldogs’ second Semifinal in two seasons as they seek their first Finals appearance. But they’re starting to gain plenty of attention, especially sophomore quarterback Cason Carswell (2,141 yards/33 TDs passing) and junior running back AJ Martell (1,221 yards/20 TDs rushing).
Division 4
Edwardsburg (11-1) vs. Grand Rapids South Christian (12-0) at Battle Creek Harper Creek
A season that started differently than usual for Edwardsburg with a loss is shaping up the same as the rest lately as the Eddies will play in their third straight and sixth Semifinal over the last seven seasons – and with that opening-night opponent, Grand Rapids West Catholic, still playing as well. Edwardsburg again relies on the run game – it’s thrown 21 passes, but rushed for 4,343 yards led by senior backs Brett Allen and Andrew Colvin, who have combined for 1,957 yards and 27 scores on the ground. South Christian has followed the lead of senior quarterback Jacob DeHaan to its first Semifinal since 2014. He’s run for 949 yards and 14 touchdowns and thrown for 2,308 yards and 28 scores.
Goodrich (11-1) vs. Riverview (12-0) at Rochester
Goodrich is another team that didn’t get down after a season-opening loss, as the Martians won their next 11 games to reach the Semifinals for the first time. They have been balanced almost to the yard with just north of 1,600 rushing and 1,600 passing. Senior running back Jace Simerson has shouldered much of the load running for 1,130 yads and 15 touchdowns, with senior quarterback Gavin Hart balancing that out with 1,612 yards and 19 scores through the air. They’ll go against a Riverview team that’s won two straight games where the Pirates and their opponents have combined for 80 or more points. Jacob Shank (1,603 yards/28 TDs rushing), Anthony Bowman (1,026/11) and Max Lockhart (892/10) lead a ground game averaging 8.8 yards per carry.
Division 5
Gladwin (12-0) vs. Grand Rapids Catholic Central (11-1) at Ithaca
Grand Rapids Catholic Central has won the last two Division 5 championships and the 2019 Division 4 title before that – and while most of the star power has turned over since last year, the new playmakers have provided similar results. Junior running back Kellen Russell-Dixon is averaging nine yards per carry for 1,406 total and 17 touchdowns on the ground, while junior quarterback Connor Wolf has thrown for 2,622 yards and 30 scores. No opponent has gotten closer than 19 points since the Cougars’ 36-34 loss to South Christian in Week 6. Gladwin can turn to a defense that’s given up only 8.4 points per game and 4.1 yards per play. The Flying G’s will also employ several options offensively, with senior Earl Esiline at 1,048 yards and 14 touchdowns rushing, senior running back Logan Kokotovich at 833 and 11, respectively, and senior quarterback Nick Wheeler having thrown 11 touchdown passes and run for 19 scores.
Detroit Country Day (8-3) vs. Frankenmuth (12-0) at Lapeer
After falling in the Regional Final to eventual Division 4 champion Chelsea last season, Country Day will play in its third Semifinal in four seasons and coming off both its highest-scoring game of this fall and lowest-scoring defensive effort last week in a 44-7 win over Flat Rock. Junior fullback Gabe Winowich (833 yards/11 TDs) has run for nearly half the team’s rush yards, and senior Gabe Zeldes is another intriguing playmaker – he’s caught nine touchdowns passes, returning three of his five interceptions for scores and also found the end zone on a kickoff return. They’ll try to get past a Frankenmuth defense giving up just 5.3 points per game – and not more than seven since Week 3. The Eagles have allowed only eight offensive touchdowns this season. They also spread things around on offense, as junior Griffin Barker, senior Sam Barger and senior quarterback Aidan Hoard all have run for at least 10 touchdowns. Hoard also has thrown for 16 scores.
Division 6
Negaunee (12-0) vs. Reed City (11-1) at Gaylord
Negaunee enters its first Semifinal since 2003 following just its second single-digit game this season, and Gladstone last week also was the first opponent in five weeks to score on a Miners defense giving up only 6.3 points per game. A pair of 1,000-yard rushers set the pace offensively – senior Nico Lukkarinen (1,124 yards/18 TDs) and junior Kai Lacar (1,082/16 TDs). Reed City most recently played a Semifinal in 2017 and is seeking its first championship game berth. A high-producing offense churns with three rushers with at least 900 yards led by senior running back Bryson Hughes (1,215 yards/15 TDs rushing.)
Clinton (12-0) vs. Grand Rapids West Catholic (11-1) at Coldwater
Clinton is playing in its second Semifinal in three seasons after last week’s 31-30 win over 2021 runner-up Warren Michigan Collegiate. The Redwolves have capitalized on 29 turnovers by opponents this fall, and also feature a strong running attack with senior back Bradyn Lehman leading with 1,005 yards and 16 TDs rushing plus five receiving scores. West Catholic is headed back to the Semifinals for the first time since 2017 after winning the first three games of these playoffs by an average of 33 points per. Senior running back Timmy Kloska has piled up 1,852 yards and 30 touchdowns on the ground.
Division 7
New Lothrop (10-2) vs. Traverse City St. Francis (12-0) at Clare
This is a rematch of the 2020 Final, won by New Lothrop 42-35. The Gladiators have won their games this fall by an average of 33 points per after suffering their lone 2021 loss in the Semifinals by seven points to eventual champion Pewamo-Westphalia. Senior quarterback Wyatt Nausadis is just one of several talented playmakers; he’s run for 984 yards and 10 touchdowns and thrown for 1,192 and 17. New Lothrop’s losses were by a combined three points to a pair of Division 6 league opponents. Junior quarterback Jack Kulhanek provides similar run-pass options, having thrown for 1,682 yards and 25 touchdowns and run for 1,342 yards and 17 scores.
Napoleon (12-0) vs. Jackson Lumen Christi (9-3) at Chelsea
Both have great stories. Napoleon was 1-8 two years ago, missed the playoffs last season after improving to 6-3, and followed up with this perfect run that has included four wins by eight points or fewer including last week’s over Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central. Lumen Christi is a frequent visitor to the Semifinals but started this fall 0-3 and hasn’t lost since, edging Lawton 7-6 last week to advance. Senior running back Bart Laretz is the key cog for the Pirates’ offense with 1,973 yards and 15 touchdowns rushing. Senior quarterback Joe Lathers (678 yards/15 TDs rushing) and senior running back Derrick Walker (968/15) key another powerful Titans running attack.
Division 8
Ubly (12-0) vs. Iron Mountain (11-1) at Petoskey
This will be Ubly’s fourth Semifinal in four years as the Bearcats seek their first championship, and last year’s five-point Semifinal loss was their only defeat over the last two seasons. They’ve defeated their opponents this season 49-6 on average, stacking up 4,400 rushing yards led by senior Mark Heilig (1,151 yards/26 TDs rushing) and junior Evan Peruski (1,158/20). Iron Mountain last played in a Semifinal in 2018, and got past Evart 34-33 last week in its first close game since a Week 1 five-point loss to Negaunee. Senior quarterback Joe Colavecchi directs a balanced attack and has thrown for 1,590 yards and 20 scores, and junior Luke Wolfe is the leading rusher and also has five interceptions.
Clarkston Everest Collegiate (9-3) vs. Ottawa Lake Whiteford (12-0) at Brownstown Woodhaven
Everest Collegiate is back at a Semifinal for the second time in three seasons after winning eight of its last nine games – and avenging the lone defeat of that string. An offense that’s run for more than 2,100 yards and thrown for more than 1,500 has posted three of its four highest-scoring games over the last month. Whiteford got through its closest matchup of the season last week, 38-26 against White Pigeon, and has won its games by an average score of 50-13. Whiteford boasts two 1,000-yard rushers plus has enjoyed school record-setting performances from senior quarterback Shea Ruddy (19 TD passes) and junior linebacker Jake Iott.
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PHOTO Ottawa Lake Whiteford's Hunter DeBarr gets up the sideline against Petersburg Summerfield. (Photo by Natalie McCormack.)