Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Following Underwood's Lead, Belleville Finishes Perfect Season with Finals Repeat

By Scott DeCamp
Special for MHSAA.com

November 26, 2022

DETROIT – Wearing a gray suit, white dress shirt and patterned tie, DeJuan Rogers was dressed "to take care of business" Saturday afternoon at Ford Field.

And with Belleville’s interim head football coach making calls and sensational sophomore quarterback Bryce Underwood making many plays, the Tigers certainly did so, finishing a repeat Division 1 championship run to conclude this time a perfect season as well. 

Belleville wore down Caledonia, 35-17, to earn that second-straight championship. Both have come under the direction of Underwood – a 6-foot-4, 200-pounder rated as the No. 1 prospect at his position in his class nationally.

On Saturday, he finished 15-of-25 passing for 155 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Underwood also rushed 10 times for a game-high 149 yards, including a 48-yard TD scramble early in the fourth quarter that gave his team some breathing room at 28-17.

“Really just taking what they give me,” said Underwood, who already holds scholarship offers from the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame and several others. “I’d say, being back on this field, I wasn’t nervous because I know what we’ve got to do and knew what we needed to do to win the game.”

Tigers quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) sprints downfield as Caledonia’s Maddox Greenfield (21) works to keep stride.Said Rogers: “You know, second year, two championships and he’s got a lot on his plate. Everybody is watching him and just to keep his composure and do what’s asked of him … it’s not always the big play – not the 70-, 80-yard touchdown – just do what’s asked of him, I thought it was amazing.”

Caledonia (12-2), which made its second Finals appearance and first since the Fighting Scots captured the Division 3 title in 2005, had Belleville on its heels for much of the first half.

The Scots led 7-0 in the first quarter and 14-7 in the second. They had a chance to build upon their margin before halftime, but a timely interception by Adrian Walker on a tipped pass at the Tigers 2 and a 13-yard sack by Lamar Fairfax on 4th-and-4 from the Tigers 34 snuffed out potential Scots scoring drives.

With 15 seconds left in the first half, Underwood connected with Walker on a 7-yard scoring pass to tie it at 14 heading into the break.

Caledonia regained the lead, 17-14, on Luke Vogler’s 22-yard field goal with 2:06 left in the third quarter, but it was all Belleville after that. Jeremiah Beasley ripped off a 36-yard TD run, Underwood had his 48-yard scamper and the Tigers put it away with 3:51 remaining on a 25-yard scoring toss to Mychal Yharbrough.

Colbey Reed rounded out Belleville’s scoring with a tackle-shedding 38-yard run to tie it at 7 late in the first quarter.

“I mean, we expected to come out and compete. I felt like we were as good as they were. I think we needed to score and finish a couple drives early,” Caledonia coach Derek Pennington said. 

“I could tell at the end that they had worn us down. We were giving up 50 pounds a guy, so obviously as the game progressed, we knew they were going to wear us down and we needed to get a bigger lead. We came out, had a good plan – we just needed to finish (a couple drives in the first half).”

Caledonia senior quarterback Mason McKenzie finished with a team-high 134 rushing yards on 23 carries. He was 6-of-18 passing for 77 yards with two interceptions.

Belleville’s Colbey Reed (23) picks an opening.  Brock Townsend scored on 1-yard plunges in both the first and second quarters for the Fighting Scots.

“I mean, we had a great season, so like Coach P said, we’ve got to keep our heads high, but it definitely sucks to lose your last game,” McKenzie said. “It’s my last game at Caledonia, so it’s definitely tough but, I mean, we had a great season. There’s not a much better experience than this. It was really awesome here, but it sucks to lose.”

Beasley paced Belleville defensively with seven tackles, while Blake Herron made seven stops for Caledonia to lead his team.

Fighting Scots senior defensive end Derek Pennington Jr., son of the coach, said that Underwood’s being elusive and tough to bring down made it a challenge, plus of course “he threw absolute darts in the middle of the field.”

“He’s a 5-star kid. He’s the No. 1 quarterback in his class, he’s 6-4 … I mean, he’s a great player,” coach Derek Pennington said. “We had a bunch of kids from Caledonia chasing him around. He’s a good kid and hats off to him – he’s obviously got a bright future.”

Caledonia, which was the smallest school in Division 1 enrollment-wise with 1,490 students, was battle-tested by the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red featuring the likes of Rockford, Grandville and other traditionally strong programs.

Belleville, with an enrollment of 1,789, saw its toughest regular-season challenges during the final weeks before playoff selection. However, the Tigers did survive a major test from Detroit Cass Tech in last week’s Semifinal, 29-28 in overtime, on Underwood’s two-point conversion run to win it, and after defeating Saline and Detroit Catholic Central along the way as well.

Belleville (14-0) was able to overcome any adversity that came its way.

Rogers led the Tigers through this playoff run after coach Jermain Crowell was suspended first by Belleville administration before the start of the postseason and later by the MHSAA through the 2024-25 academic year for violating the MHSAA’s undue influence rules.

“Just no excuses, no excuses,” said Rogers, who shifted into the active head-coaching role after previously serving as defensive coordinator. “Things are going to happen, things might not go our way, but at the end of the day there’s still a job that’s got to be done.” 

Click for the full box score.

PHOTOS (Top) Belleville interim coach Dejuan Rogers raises the Division 1 championship trophy Saturday as Felix Shorter (71), Brayden Lane (24) and their teammates celebrate. (Middle) Tigers quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) sprints downfield as Caledonia’s Maddox Greenfield (21) works to keep stride. (Below) Belleville’s Colbey Reed (23) picks an opening. (Click for more from Hockey Weekly Action Photos.)