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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Davison defenders wrap up a Warren De La Salle Collegiate ball carrier during the Cardinals' Week 1 victory.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 1 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

August 28, 2023

Every football season starts as a fast-tracked learning experience – we know some things from the previous year, but we’re watching to learn quickly with only nine weeks to figure out as much as we can before the highest achievers from the regular season move on to play for more.

MI Student AidAnd of course, opening weekend is always memorable – but this one had a few more unexpected wrinkles with a number of games moved a day or two later because of a heat wave across the Lower Peninsula, and several more stretched over two days as severe storms moved across the state.

When all was said and done, 296 varsity games were played. And although it’s impossible to list all of the significant moments – special shoutout to Pontiac for its first win on the field since 2018, and we see you too Livonia Franklin, Warren Michigan Collegiate, Millington and Pickford after solid wins –  below we return with our weekly report highlighting some of the most intriguing results from all over Michigan.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Davison 31, Warren De La Salle Collegiate 26 The marquee matchup at the Vehicle City Gridiron Classic saw two-time reigning Division 2 champion De La Salle carry a 14-0 third-quarter lead from Thursday to Friday at Kettering University, but Davison’s offense found its stride overnight. The loss was only the second for the Pilots over their last 28 games. Click for more from the Flint Journal and see below for highlights from WJRT-ABC12.

Watch list Goodrich 14, Frankenmuth 8 This Battle at the Big House matchup was a rematch of last season’s 27-2 Frankenmuth win as both teams went on to reach Finals at Ford Field. This time Goodrich scored the game-winner on a Chase Burnett run with 18 seconds to play at U-M.

On the move Midland 20, Cadillac 17 (OT) The Chemics added to last season’s 27-21 season-opening win over the Vikings by holding Cadillac to a field goal to start overtime and then clinching the victory on a touchdown pass from Isaiah Henderson to Zach Buschlen. Ubly 50, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 13 The Bearcats were Division 8 runners-up last season and started this one in a big way against another 2022 Division 8 semifinalist in Everest. Saginaw Heritage 42, Mount Pleasant 7 The Hawks are generating plenty of buzz after making a major move last fall, and breaking a nine-game losing streak against the Oilers will add to that.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Southfield Arts & Technology 29, Detroit Cass Tech 27 History repeated itself at the Xenith Kickoff Classic at Wayne State, but with nearly half the scoring as Southfield also defeated Cass Tech in the opener a year ago 56-54. Quarterback Isiah Marshall scored the go-ahead touchdown this time on a run with just under a minute to play. But don’t forget, the Technicians went on to win last year’s rematch 25-14 in a District Final, and these two could see each other again later this fall as well. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press and see highlights below from State Champs! Sports Network.

Watch list Belleville 35, River Rouge 28 The Tigers ran their winning streak to 26, but not without a major scare at Wayne State as the Tigers went ahead for good with just seven seconds to play.

On the move Roseville 41, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 0 The Panthers have been building up to something big the last two seasons, and this absolutely ranks among the most notable wins in program history. Northville 24, Clarkston 10 The Mustangs bounced back big from 3-6 in 2021 to 8-3 last season, and that surge looks to continue under new coach Brent Luplow after this Big House win over a 2022 Division 1 semifinalist. West Bloomfield 22, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 21 The Lakers pulled within a point during the closing seconds at WSU, then went for the win and converted a two-point conversion to start 1-0.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER DeWitt 27, Haslett 17 The Panthers trailed 10-7 when Thursday’s action ended due to thunderstorms, and Haslett scored the first touchdown after play resumed Friday. But DeWitt pulled away with 20 unanswered points as junior quarterback Elliott Larner ran for 227 yards and all four of the team’s scores. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Laingsburg 14, Durand 6 After just missing the playoffs with a 6-3 record last season, Laingsburg is grinding again after having also handed Durand its only regular-season defeat of 2022.

On the move New Lothrop 34, Muskegon Catholic Central 20 Division 8 is loaded with familiar contenders, and these two stand to be among them in eight weeks when we move into the playoffs. Grand Ledge 37, Holland West Ottawa 30 A late end zone interception followed by the heroics of freshman Anthony Baker and company gave the Comets a memorable opening win. Portland 33, Ovid-Elsie 6 These two finished a combined 18-5 a year ago after Portland won their opening matchup by nearly the same score.

Coopersville started 1-0 with a 49-6 win over Otsego.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Traverse City St. Francis 41, Charlevoix 40 (OT) This is a good sign not only for reigning Division 7 runner-up St. Francis’ resilience but also for Charlevoix’s potential this fall. The Gladiators survived multiple scares late in regulation and then stopped the Rayders on an overtime two-point conversion try to hold on. St. Francis is mustering after graduating many of the standouts from last year’s 13-1 team, while Charlevoix is hoping to build on three straight eight-win seasons. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Kingsley 46, Reed City 12 Reed City has lost only three times during the regular season since the start of 2020, and the Stags made this one happen on the Coyotes’ home turf as well.

On the move Alpena 34, Flint Powers Catholic 33 The Wildcats won only one game total last season – losing 34-7 to the Chargers along the way – and hadn’t started 1-0 since 2018. Boyne City 12, Standish-Sterling 7 After suffering its only 2022 loss in a Division 6 District Final, Boyne City is off on the right foot after downing another D6 playoff team from last season. Gaylord 13, Traverse City West 7 The Blue Devils followed up their first winning season last year since 2018 with their first victory over the Titans since 2005.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Saline 42, Brighton 3 CJ Carr is going to be one of the most followed stars in Michigan this fall, and it's fair to expect the entire Saline offense should benefit from the attention he draws. The Hornets ran for five touchdowns in a big opening win as Carr ran for one and threw for another score and directed the show throughout against a Bulldogs defense that gave up only 16 points per game last season. Click for more from the Ann Arbor News.

Watch list Parma Western 21, Dearborn Divine Child 7 The Panthers entered this fall with a streak of six straight winning seasons, but this still no doubt opened a few more intrigued eyes as Divine Child was 9-3 a year ago. Western kept the Falcons off the scoreboard until the fourth quarter.

On the move Napoleon 29, Onsted 28 The Pirates survived quite a few close games in reaching the Division 7 Semifinals last season and showed they can do so again, but Onsted also should be excited after winning just one game a year ago. Tecumseh 40, Jackson Northwest 21 Tecumseh ran its regular-season winning streak to 11 after downing a Mounties team coming off its best finish last fall since 2013. Manchester 42, Whitmore Lake 6 The Flying Dutchmen earned a second-straight opening night win over Whitmore Lake after both went on to six victories last season.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Portage Central 17, East Lansing 7 The Mustangs couldn’t have hoped for a better start after last season’s 4-5 finish, and this actually carried on their two-game winning streak to close 2022. The Trojans are coming off a Division 2 District title and defeated Portage Central 21-15 in last year’s opener and in 2021 as well. See below for highlights from FOX17.

Watch list Niles 55, St. Joseph 0 These two hadn’t faced off since Niles left the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference after the 2019 season, and before that the Vikings hadn’t defeated the reigning SMAC champion Bears since 2014.

On the move Battle Creek Harper Creek 33, Battle Creek Lakeview 32 Both are looking for better after matching 3-6 records a year ago, and Harper Creek took the first step by breaking a three-game losing streak against its rival. Kalamazoo United 28, Berrien Springs 27 The Titans scored last and got the conversion to win this matchup of 2022 playoff teams. White Pigeon 36, Reading 14 This also was a matchup of playoff teams from a year ago, and an avenging for White Pigeon after Reading won last year’s opener 33-14.

Ishpeming's Caden Luoma (20) is among Hematites pursuing Negaunee's Kai Lacar.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Escanaba 40, Calumet 13 The last two seasons have been tough for Escanaba with a combined three wins, but this could be a great sign as the program moves into the Big North Conference this fall with its league opener this week. Calumet has a nine-season playoff streak – and also lost last year’s opener to a bigger school by a similar score but came back to finish 6-4 and reach the postseason again. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

Watch list Gladstone 36, Marquette 7 These two are going separate ways for league play after spending most of the last several seasons together in a Great Northern Conference. Gladstone has run its winning streak over Marquette to two as it begins Western Peninsula Athletic Conference play this week.

On the move Hancock 56, L’Anse 14 The Bulldogs ended a two-year losing streak against the Purple Hornets, and after falling in last year’s opener to them by 33. Iron Mountain 56, Houghton 6 The Mountaineers returned after last season’s Division 8 Semifinal run with their highest scoring output since 2020. Negaunee 32, Ishpeming 16 The Miners’ only loss last season came at Ford Field, and the reigning Division 6 runner-up opened this fall by running its winning streak over the Hematites to four.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Rockford 27, Muskegon 7 The first meeting between these two was one of the most highly-anticipated openers in the state, and the Rams have to be energized after performing so well on the road against the reigning Division 3 runner-up. Rockford’s defense was especially impressive, mostly stopping a Big Reds offense with multiple playmakers back after averaging 39 points per game a year ago. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Grand Rapids West Catholic 56, Edwardsburg 12 An eight-point margin separated these two last season, but the reigning Division 6 champion Falcons expanded that substantially and especially impressed defensively against what might be one of its toughest challenges of the regular season.

On the move North Muskegon 17, Pewamo-Westphalia 14 The Norsemen put together their winningest season last fall since 2006, and edging an annual Division 7 contender is a great way to start the season and get ready for this week’s matchup with rival Muskegon Catholic Central. Whitehall 34, Hudsonville Unity Christian 28 Whitehall is coming off its winningest season and opens with a loaded nonleague schedule over the first three weeks – but started it well by holding off the Crusaders for the second-straight fall, although this time by a much closer margin. Caledonia 35, Romeo 28 Last season’s Division 1 runner-up Caledonia made a trip to the Big House and got a combined four touchdowns from Brody Betser and Maddox Greenfield to match the three passing and one rushing by Romeo’s Kaden Burroughs.

Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart opened with a 48-30 win over Blanchard Montabella.

8-Player

HEADLINER Climax-Scotts 26, Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 14 The Panthers have upped their win total each of the last two seasons and could be on their way to doing so again if this was an indication. NorthPointe was too large to qualify for the playoffs in 2022 but finished the regular season undefeated. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.

Watch list Rudyard 47, Munising 6 The Bulldogs not only avenged last season’s 34-7 loss to Munising, but did so against a team that didn’t lose last fall until it fell just two points short in a Division 1 Semifinal.

On the move St. Ignace 48, Suttons Bay 6 The Saints moved to 8-player this fall after rebounding to 7-3 in 11-player last season, and they started this next chapter off well against a frequent Division 1 contender. Martin 62, Colon 6 These two were a combined 21-3 last season, and reigning Division 1 champion Martin looks like it may have another group of playmakers to pick up where last year’s left off. Morrice 36, Breckenridge 12 Both are returning playoff teams from a year ago; they’re in separate divisions of the new Mid-State Activities Conference 8-player league after playing together in the Central Michigan 8-Man Football Conference last fall.

Second Half’s weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and X (Twitter) @mistudentaid.

PHOTOS (Top) Davison defenders wrap up a Warren De La Salle Collegiate ball carrier during the Cardinals' Week 1 victory. (2) Coopersville started 1-0 with a 49-6 win over Otsego. (3) Ishpeming's Caden Luoma (20) is among Hematites pursuing Negaunee's Kai Lacar during the Miners' victory. (4) Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart opened with a 48-30 win over Blanchard Montabella. (Photos by Terry Lyons [top], Gary Shook [2], Cara Kamps [3] and High School Sports Scene [4].)