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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Marquette's Tucker Welch (4) finds a big hole and scores Marquette's first touchdown of its win over Alpena.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 2 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 4, 2023

Every season is a story, and Week 2 gave us plenty to consider as this one continues to unfold.

MI Student AidWe had pretty high expectations for this Labor Day weekend, which featured power-packed matchups from both local and statewide points of view – and we weren’t disappointed.

But there were several intriguing twists and turns as well – including numerous teams that came back impressively from opening-day losses – and we dive into many of those results below.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Chesaning 27, New Lothrop 22 These two began playing each other regularly with the creation of the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference in 2018, and four-time league champion New Lothrop (1-1) had won the first five meetings of the recent series by an average score of 51-8 – including 40-14 a year ago. But Chesaning (1-1) built a 27-6 lead by the middle of the third quarter this time on the way to rebounding bigtime from a Week 1 four-point loss to Bath. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

Watch list Goodrich 45, Linden 28 The Martians (2-0) followed up a Week 1 win over reigning Division 5 runner-up Frankenmuth with this win over another returning league champion in Linden (1-1).

On the move Ubly 42, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 0 The Bearcats (2-0) have now won their first two games by a combined score of 92-13 over teams that went a combined 19-6 last season. Montrose 22, Durand 14 Add this to the Chesaning win and the MMAC might be in for more change at the top, as the Rams moved to 2-0 by handing reigning champ Durand its second defeat. Yale 34, Armada 28 The same might be said in the Blue Water Area Conference as Yale (2-0) broke a four-game losing streak against reigning champion Armada (1-1), avenging last year’s 42-18 defeat.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Warren De La Salle Collegiate 40, Muskegon 28 The reigning Division 2 champion Pilots (1-1) needed just a week to put the opening loss to Davison solidly behind them as they crossed the state and picked up a major bounce-back win over last season’s Division 3 runner-up Big Reds (0-2). The teams traded leads for most of the first three quarters with De La Salle carrying a five-point lead into the fourth and adding one more score to pull away. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Watch list Roseville 33, Romeo 30 The Panthers (2-0) are making big headlines early, following last week’s shutout of Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice with this win over the Bulldogs (0-2) that avenged last season’s 30-6 loss.

On the move West Bloomfield 41, Birmingham Groves 19 The Lakers also are off to another notable 2-0 start after doubling up a Division 2 semifinalist from a year ago. Southfield Arts & Technology 20, Clarkston 17 The Warriors (2-0) have set their pace defeating a pair of Division 1 powers, this time breaking a four-game losing streak against the Wolves (0-2).  Redford Union 14, Dearborn Heights Crestwood 12 Last season this ended up eventually deciding the Western Wayne Athletic Conference title for the Chargers, although this matchup was much closer than their 41-6 victory a year ago.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Mason 42, DeWitt 23 The Bulldogs (2-0) affirmed themselves as the frontrunners for the Lansing area’s best team after jumping out to a 35-0 lead on the Panthers (1-1) in this matchup of 2022 Division 3 semifinalists. Fourth-year varsity senior AJ Martel was among standouts with 139 yards and two touchdowns rushing. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Lansing Sexton 48, Lansing Catholic 20 The J-Dubbs are off to their first 2-0 start since 2017, also their most recent winning season, and avenged a 35-0 loss to the Cougars (1-1) from a year ago.

On the move Haslett 41, Fenton 25 The Vikings bounced back from a Week 1 loss to DeWitt as Nakai Amachree scored six touchdowns. Ithaca 39, Standish-Sterling 26 The Yellowjackets (2-0) had lost the last two seasons to the Panthers (0-2), last season’s ending up Ithaca’s only defeat on the way to the Division 7 Regional Finals. Mount Pleasant 35, Midland 6 Add the Oilers (1-1) to the list of quick bounce-backers as they rebounded from a big Week 1 loss to down a Midland team that won 10 games last season and opened with a victory last week.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Gaylord 42, Kingsley 39 The Blue Devils are 2-0 for the second-straight season after holding off a late Kingsley comeback attempt. The Stags (1-1) scored twice over the final four minutes to again make this matchup a one-score game after Gaylord won last year’s meeting by a point. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Cadillac 43, Escanaba 36 The Vikings (1-1) came back from a three-point season-opening loss to Midland to begin Big North Conference play with a key win over new league member Escanaba (1-1).

On the move Frankfort 28, Maple City Glen Lake 15 Just two weeks in, Frankfort finds itself 2-0 in the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy with a Week 8 matchup with East Jordan looking even more like one to circle. Boyne City 57, Elk Rapids 14 The Ramblers also are 2-0 after playing two 2022 playoff teams and with more tests ahead as the schedule doesn’t get any easier the rest of September. Mancelona 52, Tawas 20 The Ironmen (1-1) won one game last season and scored just 86 points over nine, but they equaled that victory total while avenging last year’s 30-8 loss to Tawas (1-1).

Remus Chippewa Hills improved to 2-0 with a 43-13 win over Grant.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Carleton Airport 48, Riverview 27 The Jets (2-0) not only have defeated two league champions so far this fall – add this win to the 31-10 opener over Gibraltar Carlson – but they’ve set themselves up well starting Huron League play after missing out on a shared title a year ago when Riverview (1-1) won the matchup 18-13 and went on to make the Division 4 Semifinals. Click for more from the Monroe News.

Watch list Parma Western 20, Detroit Country Day 17 There’s been early talk that Western (2-0) is a team to watch more closely this fall, and this combined with the Week 1 win over Dearborn Divine Child definitely is justifying the buzz. Country Day (1-1) is coming off a run to the Division 5 Semifinals.

On the move Quincy 18, Reading 12 The Orioles (1-1) are seeking a first winning season since 2018, and this could be big as they hadn’t defeated Reading (0-2) since 2016 and lost last year’s meeting 42-0. Chelsea 27, Edwardsburg 14 The Bulldogs (1-1) evened their record this fall and avenged a 40-7 loss to the Eddies (0-2) from last as these two recent Division 4 champions continued a regular-season series. Saline 41, Dexter 25 The matchup that decided the Southeastern Conference Red outright title for Dexter (0-2) in Week 8 last year moved to the front of the league schedule this fall and still might end up having championship implications as Saline (2-0) is off to a strong start.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Lawton 38, Traverse City St. Francis 6 The Blue Devils’ Kal Motter was another of the statewide stars of the weekend with five touchdowns as Lawton handed reigning Division 7 runner-up St. Francis its first regular-season loss since October 2020. The Gladiators (1-1) had won last year’s meeting 42-7 and hadn’t been held to single-digit scoring also since 2020. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Battle Creek Harper Creek 21, Battle Creek Central 13 The Beavers are 2-0 for the first time since 2017 having now avenged both 2022 losses to neighbors Lakeview in Week 1 and Central on Friday. Harper Creek had lost to the Bearcats 34-0 a year ago.

On the move Richland Gull Lake 7, Vicksburg 6 The Blue Devils are 2-0 for the first time since 2007 and after winning three games total last season, when they fell 28-6 to playoff regular Vicksburg (0-2). Paw Paw 42, Berrien Springs 6 The Red Wolves (2-0) added to their impressive opening victory over Big Rapids with another over the annually playoff-qualifying Shamrocks (0-2). Kalamazoo Central 47, Sturgis 34 The Maroon Giants’ opener ended up cancelled due to weather, but they made their late start sweet with this first win since Week 7 of 2021 – and against a 2022 playoff qualifier in the Trojans (1-1).

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Gladstone 42, Negaunee 14 Gladstone (2-0) is coming off its best season in more than a decade, but it still included losses to Negaunee (1-1) during the regular season and Regional Finals. This was a first step toward avenging all of that, and with some new significance – Gladstone joined reigning champion (and Division 6 runner-up) Negaunee in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper this season. Click for more from RRN Sports.

Watch list Iron Mountain 40, Bark River-Harris 0 The Mountaineers (2-0) are another team running at full steam with a pair of wins over 2022 playoff teams, but with an interesting September coming up as they moved into the WPAC Iron this fall after regularly contending in the Copper over the last five seasons.

On the move Sault Ste. Marie 26, Cheboygan 0 For the fifth season in a row, the Blue Devils have started 2-0 – and for the second time in three seasons, they’ve opened with two shutouts. Calumet 42, Ishpeming Westwood 22 The Copper Kings picked up nice momentum following an opening loss to Escanaba by getting to 1-0 in the WPAC Copper with Negaunee up next. Kingsford 34, Houghton 0 The Flivvers also are unscored upon after two games, with Gladstone a major test next.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Rockford 31, Muskegon Mona Shores 8 The Rams (2-0) followed up an impressive opening win over Muskegon High with another stunning performance, holding Mona Shores (1-1) scoreless until the final minutes of the fourth quarter. This was just a four-point game a year ago, but Rockford now heads into Ottawa-Kent Conference Red play with a combined 58-15 margin over its first two. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list East Grand Rapids 23, Grand Rapids South Christian 21 The Pioneers (2-0) are coming off two straight sub-.500 seasons, but that rarity could be moving into distant memory as they followed up a shutout of Cedar Springs by downing the reigning Division 4 champion Sailors (1-1) with the game-winner on the final play.

On the move Grand Rapids Catholic Central 38, River Rouge 6 Both are being talked about already in the championship mix, making this victory even more notable as GRCC moved to 1-1 and Rouge to 0-2. North Muskegon 41, Muskegon Catholic Central 21 The Norsemen (2-0) are one of the stories of the first two weeks, following an opening win over Pewamo-Westphalia by avenging last year’s only regular-season loss in sending the Crusaders to 0-2. Hudsonville Unity Christian 33, Muskegon Oakridge 21 These Crusaders (1-1) opened with a pair of contenders from the West Michigan Conference Lakes and followed Week 1 loss to Whitehall with an impressive victory over a 10-win team from a year ago.

8-Player

HEADLINER Newberry 16, Munising 6 Newberry’s only losses of the 2022 season were to Munising in Week 2 and again in a Division 1 Regional Final. But along with avenging those, this victory should provide plenty of momentum as Newberry heads into this week’s matchup with Rudyard, the only other opponent to come within single digits last season.

Watch list St. Ignace 46, Pellston 6 The Saints (2-0) appear to be adjusting to 8-player quickly as they increased their margin over their first two victories to a combined 96-12.

On the move Posen 56, Rogers City 14 The Vikings (2-0) handed the Hurons just their second regular-season defeat over the last three and now have reached 50 points in both games this fall. Indian River Inland Lakes 54, Lake Linden-Hubbell 46 The Bulldogs (2-0) got a late start as well after their Week 1 game was forfeited, but they started it memorably by edging a Lakes team coming off its second-straight seven-win season. Mendon 58, Colon 30 After winning last year’s Division 2 Regional Final meeting with the Magi by only two points, Mendon broke free with Jack McCaw and Owen Gorham both going over 100 yards rushing and combining for five touchdowns.

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PHOTOS (Top) Marquette's Tucker Welch (4) finds a big hole and scores Marquette's first touchdown of its 49-0 win over Alpena. (Middle) Remus Chippewa Hills improved to 2-0 with a 43-13 win over Grant. (Top photo by Cara Kamps; middle photo by High School Sports Scene.)