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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

St. Clair Shores Lakeview pulled away from Roseville 37-33.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 3 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 11, 2023

This weekend’s statewide football schedule didn’t include many of the matchups we circle every fall knowing they’ll be difference-makers by the time we get to the end of October.

MI Student Aid

Instead, Week 3 seemed to provide an opportunity to expect the unexpected – and indeed it was full of surprises.

We won’t call anything an upset this early in the season, but there were results we didn’t anticipate. We also watched losing streaks of 38 and 17 games come to an end, another contender for top team in the Upper Peninsula rise and a resurgent power next door to Grand Rapids continue its return to the elite. And those were just the start.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Grand Blanc 53, Saginaw Heritage 33 The Hawks (2-1) rightfully are generating some buzz coming off their much-improved 2022 and solid start this fall. But Grand Blanc, after falling 41-13 to Grandville in its opener, clearly has found its footing going over 50 points both of the last two weeks with quarterback Jake Morrow running for three touchdowns and throwing for three more this time. Click for more from WJRT.

Watch list Croswell-Lexington 53, Armada 28 After tying for third in the Blue Water Area Conference last season, Croswell-Lexington (3-0) is among those setting the early pace after this win over last year’s co-champion Tigers (1-2). The Pioneer trailed 14-0 during the second quarter and 14-13 at halftime.

On the move Goodrich 34, Lake Fenton 15 The Martians (3-0) made it two straight over the Blue Devils (2-1) as Flint Metro League play got underway. Freeland 51, Essexville Garber 14 The Falcons are off to their fourth 3-0 start over the last five seasons and have won all four matchups with the Dukes (2-1) since they’ve been in the same Tri-Valley Conference division. Pinconning 23, Harrison 14 The Spartans (1-2) broke a 17-game losing streak going back to Week 3 of 2021, also avenging a 48-13 defeat last season to the Hornets (1-2).

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Clarkston 28, Rochester Adams 7 The Wolves may have put to rest notions they might be heading for a down season after an 0-2 start. After sharing the Oakland Activities Association Red championship with Adams and West Bloomfield last season – and also defeating the Highlanders by three in a Division 1 Regional Final – Clarkston joined West Bloomfield and Lake Orion this time among winners in OAA openers. The Wolves also should continue to benefit in playoff points from those first two losses, as both opponents remain undefeated. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Watch list St. Clair Shores Lakeview 37, Roseville 33 Roseville (2-1) and its impressive start had been among the top stories of the first few weeks, and may continue to be moving forward as well. But Lakeview (2-1) is one of the top stories of this week after avenging last year’s 53-10 loss to the Panthers to open the Macomb Area Conference White schedule.

On the move Flat Rock 33, Carleton Airport 21 A week ago Airport (2-1) looked like the Huron League favorite after defeating reigning champ Riverview, but it might be Flat Rock (3-0) with its meeting with Riverview coming up in Week 5. Dearborn Divine Child 26, Milford 23 The Falcons (2-1) should continue to benefit from a season-opening loss to still-undefeated Parma Western and will get another nice boost as Milford was ranked No. 4 in Division 2 heading into the weekend. Bryce Young tossed to Tyler Eby with 29 seconds to play for the game-winner. Warren Michigan Collegiate 26, Detroit Country Day 20 While finishing a combined 21-5 over the last two seasons, Michigan Collegiate also took a loss both years from Country Day – but moved to 3-0 this time while handing the Yellowjackets (1-2) their second one-score defeat of the fall.

Iron Mountain's Alex Jayne prepares to pull in a pass from quarterback Ian Marttila that he runs into the end zone.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Pewamo-Westphalia 26, Laingsburg 7 The Pirates (2-1) have rebounded nicely from a three-point opening loss to still-undefeated North Muskegon, as they’ve opened Central Michigan Athletic Conference play 2-0 and still given up only 24 points total over three games. This win ran P-W’s streak against the Wolfpack (2-1) to 14 straight. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Charlotte 35, Lansing Catholic 33 The Orioles (3-0) are coming off their best season since 2004, and the offense that averaged 33 points per game in getting them to 9-2 last fall is churning at 42 points per game through the first three.  

On the move New Lothrop 26, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 15 While a Week 2 loss to league opponent Chesaning stung, the Hornets do have an impressive pair of wins over teams in their playoff division with Everest having made the Division 8 Semifinals last season. Grand Ledge 41, Holt 13 The Comets avenged a 14-6 loss to Holt from a year ago that eventually led to Grand Ledge and the Rams sharing the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue title. Beal City 48, McBain 7 The Aggies (3-0) are pursuing a potential fourth-straight Highland Conference title and put McBain (2-1) a game back with the other two co-leaders coming up over the next three weeks.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Ogemaw Heights 56, Traverse City St. Francis 17 The Falcons (2-1) have been rising in a hurry over the last 13 months, and they are halfway to a possible Northern Michigan Football League Legends title with one of the annually more difficult obstacles out of the way. The reigning-champ Gladiators (1-2) had won their three recent matchups all by at least 21 points, including 42-19 last season. Click for more from the Bay City Times.

Watch list Charlevoix 26, Boyne City 13 The Rayders (2-1) appear the team to chase in the NMFL Leaders after handing Boyne City (2-1) its lone loss to avenge last year’s 42-14 defeat – which eventually clinched the league title for the Ramblers as Charlevoix ended up second.

On the move Manistee 20, Muskegon Oakridge 15 Bring on the Mariners (3-0) as the latest entrant into the West Michigan Conference Lakes race after they avenged last season’s 46-19 loss to always-contending Oakridge (1-2). Frankfort 27, Benzie Central 20 The NMFL Legacy-leading Panthers (3-0) picked up a nice nonleague win with two conference contests up next, but also notable is Benzie is 1-2 but with two losses by seven points or fewer as the Huskies look to challenge in the Leaders as well. Cadillac 14, Sault Ste. Marie 7 The Vikings (2-1) are 2-0 in Big North Conference play after a second seven-point win over a new league member from the old Great Northern Conference. The 14 points were the first given up by the Blue Devils (2-1).

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Jackson 50, Tecumseh 49 (OT) The Vikings (2-1) returned a kickoff for a touchdown to tie the score with 1:29 left in regulation, and after Tecumseh took the lead first in overtime came back to score and convert a 2-point conversion to win this Southeastern Conference White opener over the reigning champion. These two have combined for 85, 115 and now 99 points over their last three meetings. Click for more from JTV.

On the move Dexter 44, Temperance Bedford 0 The Dreadnaughts (1-2) were replacing some major star power this fall and faced an opening three games against teams that won at least eight last season. They bounced back from two losses to shut out the Kicking Mules (1-2), who were 8-3 in 2022.

On the move Grass Lake 40, Jonesville 32 The Warriors are 3-0 for the first time since 2020 and already halfway to last season’s 10-game scoring output after reaching 40 for the second time in three games. Addison 58, Leslie 14 The Panthers (3-0) have reached 50 points all three games this season and this time put up a number against a Leslie defense that had given up a combined 20 points over its opening two wins. Adrian 38, Ypsilanti Lincoln 30 The Maples are 3-0 for the first time since 2010 and are on pace for their highest offensive output since that season.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Constantine 22, Lawton 10 Days after Lawton earned one of Week 2’s headlining victories over Traverse City St. Francis, Constantine bounced back from a Week 2 loss to make headlines as well. While the Falcons also had won last year’s meeting 47-21, the rematch was at Lawton – and the Blue Devils hadn’t lost at home since 2018. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Parchment 36, Galesburg-Augusta 14 Jalen Kampen ran for a touchdown and threw for three more as Parchment reached 3-0 for the first time since 2011 and avenged last season’s 40-0 loss to the Rams.

On the move Edwardsburg 28, Plainwell 0 After opening with two losses against tough nonleague teams, the Eddies (1-2) broke away against one of their most familiar rivals – and after winning last year’s matchup with the Trojans (1-2) only 25-21. Stevensville Lakeshore 33, Mattawan 26 The Lancers (2-1) have bounced back nicely from a tough opening loss to Zeeland West as they look to bounce back from last year’s 3-6 finish. Schoolcraft 33, Kalamazoo United 14 The Eagles head into this week’s rivalry game with Constantine at 3-0 for the second-straight season and this time coming off a big-time comeback as they entered the fourth quarter against the Titans (2-1) down 14-7.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Kingsford 35, Gladstone 12 Make that Kingsford as the possible top team in the Upper Peninsula this fall. A week after Gladstone moved to the front of the conversation with a win over Negaunee, the Flivvers avenged last season’s 34-20 loss to the Braves by putting up the most points Gladstone had given up since 2021. Kingsford gets Negaunee next with an opportunity to create a notable early lead in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Negaunee 20, Calumet 13 The Miners (2-1) bounced back from that Gladstone loss with this solid win against another regular at the top of the Copper standings.

On the move Iron Mountain 40, Ishpeming 6 As noted in previous weeks, the Mountaineers will be rivaling whichever Copper team emerges in that argument over the UP’s best, and they’ve outscored their first three opponents now by a combined 136-12. Houghton 28, Hancock 14 These two will meet again in Week 9, and the Gremlins now will bring a two-game winning streak into the neighborly rematch. West Iron County 22, L’Anse 0 The Wykons had managed to play only two games both of the last two seasons, but they’ve played all three this fall, with this their first win on the field since the 2020 regular-season finale.

West Michigan

HEADLINER East Grand Rapids 42, Lowell 14 The Pioneers (3-0) will have to keep proving it in an Ottawa-Kent Conference White that includes also-undefeated Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central, Northview and Byron Center among six teams total at 2-1 or better. But one more win will tie EGR’s best showing since 2020, and their work so far definitely ranks with their best since reaching the Division 3 Regional Finals that fall. Lowell (2-1) also should continue to play a major role as this league race unfolds. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Grand Rapids West Catholic 17, Coopersville 14 The Falcons (3-0) passed this major test to start O-K Blue play and with Hudsonville Unity Christian and Spring Lake coming up. Coopersville is 2-1 and sees those two also over the next two weeks.

On the move Allegan 21, Kalamazoo Loy Norrix 14 The Tigers (3-0) have won no more than three games since 2011, and that was last fall – but they’ve equaled that total already this season. Hudsonville 17, East Kentwood 14 The Eagles (3-0) also have equaled their win total from a year ago and have the potential for much more coming off a second-straight victory over a 2022 playoff qualifier. Spring Lake 34, Hudsonville Unity Christian 28 The Lakers (3-0) are in the same conversation after last season’s 3-6 finish, and they’ve won all three of their games by scores of 34-28 – and all against teams that made the playoffs last fall.

8-Player

HEADLINER Bridgman 14, Martin 12 This has the looks of a rivalry in the making. After three Martin wins from 2018-20, the Bees have won the last two seasons – last year by a point and now this time by two to take a key first step in the Southwest Michigan 8-Man Football League White. This was the league opener for both; Bridgman is 3-0 overall and Martin fell to 2-1.

Watch list Brown City 38, Kingston 20 The Green Devils (3-0) ended Kingston’s regular-season winning streak at 12 in what likely will be a key matchup when the North Central Thumb League Stars race eventually shakes out.

On the move Caseville 38, Kinde North Huron 12 The Eagles (1-2) ended a 38-game losing streak dating to 2018, while North Huron fell to 0-3 this fall. Akron-Fairgrove 36, Peck 28 The Vikings (2-1) downed the Pirates (1-2) for the first time since 1993 after a stretch of 17 defeats. Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 21, Portland St. Patrick 20 Sacred Heart closed last season with a win over the Shamrocks, and at 3-0 this fall the Irish are one win away from equaling their 2022 total.

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PHOTOS (Top) St. Clair Shores Lakeview's Keonte Woolf (6) pulls away from a Roseville defender Friday. (Middle) Iron Mountain's Alex Jayne prepares to pull in a pass from quarterback Ian Marttila that he'll run into the end zone. (Top photo Chris Mudd/National Photo Scout. Middle photo by Cara Kamps.)