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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Grand Rapids Catholic Central breaks away for a 49-14 win over Ada Forest Hills Eastern.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 7 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 9, 2023

Fall showed up in a roar for Week 7, drenching fields almost everywhere as 300 games played on.

MI Student AidBut the rain couldn’t put a damper on several league title celebrations all over the state.

Of 88 varsity football conferences in Michigan, 60 have at least one guaranteed champion with two more weeks of regular-season games to play – and those historic victories make up most of the highlights below.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Frankenmuth 38, Freeland 13 Frankenmuth (6-1) secured a share of a 12th-consecutive league championship, clinching in the Tri-Valley Conference Red in this meeting of co-leaders heading into the evening. The Eagles have won 59 straight league games dating to 2014, and all five against the Falcons (6-1) since they began playing in the same division. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

Watch list Cass City 26, Elton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 12 With the Greater Thumb Conference set to merge with the North Central Thumb League next school year, Cass City (6-1) earned the final championship in the GTC West as Laker (4-3) also was tied for first entering the evening. (Ubly defeated Sandusky 39-8 to finish a perfect run through the GTC East.)

On the move Chesaning 29, Durand 12 Chesaning (6-1) clinched a share of the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference title, defeating the 2022 champ and with seventh-place Otisville-LakeVille left on the league schedule. Ithaca 26, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 7 The Yellowjackets (7-0) also clinched the outright championship in the TVC White by claiming this winner-takes-all meeting with MLS (5-2). Fenton 27, Flushing 8 Fenton (6-1) finished an outright championship in the Flint Metro League Stripes, its fifth-straight league title and first outright since 2020.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Lake Orion 42, Clarkston 21 With its first win over Clarkston since 2019, Lake Orion clinched its first league title since those two teams shared the Oakland Activities Association Red championship in 2011. They entered this league finale tied for first, so the Dragons’ also won this time outright and improved to 7-0 while holding down the No. 3 spot in Division 1 playoff-points average. Clarkston is 4-3 but No. 15 on the list in part because of its difficult schedule playing in one of the state’s most competitive leagues. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Watch list Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 45, Romeo 12; Utica Eisenhower 31, Macomb Dakota 0 There’s no way to split these up; Chippewa Valley (5-2) and Eisenhower (6-1) clinched a shared Macomb Area Conference Red championship by winning on a night when all four contenders entered tied for first place.

On the move Walled Lake Western 28, Milford 20 Western (7-0) claimed a share of a second-straight Lakes Valley Conference title, with Milford (5-2) and Waterford Mott one game behind and the Warriors needing to defeat seventh-place Walled Lake Central in two weeks to clinch it outright. Grosse Pointe South 27, St. Clair Shores Lakeview 0 Another winner-take-all in the MAC White went to GPS (6-1), which has won all 10 of its games in this division since making the switch a year ago and handed Lakeview (5-2) its first shutout since 2021. Birmingham Seaholm 20, Auburn Hills Avondale 0 Seaholm (6-1) owns a share of the OAA Blue title and dealt this first loss to Avondale (6-1), which has clinched a share in the OAA Gold. Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 56, Gladwin 21 This was one of few meetings left of undefeated teams this fall, and Notre Dame Prep (6-0) continued its surge by posting 56 points for the third time this season and against a defense that had given up only 90 total during Gladwin’s 6-0 start.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Hastings 20, Parma Western 19 There are still two weeks of Interstate 8 Athletic Conference games to play, but Hastings (5-2) is a major step closer to a fourth-straight championship. The Saxons stopped Western (6-1) on a late two-point try to win and moved into first place alone with a chance to clinch this week against Jackson Northwest. See below for more from FOX 17.

Watch list Perry 14, Stockbridge 13 Perry is drawing close to making history. The Ramblers (5-2) are seeking their first playoff berth (not counting 2020, when almost all teams qualified because of COVID-related adjustments) and are tied for No. 15 in Division 7 playoff-point average with a matchup against Division 5 Lake Odessa Lakewood this week.  

On the move Fowler 54, Frankfort 0 Fowler (6-1) sits No. 10 in Division 8 playoff-points average after handing Frankfort (6-1) its first defeat. Portland 35, Charlotte 8 Portland (7-0) will play Lansing Sexton this week for the Capital Area Activities Conference White title after turning back this challenge from the third-place Orioles (5-2). Williamston 20, Haslett 7 Williamston (5-2) sits No. 7 in Division 5 playoff-points average with its only losses to Division 3 teams and this win over the Vikings (4-3) among five over opponents from Divisions 3 or 4.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Ogemaw Heights 35, Kingsley 12 For the first time since 2009, Ogemaw Heights (6-1) is a league champion after claiming a winner-takes-all matchup for the Northern Michigan Football League Legends title. Kingsley (5-2) had averaged 50 points per game entering the weekend, but the Falcons’ defense continued a run of success that’s seen them allow only 38 points total over the last five games. Click for more from MI Sports Now.

Watch list Benzie Central 46, Oscoda 14 Benzie remains on the rise, and by moving to 4-3 equaled its win total from a year ago – when it qualified for the playoffs at 3-6 – while holding nicely at No. 21 in Division 7 playoff-points average. Oscoda fell to 3-4 but has some opportunities to climb over the final two regular-season games.

On the move Grayling 46, Kalkaska 6 Grayling (4-3) kept its playoff hopes alive and sits No. 24 on the Division 6 playoff-points list after sending Kalkaska to 3-4 and No. 42. Maple City Glen Lake 47, Johannesburg-Lewiston 8 The Lakers (4-3) added to their playoff candidacy and sit No. 22 in Division 8 playoff-points average while Johannesburg-Lewiston (2-4) is No. 45. Cadillac 28, Richland Gull Lake 7 Cadillac (4-3) bounced back from two straight losses to get a needed boost up to No. 29 on the Division 3 playoff-points list, while Gull Lake (4-3) sits just outside the field at No. 33.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Napoleon 44, Michigan Center 34 Despite receiving one of its toughest challenges this fall – and trailing at halftime – Napoleon (7-0) emerged with a share of the Cascades Conference East championship and an opportunity to clinch it outright this week against sixth-place East Jackson. The Pirates have won 20 of their last 21 games and scored the most points Michigan Center (5-2) had allowed since Week 1 of 2022. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

Watch list Chelsea 21, Jackson 14 Chelsea (6-1) withstood its closest Southeastern Conference East matchup to finish an outright title run with Jackson (4-3) pushing for a shared championship.

On the move Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 27, Flat Rock 18 St. Mary (3-4) was able to jump from No. 22 to No. 9 in Division 7 playoff-point average with this win, and also juggled the Huron League title race a bit by dropping Flat Rock (5-2) out of a tie for first. Addison 42, Hanover-Horton 8 Addison (7-0) completed its Cascades Conference West schedule with an outright championship, the Panthers’ fourth league title in five seasons. Saline 31, Ypsilanti Lincoln 0 Saline (7-0) is another long-running league champion back on top, clinching a share in the SEC Red after missing out a year ago.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Portage Central 32, Portage Northern 22 Central took back the upper hand in this annual rivalry game after losing by three points a year ago, and also took over first place alone in the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference. Both teams are 6-1 overall, and Northern will be rooting hard for Kalamazoo Central this week and Stevensville Lakeshore next as the Huskies hope for some help to still claim a league title share. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Lawton 29, Schoolcraft 22 Lawton (6-1) set itself up to face undefeated Saugatuck this week for the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley title with Schoolcraft (5-2) hanging on to hope for a shared championship with Saugatuck on its schedule for Week 9.

On the move Constantine 27, Kalamazoo United 7 Constantine (6-1) also will play for a league title this week, against South Haven, in the SAC Lakeshore and with Kalamazoo United (4-3) hoping for similar maneuvering as Schoolcraft as it gets South Haven in Week 9. Parchment 32, Allegan 14 The Panthers (4-3) just missed the playoffs last season at 5-4 but kept their hopes sparked this fall by ending a three-game losing streak and jumping from No. 35 to 28 in the Division 6 playoff-points list while sending Allegan (4-3) down to a tie for No. 32 in Division 5. St. Joseph 35, Stevensville Lakeshore 0 St. Joseph (4-3) vaulted to No. 19 in Division 3 playoff-points average in breaking a two-game losing streak, and also knocked Lakeshore (5-2) out of a tie for first in the SMAC.

(Middle) Marquette's Jacob MacPhee (1) catches a pass from quarterback Jaxon Jurmu.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Negaunee 47, Menominee 20 The reigning champion in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper is back in the title hunt. After starting out a step behind with a loss to Gladstone in a Week 2 league opener, Negaunee (6-1) has made it all the way back and can clinch a share of the Copper championship this week against Houghton – while Menominee (6-1) and Kingsford also will play for a guaranteed share of the title. Click for more from Upper Michigan’s Source.

Watch list Marquette 21, Petoskey 20 Marquette (4-2) opened this season 1-2, then didn’t have a Week 4 game, but is 3-0 since with a chance at a share of the Big North Conference title (if Sault Ste. Marie defeats leader Gaylord in Week 9) and the No. 24 spot on the Division 3 playoff-points average list – while Petoskey (4-3) is holding on at No. 32.

On the move Gladstone 31, Houghton 8 Gladstone (5-2) is officially out of the Copper title hunt, but steady at No. 9 on the Division 6 playoff-points average list with opportunities to climb. Sault Ste. Marie 21, Alpena 6 After missing the playoffs last season at 6-3, Sault Ste. Marie (5-2) is sitting at No. 26 on the Division 4 playoff-points list and with two substantial chances to move up. Manistique 19, Lakeview 8 Manistique (4-3) moved up from No. 38 to 36 on the Division 7 playoff-points list but will work to reach the top 32 with two more playoff hopefuls on the schedule to finish the regular season.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Big Rapids 35, Howard City Tri County 6 After forcing a three-team shared championship in the Central State Activities Association last season, Big Rapids (6-1) will reign alone this fall thanks to this win that secured an outright title. The Cardinals won their six league games this season by an average of 24 ppg. Tri County is 6-1 and still can equal last season’s win total with one more. Click for more from the Big Rapids Pioneer.

Watch list Grandville 38, Caledonia 34 Grandville (6-1) will play Rockford this week for a share of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title after quarterback Cash Ruff put the Bulldogs on his shoulders (and legs) during the fourth quarter. He ran for the winning points during the final seconds as Grandville avenged two losses last season to the Fighting Scots (5-2).

On the move Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern 23, Lowell 20 In an O-K White filled with contenders, FHN (5-2) quietly has joined them and with this win guaranteed its best record since 2018 with a chance to break up the title race even more after taking the Red Arrows (5-2) out of a four-way tie for first. Muskegon 22, Zeeland West 16 The O-K Green is down to just one leader at the top as the Big Reds (5-2) have a game on West (6-1) and Muskegon Mona Shores and only sixth-place Grand Rapids Union and seventh-place Wyoming left on the schedule. Grand Rapids West Catholic 56, Allendale 6 West Catholic (7-0) claimed a share of the O-K Blue title with two games to play as Allendale (5-2), Coopersville and Spring Lake all are tied for second at 3-2 in league play.

8-Player

HEADLINER Climax-Scotts 58, Mendon 28 After two runner-up league finishes over the last four seasons, including last fall, Climax-Scotts is a champion with this win clinching a share of the Southern Central Athletic Association West title. Mendon (5-2) led by as many as 12 points into the final minute of the first half, but the Panthers (7-0) scored the final six touchdowns to come back and pull away. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Morrice 44, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 13 With one league game left for six of its seven teams, the Mid-State Activities Conference Red has three in first place – Morrice (5-2) creating the jam by handing Sacred Heart (6-1) this defeat. The Orioles, Irish and Portland St. Patrick all are 4-1 in the division, and all play teams in the bottom three of the standings this week.

On the move Alcona 42, Au Gres-Sims 12 Alcona (6-1) plays Rogers City this week for the North Star League Big Dipper title and should have plenty of momentum after handing a first loss to Little Dipper leader Au Gres (6-1). Marcellus 52, Grandville Calvin Christian 0 Marcellus (6-1) dominated the Southwest Michigan 8-Man Football League Red, opening with a 51-18 win over Lawrence, getting a forfeit from Bloomingdale and then defeating second-place Bangor and third-place Calvin Christian (4-3) by a combined 99-0 over the last two weeks. Carson City-Crystal 26, Blanchard Montabella 22 In its first year as part of an 8-player league, Carson City-Crystal (7-0) is a champion with this clinching a share of the MSAC Blue title as Montabella (4-3) moved into a tie for third.

Second Half’s weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and X (Twitter) @mistudentaid.

PHOTOS (Top) Grand Rapids Catholic Central breaks away for a 49-14 win over Ada Forest Hills Eastern. (Middle) Marquette's Jacob MacPhee (1) catches a pass from quarterback Jaxon Jurmu. (Top photo by Michigan Sports Photo. Middle photo by Cara Kamps.)