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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Detroit Cass Tech celebrates during its PSL Golf championship win at Ford Field.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 8 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 16, 2023

The sun is setting – and lately, a ton of rain has been falling – on the 2023 football regular season. 

MI Student AidWeek 8 saw most of the rest of the remaining league championships decided, and tons of movement up and down the list of potential playoff qualifiers as 20 teams moved into (and 20 out of) the possible field of 288.

Several more teams moved up and down their respective division lists, nearly as important as projections of which teams will be going where and which will be hosting playoff games begin to fly with more frequency this week and we draw closer to Sunday's 6 p.m. "Selection Sunday Show" on Bally Sports Detroit Extra.

Below is our latest look at the most recent results that caused notable shifts in the landscape.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Davison 35, Grand Blanc 21 Davison clinched a share of the Saginaw Valley League Red championship, moved to 8-0 overall this season and jumped three spots back to No. 3 on the Division 1 playoff-points average list. That’s a strong haul from a third-straight win over the Cardinals’ biggest rival, but their regular-season work isn’t done yet. Grand Blanc (5-3) still could end up with a share of the Red title if Lapeer is able to catch Davison this week. Click for more from WJRT.

Watch list Ubly 42, Cass City 8 After reaching Ford Field two of the last three season, Ubly (8-0) appears locked in for another run. The Bearcats won this matchup of Greater Thumb Conference division champions to jump to a season-best No. 3 on the Division 8 playoff-points average list. Cass City (6-2) remains firmly in the middle of the Division 7 list.

On the move Harbor Beach 18, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 6 Its only loss to Ubly, Harbor Beach (7-1) further set itself up for a possible playoff rematch with this win over the Division 7 hopeful Lakers (4-4). Midland 41, Lapeer 24 Midland (5-3) has been a mainstay on the Division 2 playoff-points average list but firmed up its position with its best win this season, as Lapeer also is 5-3. Saginaw Swan Valley 14, Birch Run 10 A three-game winning streak has Swan Valley (5-3) up to No. 18 on the Division 5 playoff-points average list after sitting just outside the top 32 after Week 3. Birch Run (5-3) remains No. 4 on the same list.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Detroit Cass Tech 24, Detroit Martin Luther King 23 Cass Tech (6-2) finished a season sweep of its rival to complete a Detroit Public School League Blue championship. Five of the last six meetings between these PSL powers have been decided by seven points or fewer, and Corey Sadler Jr. was a difference maker in several ways as the Technicians firmed up their position in the Division 1 playoff field. King (4-4), meanwhile, moved up in Division 3 as well. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Watch list Gibraltar Carlson 20, Allen Park 18 Carlson (7-1) has guaranteed itself at least a share of the Downriver League championship for the third straight season and can claim it outright for the first time during this streak this week against Lincoln Park. In handing Allen Park (7-1) its only loss, the Marauders capitalized with a five-position boost to No. 2 on the Division 2 playoff-points average list.

On the move Detroit Denby 29, Detroit Central 28 Denby (8-0) played by far its closest game of an otherwise dominating run to earn the PSL Blue championship. Central (4-4), which also lost to Denby 38-24 in Week 4, is one of only two opponents to score on Denby this fall. Northville 28, Novi 14 The winner-take-all for the Kensington Lakes Activities Association East title went to Northville (8-0), which continued its ascension after finishing second in the league a year ago and 3-6 in 2021. Novi (6-2), similarly, has guaranteed its best finish since 2016. West Bloomfield 31, Southfield Arts & Technology 20 In handing the Warriors (7-1) their only loss, West Bloomfield was able to nearly switch spots with A&T on the Division 1 playoff-points average list – the Lakers moved from No. 11 to 7, and Southfield moved from No. 4 to 11.\

Mid-Michigan 

HEADLINER Mason 30, Walled Lake Western 7 Walled Lake Western was top-ranked and Mason tied with Zeeland West for No. 2 in last week’s Division 3 coaches poll, but Mason (8-0) didn’t allow a point after the first quarter while its offensive stars found their footing including senior running back AJ Martel a week after setting the school’s career rushing record. Walled Lake Western (7-1) remains No. 1 on the Division 3 playoff-points average list, with Mason No. 4 but with another chance to gain this week against Fenton. Click for more from WILX.

Watch list Corunna 57, Fenton 7 In commanding fashion, Corunna (8-0) won the Flint Metro League championship game and put itself in position to play for a first perfect regular season since 2002. Fenton (6-2), as noted above, will face another undefeated team in its regular-season finale in Mason.

On the move Portland 41, Lansing Sexton 0 In another dominating performance, Portland (8-0) won this winner-take-all for the Capital Area Activities Conference White championship, stopping Sexton (7-1) and an offense that was averaging 37 points per game. Mount Pleasant 42, Midland Dow 7 After a big Week 1 loss to Saginaw Heritage, Mount Pleasant may have faded from the championship focus a bit – but the Oilers are back in a big way, having clinched the SVL Blue title outright and sitting in the No. 3 spot on the Division 3 playoff-points average list for the second-straight week after putting Dow (4-4) back outside the field at No. 34 in Division 2. Hastings 51, Jackson Northwest 14 Despite a 1-2 start in nonleague play, Hastings (6-2) also has bounced back in a big way and with this win clinched the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference title while moving to No. 8 on the Division 4 playoff-points average list.

Davison defenders swarm during their win over Grand Blanc.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Gaylord 24, Jackson Lumen Christi 21 During a stunning season for Gaylord (8-0), and a weekend with plenty of stunners statewide, the Blue Devils made another headline by remaining undefeated while handing Lumen Christi (7-1) its only loss. The reigning Division 7 champion Titans had won 18 straight games going back to September 2022. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Watch list East Jordan 38, Frankfort 36 This was similarly massive among the small schools up north, as East Jordan (7-1) scored during the closing seconds to take a winner-take-all and its second Northern Michigan Football Conference Legacy title over the last three seasons. Frankfort (6-2) finished second for the third consecutive season.

On the move Benzie Central 28, Maple City Glen Lake 14 A third-straight win sent Benzie (5-3) up six spots on the Division 7 playoff-points average list to No. 15 and Glen Lake (4-4) down seven spots to No. 29 in Division 8. Petoskey 27, Sault Ste. Marie 7 With another tough opponent in Clare this week, there was some added urgency in this matchup for Petoskey – and the Northmen (5-3) jumped eight spots on the Division 3 playoff-points average list to No. 24 while Sault Ste. Marie (5-3) fell six spots in Division 4 to No. 32. Boyne City 28, Oscoda 0 Despite still falling one spot on the Division 6 list to No. 27, Boyne City (4-4) also connected on a must-win as it seeks to reach the playoffs for the 10th time in 12 seasons.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Dundee 22, Hudson 16 (OT) After losing to Hudson the last three years by 14, 28 and then 29 points last fall, respectively, Dundee took its opportunity to impact this week’s Lenawee County Athletic Association championship decider between Hudson and Clinton, with Hudson (7-1) now needing a win to share the title instead of winning it outright. More importantly, the Vikings (5-3) also jumped two spots into No. 32 on the Division 5 playoff-points average list. Click for more from the Monroe News. 

Watch list Ann Arbor Pioneer 40, Ann Arbor Huron 38 Pioneer, 5-3 this fall after going a combined 2-22 over the last three seasons, had lost three straight to Huron (4-4) including 57-0 a year ago. Thanks to this win, Pioneer also jumped five spots to No. 20 on the Division 1 playoff-points average list.

On the move Chelsea 17, Trenton 14 (OT) Myles Bieber made three field goals for Chelsea (7-1), including one to tie the score with 34 seconds left in regulation and then the game-winner in overtime after Trenton (4-4) threw an interception. Michigan Center 42, Manchester 27 After its league title chances all but ended with a Week 7 loss to Napoleon, Michigan Center (6-2) bounced back to secure second place and move to No. 17 on the Division 6 playoff-points average list while Manchester (6-2) is No. 12 in Division 7. Ottawa Lake Whiteford 45, Union City 7 Whiteford (8-0) won a matchup of league champions and maintained its top spot on the Division 8 playoff-points average list while Union City (6-2) fell to No. 15 on the Division 7 tracker.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Lawton 21, Saugatuck 0 By handing Schoolcraft and Saugatuck (7-1) their only league losses over the last two weeks, Lawton (7-1) secured the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley championship for the third straight season. Caleb Mallory had two of the Lawton scores, and the Blue Devils stopped a Saugatuck offense averaging 37.3 points per game. See below for more from WZZM.

Watch list Constantine 20, South Haven 0 Constantine (7-1) pushed its SAC Lakeshore winning streak to 20 and its championship streak to five straight with its second shutout in four league games. The Falcons earned a share and can clinch the title outright this week against Parchment, with South Haven (5-3) and Kalamazoo United a game back and hoping for an upset while they also face off.

On the move Berrien Springs 38, Benton Harbor 14 After finishing runner-up last season, Berrien Springs finished an outright championship in the Lakeland Conference and moved up four spots to No. 23 on the Division 5 playoff-points average list. Edwardsburg 34, Vicksburg 20 The Eddies bounced back from two straight losses to keep their playoff hopes alive as they attempt to extend their streak to 14 straight postseasons. After falling out of the top 32 on the Division 4 playoff-points average list in Week 7, the Eddies moved back to No. 30 while Vicksburg fell from No. 30 to 35. Portage Northern 38, Stevensville Lakeshore 17 Coming off a tough loss to rival Portage Central, Northern (7-1) climbed back up the Division 2 playoff-points average list to No. 9, while Lakeshore fell to No. 16 on the Division 3 tracker.

An Otsego rusher charges into the line during a rainy 47-6 win by Paw Paw.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Kingsford 41, Menominee 32 Trailing at halftime, Kingsford (7-1) turned to powerful back Elizin Rouse and followed his historic performance to a share of the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper title in the first season in the league for both teams after previously playing football in the Great Northern Conference. Kingsford is the No. 16 team on the Division 6 playoff-points average list, and Menominee (6-2) fell only to No. 7 in Division 7. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Bark River-Harris 56, Manistique 14 After falling back as far as No. 38 on the Division 8 playoff-points average list, Bark River-Harris (5-3) has won three straight and is back to No. 26, with Manistique (4-4) still on the bubble in Division 7 at No. 36.

On the move Negaunee 13, Houghton 6 Negaunee (7-1) also secured a share of the Copper title while holding off a potential spoiler in Houghton (2-6). Marquette 28, Cadillac 13 The bounce-back season continued as Marquette (5-2) secured at least second in the Big North Conference with a chance at a league title share if Sault Ste. Marie can catch Gaylord this week. Cadillac (4-4) remains in the postseason running in Division 3 at No. 30 on that playoff-points average list, while Marquette moved up to No. 20. Gladstone 28, Calumet 21 Gladstone (6-2) is back to No. 7 on the Division 6 playoff-points average list, while Calumet (3-5) sits No. 36.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Rockford 34, Grandville 13 Make that five straight Ottawa-Kent Conference Red championships for the Rams (8-0), who clinched a share and can finish an outright title this week against Hudsonville. Grandville (6-2) did give the Rams their closest league game so far, but quarterback Drake Irwin continued to shine with two rushing and two passing touchdowns for Rockford. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Grand Rapids Catholic Central 21, Grand Rapids South Christian 12 A year ago it was South Christian (6-2) winning this matchup and eventually the O-K Gold title, but this time GRCC (7-1) took it back and needs only to defeat winless Ottawa Hills this week to finish an outright championship run.

On the move Byron Center 9, East Grand Rapids 0 Six of eight teams in the O-K White remain .500 or better overall, but Byron Center (7-1) is tied at the top with Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central with one league game left for both and East Grand Rapids (6-2) now tied for third. Muskegon Mona Shore 14, Zeeland West 6 Both are left chasing Muskegon in the O-K Green after both falling to the Big Reds, but from a playoffs point of view this was huge as Mona Shores (6-2) moved up six spots to No. 13 on the Division 2 list and Zeeland West (6-2) fell back only three to No. 13 in Division 3. Montague 24, Manistee 22 Montague (4-4) got a big boost as it bounces back from a 2-4 start, as this win vaulted the Wildcats five spots on the Division 6 list for the second week in a row, this time to No. 16. Manistee fell back only three spots to No. 5 with a possible rematch ahead.

8-Player

HEADLINER Adrian Lenawee Christian 41, Pittsford 0 It’s been this kind of season for Lenawee Christian (8-0), which for the second time in three weeks handed the first loss to a highly-ranked opponent. Pittsford (7-1) had given up only 54 points total over its seven victories, but the Cougars got to 35-0 by halftime of this Southern Central Athletic Association East clincher. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Watch list Bay City All Saints 47, Akron-Fairgrove 6 The winner would claim the North Central Thumb League Stripes title outright, and All Saints did so – with the championship its first since sharing the Greater Thumb Conference West title in 2003. These two flip-flopped on the Division 2 playoff-points average list, with All Saints (7-1) moving to No. 8 and Akron-Fairgrove (6-2) at No. 13.

On the move Norway 32, Powers North Central 26 The Knights (6-2) clinched a share of the Great Lakes Eight Conference West title with this win over the reigning champion Jets (6-2). Pickford 60, Newberry 52 Tommy Storey made the record book multiple times in leading Pickford to this outright clincher in the GLEC East, as Newberry (6-2) fell to third. Alcona 66, Rogers City 0 Alcona (7-1) claimed the North Star League Big Dipper title outright after losing by 16 to finish second to Rogers City (4-4) a year ago.

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PHOTOS (Top) Detroit Cass Tech celebrates during its PSL Gold championship win at Ford Field. (Middle) Davison defenders swarm during their win over Grand Blanc. (Below) An Otsego rusher charges into the line during a rainy 47-6 win by Paw Paw. (Top photo by Olivia B. Photography, middle photo by Terry Lyons, below photo by Gary Shook.)