Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
1st & Goal: 2023 Week 9 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 18, 2023
Memories are guaranteed to be made this weekend.
Only 288 teams qualify for the MHSAA Football Playoffs. And while the great majority have secured spots in the field to be announced Sunday, there’s still opportunity for last-minute movement this weekend; in 2021, 15 teams joined the field during Week 9, and last season that total was 14.
That also brings us to some potential history being made.
Perry may be on the verge of making the playoffs for the first time. The Ramblers enter the weekend 5-3, playing Bath (also 5-3) and sitting No. 25 on the Division 7 playoff-points average list. Hart also is playing to secure a first playoff berth and sits 7-1 in Division 6, hosting Ravenna (3-5).
Detroit University Prep Science & Math and Jackson Northwest are seeking the same, but likely will need help. University Prep is 5-3 and No. 37 on the Division 3 playoff-points average list, while Northwest is 4-4 and No. 38. The top 32 qualify in each 11-player division, and the top 16 qualify in both divisions of 8-player.
By the end of Saturday night, the field will be known – follow all of the playoff-point average movement in real-time on the Playoff Point Summary page.
How those teams are assigned to Districts and Regionals, and who plays who, will be announced at 6 p.m. Sunday on Bally Sports Detroit Extra. Tune in via your cable provider or the BSD website. Pairings will then be posted to MHSAA.com at 7 p.m., with dates, times and locations for all games added Monday.
(All games below are Friday unless noted.)
Bay & Thumb
Frankenmuth (7-1) at Gladwin (7-1)
This rematch of last season’s Division 5 championship game – won by Gladwin 10-7 on a field goal with two seconds to play – seems a fitting way to roll into these playoffs. Both continued league title streaks this fall, Gladwin with its third-straight in the Jack Pine Conference and Frankenmuth clinching its 12th-in a row in the Tri-Valley Conference. Both have losses against MHSAA championship contenders – Gladwin 56-21 to undefeated Division 5 Pontiac Notre Dame Prep and Frankenmuth 14-8 in its opener to 2022 Division 4 runner-up Goodrich. Both are putting up more than 40 points a game this fall with several new contributors, and depending on how the lines are drawn they could see each other a second time; Frankenmuth is No. 8 in Division 5 playoff-point average, and Gladwin is No. 14.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ogemaw Heights (7-1) at Almont (8-0) - WATCH, Lapeer (5-3) at Davison (8-0), Port Huron (7-1) at Marysville (6-2), Croswell-Lexington (7-1) at Freeland (7-1) - WATCH.
Greater Detroit
Northville (8-0) at Belleville (8-0) - WATCH
The overall Kensington Lakes Activities Association championship is on the line, along with perfect regular seasons for both and Belleville’s 33-game winning streak. Five of eight teams in the KLAA East are .500 or better heading into this weekend, and Belleville outscored all of its conference opponents by a combined 345-18 over the last seven weeks. Northville, champion of the KLAA West, is the Tigers’ next challenger and another good one – the Mustangs are actually No. 2 in Division 1 playoff-point average, while Belleville is No. 6. Keep in mind, this again could be just the first round between these two over the next few weeks.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Birmingham Groves (6-2) at Birmingham Seaholm (7-1) - WATCH, Grosse Pointe North (6-2) at Grosse Pointe South (7-1), Detroit Denby (8-0) at Warren De La Salle Collegiate (6-2). SATURDAY Detroit Cass Tech (6-2) vs. Toledo Central Catholic (9-0) at Ford Field
Mid-Michigan
East Lansing (6-2) at Grand Ledge (6-2) - WATCH
The Capital Area Activities Conference Blue is one of few with title possibilities remaining, as East Lansing clinched a guaranteed share against Holt last week but Grand Ledge and DeWitt are both just one game back with this one (and DeWitt’s against Lansing Waverly) to play. East Lansing had won four straight over its longtime rival before the Comets prevailed 45-30 last season. After opening 0-2 against opponents that remain a combined 12-4, East Lansing has churned to 42 points per game over its last six games while giving up just 70 points total during that time. The Comets’ league loss came to DeWitt, 41-38 in Week 6, and they fell to Lapeer as well a week later before rebounding against Okemos to set up this title-share opportunity.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Goodrich (7-1) at Williamston (6-2), McBain (5-3) at Fowler (7-1) - WATCH, Harbor Beach (7-1) at Beal City (8-0) - WATCH, Berrien Springs (5-2) at Portland (8-0).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Traverse City Central (4-4) at Traverse City West (3-5) - WATCH
The annual Patriot Game between these neighbors at their shared Thirlby Field will no doubt have the same festive feel this weekend, but with different factors in play. Both are among three teams tied for second in the Saginaw Valley League Blue that’s already been clinched by Mount Pleasant, and instead both are battling for some level of playoff opportunity – Central is No. 29 in Division 2 playoff-point average, and West may only be able to play spoiler sitting at No. 41. Central last missed the playoffs in 2013, but has won this rivalry matchup four straight seasons although only 14-13 a year ago. West saw a similar run of postseason success end a year ago and has improved by a win this season – and adding one more no doubt would give the Titans something to build on for 2024.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Elk Rapids (4-4) at East Jordan (5-3) - WATCH, Grayling (5-3) at Lake City (6-2), Clare (6-2) at Petoskey (5-3) - WATCH. SATURDAY Muskegon Catholic Central (5-3) at Traverse City St. Francis (3-4) - WATCH.
Southeast & Border
Addison (8-0) at Napoleon (8-0)
It's tough to rank any game above Saline/Lake Orion below, but these two also are undefeated and meeting for the overall Cascades Conference championship in the first season after the league split into divisions. These teams have split their last six meetings – Napoleon winning 36-18 last year to finish off an outright Cascades title – and both soundly defeated their three mutual opponents on the way here. This will provide one last strong test heading into what surely will be tough playoff brackets for both. Napoleon is tied for No. 2 in Division 7 playoff-point average, but No. 1 Jackson Lumen Christi and No. 5 Clinton could be opponents soon. Addison is No. 7 in Division 8 playoff-point average with No. 1 Ottawa Lake Whiteford and No. 6 Hudson possibly down the road.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Hudson (7-1) at Clinton (7-1) - WATCH, Chelsea (7-1) at Dexter (6-2), Lake Orion (8-0) at Saline (8-0) - WATCH. SATURDAY Battle Creek Harper Creek (6-2) vs. Jackson Lumen Christi (7-1) at Ford Field.
Southwest Corridor
Paw Paw (8-0) at Niles (7-1) - WATCH
From a trophy perspective, this might be the most significant 11-player game in the state this weekend – a winner-take-all for the Wolverine Conference championship. Along the way, they’ve guaranteed an end to Edwardsburg’s league title reign at nine straight – including the last seven in the combined Wolverine after the league previously was split into divisions – and both contenders have left no doubt they are the elite in the league this fall. After opening with a 55-0 win over St. Joseph and then taking its lone loss to Stevensville Lakeshore, 15-14, Niles has outscored its other six Wolverine opponents by a combined 335-37, with three straight shutouts heading into this matchup. Paw Paw hasn’t had a game closer than three touchdowns all season and has outscored its other league opponents by a combined 227-53.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Union City (6-2) at Buchanan (5-3) - WATCH, Hastings (6-2) at Battle Creek Pennfield (4-4), South Haven (5-3) at Kalamazoo United (5-3), Stevensville Lakeshore (5-3) at Portage Central (7-1).
Upper Peninsula
Iron Mountain (8-0) at Negaunee (7-1), Thursday - WATCH
This matchup of Western Peninsula Athletic Conference powers kicks off Week 9 in a big way Thursday, as Iron Mountain dominated in winning the Iron championship and Negaunee came back from a Week 2 loss to claim a share in the Copper. Iron Mountain played in the Copper most recently, until this season, and the league matchups between these two were decided by three points twice and two points once – all Iron Mountain wins – before Negaunee claimed last year’s 19-14. The Miners this time are coming off a 13-6 win over Houghton – which the Mountaineers defeated 56-6 in the opener two months ago – and they’ve had no other common opponent. But what they do have in common are playing styles, as both have dominating defenses and potent run games.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Menominee (6-2) at Bark River-Harris (5-3) - WATCH, Gaylord (8-0) at Sault Ste. Marie (5-3) - WATCH, Saginaw Nouvel (3-5) at Manistique (4-4) - WATCH, Kingsford (7-1) at Marquette (5-2) - WATCH.
West Michigan
Hudsonville (5-3) at Rockford (8-0) - WATCH
The Ottawa-Kent Conference Red will be the last of the O-K divisions to fully crown its champion, as Rockford earned a share of the title last week with a 34-13 win over second-place Grandville but needs to down Hudsonville as well to clinch outright. That result over the Bulldogs was Rockford’s closest in league play this season and no opponent league or nonleague has gotten closer than 20 points. But Hudsonville can shake things up and showed the ability with its Week 2 win over East Lansing and narrow loss to Grandville in Week 5. Rockford has won the last eight meetings between this pair, but Hudsonville played the Rams to 42-31 a year ago despite finishing only 3-6. In fact, one more win would assure the Eagles their best record since at least 2019. Rockford sits first in Division 1 playoff-point average, guaranteeing three home playoff games if that position is maintained, while Hudsonville is slotting No. 24 and should benefit playing this game win or lose.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Coopersville (6-2) at Allendale (6-2), East Grand Rapids (6-2) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern (6-2) - WATCH, Montague (4-4) at Muskegon Oakridge (5-3) - WATCH, Schoolcraft (6-2) at Saugatuck (7-1) - WATCH.
8-Player
Indian River Inland Lakes (7-1) at Gaylord St. Mary (6-2), Saturday
This is also a winner-take-all as these two sit tied for first in the Ski Valley Conference. Inland Lakes has won the league title both seasons as part of it for 8-player football, including last year thanks to a 44-40 win over St. Mary on the way to the Snowbirds finishing second. All of that alone makes this big, but the St. Mary’s season also is on the line. Inland Lakes sits No. 8 in 8-player Division 1 playoff-point average, but St. Mary is No. 18, just outside the qualifying field after losing last week to Rudyard, which sits No. 16. Neither team has missed the playoffs since switching to the 8-player format, St. Mary in 2019 and Inland Lakes in 2020.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Posen (7-0) at Au Gres-Sims (7-1) - WATCH, Bay City All Saints (7-1) at Brown City (8-0) - WATCH, St. Ignace (7-1) at Pickford (8-0) - WATCH, Climax-Scotts (8-0) at Pittsford (7-1) - WATCH.
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PHOTO Ortonville Brandon and Goodrich face off Oct. 6 during a downpour. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)