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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Bath and Perry faced off under the lights and rain in Week 9, and both will continue as the playoffs begin this weekend.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 9 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 23, 2023

By now, you’ve likely moved on to prepping for this weekend’s start of the 2023 Football Playoffs. We don’t blame you – it’s impossible to not look forward at this time of year.

MI Student AidBut we like to say we tell the stories behind the scores – and the Week 9 regular-season scores below tell a lot of the story of how we got here and what’s set to begin.

(And join us again Friday as we switch up the “1st & Goal” preview format to take a look at matchups in every playoff division.)

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Davison 56, Lapeer 55 The Saginaw Valley League Red title race went down to the final minutes and last points of the regular season as Davison (9-0) held on to claim the outright championship; a Lapeer win would have awarded a share of the title to runner-up Grand Blanc. What’s next? The Lightning (5-4) go back to Davison for a Division 1 District Semifinal on Friday. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Watch list Harbor Beach 17. Beal City 8 This was among the headliners statewide as Harbor Beach (8-1) not only handed Beal City (8-1) its only loss but also leaped to No. 6 on the final playoff-points average list.

On the move Frankenmuth 38, Gladwin 0 Frankenmuth (8-1) went on the road for a rematch of last season’s Division 5 Final, won by Gladwin 10-7 on a closing-seconds field goal, and this time finished a regular-season run that guaranteed home games at least through the Regional and could include hosting the Flying Gs (7-2). Midland Dow 29, Midland 9 This got Dow (5-4) into the playoffs and boosted the Chargers enough to keep them home for a rematch with the Chemics (5-4) this week. Freeland 35, Croswell-Lexington 32 Freeland came back from 26 points down to not only get to (8-1) but eventually earn home field for this week’s game against Lake Fenton, which entered Week 9 only one spot behind the Falcons on the Division 4 playoff-points average list.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Lake Orion 35, Saline 28 These two entered both undefeated and Nos. 4 and 5, respectively, on the Division 1 playoff-points average list. Lake Orion (9-0) finished the weekend with its first perfect regular season since 2006 and the top spot overall in Division 1, guaranteeing itself three home playoff games. The Dragons took their first lead with 4:36 to play. Saline (8-1) moved down only to No. 6 on the Division 1 list and will be home this week as well. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Watch list Harper Woods 24, Roseville 7 The Pioneers (6-3) continued their rise from a 1-2 start and continued to benefit from a loaded schedule by moving up six spots to No. 1 on the final Division 4 playoff-points average list after avenging last season’s 28-0 loss to the Panthers (6-3).

On the move Belleville 42, Northville 0 Belleville (9-0) posted its third-straight shutout and fifth this season to claim the overall Kensington Lakes Activities Association title; the Tigers could see Northville  (8-1) again in a Regional Final. Oxford 24, Detroit U-D Jesuit 21 Oxford (4-5) climbed in the top 32 in Division 1 playoff-point average last week for the first time this season and stayed there by edging Jesuit (6-2). Birmingham Seaholm 21, Birmingham Groves 14 Seaholm (8-1) broke a four-game losing streak against its rival, and after falling to Groves in both in the regular season and playoffs last year – and the Maples will host the Falcons (6-3) again this week.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER East Lansing 35, Grand Ledge 21 East Lansing (7-2) finished an outright Capital Area Activities Conference Blue championship, its first league title since sharing the Blue in 2019, and jumped up to No. 10 on the Division 2 playoff-points average list while securing home games through the District Final. Grand Ledge (6-3), last year’s Blue co-champion, narrowly missed getting a home game and will travel in Division 1. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Portland 43, Berrien Springs 0 The Raiders (9-0) capped their first perfect regular season since 2018 with their second straight shutout and this one over another league champion in Berrien Springs (5-3).

On the move Hastings 38, Battle Creek Pennfield 3 Hastings (7-2) clinched the outright Interstate 8 Activities Conference title, the Saxons’ fourth-straight league championship (including one shared), but Pennfield also can be pleased finishing 4-5 after going 0-9 a year ago. Belding 66, Howard City Tri County 20 The Black Knights (8-1) scored a season high in their best win of the regular season as they finished 8-1 for the second straight. Tri County (7-2) helped provide the boost to keep Belding No. 5 on the final Division 5 playoff-points average list. Bath 28, Perry 6 While Perry (5-4) did still qualify for the playoffs for the first time, Bath (6-3) celebrated on this night and has made the playoffs for the second straight while also earning a home game this week in Division 7.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Gaylord 20, Sault Ste. Marie 8 Just two seasons after going 2-7, Gaylord (9-0) completed its first perfect regular season since 2002 and finished off a Big North Conference outright championship in the process. The win also kept Gaylord at No. 6 in Division 3 playoff-points average and guaranteed them home games through the District, but also likely kept Sault Ste. Marie (5-4) out of claiming one of the final spots in the Division 4 bracket. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Watch list Traverse City St. Francis 27, Muskegon Catholic Central 0 Last season’s Division 7 runner-up Gladiators had a lot of faces in different places or larger roles starting this fall, but they’ve qualified for the Division 7 playoffs thanks to a tough schedule and three wins over playoff teams including this one over MCC (5-4).

On the move Cheboygan 29, Benzie Central 25 Proving again that there’s always something to play for, Cheboygan (1-8) scored a season high in points, gave up their second fewest and closed a tough fall with an upset of playoff-bound Benzie (5-4). Traverse City West 17, Traverse City Central 8 Central (4-5) grabbed one of the final spots in the Division 2 playoff field and West (4-5) fell just three outside of qualifying, but the Titans surely should celebrate doubling their win total from a year ago and breaking a four-game losing streak against their rival. Ogemaw Heights 21, Almont 7 Ogemaw Heights (8-1) tied its winningest season since 2009, handing Almont (8-1) its only defeat, and earned a rematch, this time at home, against the only team it lost to this fall – Week 1 opponent Gladwin.

A Lapeer defender pursues a Davison ball carrier during Friday's 56-55 Cardinals win.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Addison 24, Napoleon 0 The timing couldn’t have been better for Addison to show arguably its best performance. The Panthers (9-0) earned the overall Cascades Conference championship in this matchup of previous undefeated divisional winners, posting their first shutout of the fall against an offense that was scoring 42 points per game, to avenge last year’s 36-18 loss and to move up to No. 5 on the Division 8 playoff-points average list with a home game against Hudson coming up next. Napoleon (8-1) will open the playoffs at home as well. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

Watch list Clinton 29, Hudson 0 With its second-straight shutout, Clinton (8-1) clinched an outright championship in the Lenawee County Athletic Association for the second-straight season. A Hudson win would have meant a shared title with the Tigers (7-2). Clinton has four shutouts this fall and suffered its only loss in the season opener.

On the move Chelsea 31, Dexter 21 After opening in August with a loss to Grand Rapids Northview, Chelsea (8-1) has been on a roll and made its loudest statement against the Dreadnaughts (6-3), who also hadn’t lost since starting 0-2. Ida 14, Dundee 7 Ida (5-4) jumped from No. 32 to a more comfortable No. 25 in Division 6 playoff-point average with this win, while Dundee (5-4) was left four spots outside the field in Division 5. Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 28, Detroit Country Day 27 A tough schedule already had SMCC (5-4) in fine shape to make the playoffs, but the Falcons have won three straight to move up to No. 5 on the Division 7 playoff-points average list, in this one handing County Day (3-5) its third loss by six or fewer points this fall.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Niles 56, Paw Paw 18 Niles pulled away from what had been a much closer game at halftime, in doing so claiming the Wolverine Conference championship outright and assuring itself of home games through the Regional. Moreover, the Vikings (8-1) reached eight wins for the first time since 1979, according to Michigan-Football.com, and they could host Paw Paw (8-1) if both win their Division 4 District Semifinals this week. Click for more from the Niles Daily Star.

Watch list Buchanan 34, Union City 0 The Bucks (6-3) enter the Division 6 playoffs on an impressive defensive streak, as they haven’t given up a point over their last three games – including this one against the playoff-bound Chargers (6-3).

On the move South Haven 44, Kalamazoo United 42 South Haven (6-3) will host a Division 5 playoff opener after edging the Titans (5-4), who had defeated the Rams the last two seasons including in a 2021 playoff opener. Benton Harbor 24, Hopkins 16 The Tigers’ playoff chances seemed slimmer after a tough run midseason during which they lost two one-score games over three weeks, but Benton Harbor (4-5) won two of its final three games to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2017 (not counting 2020, when all teams qualified because of the COVID-adjusted schedule). Portage Central 42, Stevensville Lakeshore 0 Portage Central (8-1) completed an outright championship run in the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference with its first shutout of the fall. Lakeshore (5-4) has reason to be pleased as well this week, as it finished the regular season back in the playoffs and two wins better than a year ago.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Iron Mountain 42, Negaunee 7 There’s conversation that Iron Mountain (9-0) may be the Upper Peninsula’s best team regardless of division this fall, and it’s hard to argue with success. The Mountaineers haven’t been challenged much after moving into the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Iron, but this win over Copper co-champion Negaunee (7-2) says plenty and kept Iron Mountain in position to host both District rounds. Click for more from UPMatters.com.

Watch list Kingsford 46, Marquette 11 Kingsford is the other side of the argument for best in the UP, and the Flivvers (8-1) have their most wins since 2017 and are a one-point loss to Negaunee from a perfect regular season. This defeat of Division 3 Marquette (5-3) pushed Kingsford to No. 10 on the Division 5 playoff-points average list.  

On the move Menominee 44, Bark River-Harris 14 The Maroons (7-2) bounced back from back-to-back losses to hold steady at No. 7 on the Division 7 playoff-points average list, but ended playoff hopes for Bark River-Harris (5-4) in the process. Gladstone 30, Escanaba 0 Gladstone (7-2) is No. 6 on the Division 6 list and will be home for both District rounds as well. Ishpeming 30, Ishpeming Westwood 0 The Hematites (6-3) have their best record since 2019 after ending a three-game losing streak to rival Westwood.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Wayland 49, Grand Rapids South Christian 40 Wayland not only qualified for the playoffs for the first time since 2013 (not counting 2020’s COVID-related format), but the Wildcats (6-3) with this win downed the reigning Division 4 champion and reached six wins for the first time since that playoff season a decade ago. They’ll go to South Christian (6-3) this week for a Division 4 District Semifinal. Click for more from Michigan Sports Radio.

Watch list Hart 44, Ravenna 0 Hart (8-1) will be making its first playoff appearance this week (not counting 2020), coming off its first win over Ravenna (3-6) since 1992 and after losing to the Bulldogs 48-0 a year ago. The eight wins are the program’s most since 1968.

On the move Rockford 48, Hudsonville 0 The Rams (9-0) finished an outright Ottawa-Kent Conference Red championship and fourth-straight perfect regular season, and could see Hudsonville (5-4) again in a District Final. Muskegon Reeths-Puffer 14, Zeeland West 12 After losing to West by 40 two seasons ago and 18 last fall, Reeths-Puffer (7-2) edged the Dux (6-3) to get to seven wins for the first time since 2013. Zeeland East 21, Muskegon Mona Shores 20 (OT) Similarly, East (6-3) had fallen to Mona Shores (6-3) by 19 in 2021 and then 35 last year before this win that boosted the Chix to No. 16 on the Division 3 playoff-points average list.

8-Player

HEADLINER Indian River Inland Lakes 36, Gaylord St. Mary 30 Inland Lakes (8-1) ran its Ski Valley Conference title streak to all three since joining the league, taking this winner-take-all matchup. Inland Lakes also moved up to No. 5 on the 8-player Division 1 playoff-points average list, while St. Mary (6-3) fell two spots and missed qualifying by four slots. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Watch list Posen 46, Au Gres-Sims 42 This winner-take-all for the North Star League Little Dipper title went Posen’s way after Au Gres-Sims (7-2) won their Week 9 matchup last season to claim the championship. Posen is 8-0 and set to host both Division 2 Regional rounds.

On the move Fulton 36, Carson City-Crystal 28 Fulton (6-3) sat three spots off the Division 2 playoff list heading into the weekend, but reached the final spot in the field by handing Carson City-Crystal (8-1) its only loss. Powers North Central 48, Crystal Falls Forest Park 24 The three-time reigning Division 2 champion Jets (7-2) also were in danger of missing the playoffs in the No. 16 slot when the weekend began – but moved up to No. 14 by getting past the Trojans (7-2). They could meet again in a Regional Final. St. Ignace 42, Pickford 10 The Saints (8-1) handed Pickford its only loss, limiting an offense that entered averaging 54 points per game. A rematch would come in a Division 1 Semifinal.

Second Half’s weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and X (Twitter) @mistudentaid.

PHOTO Bath and Perry faced off under the lights and rain in Week 9, and both will continue as the playoffs begin this weekend. (Middle) A Lapeer defender pursues a Davison ball carrier during Friday's 56-55 Cardinals win. (Top photo by Max McCallister. Middle photo by Terry Lyons.)