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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Martin's Haylen Buell charges into an opening during his team's win over Gobles.

1st & Goal: 2023 Playoff Week 2 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 6, 2023

This weekend’s 8-Player Regional Finals and 11-Player District Finals featured more rematches from the regular season that crop up when the best teams must face off again but with the winner moving on and the loser this time putting away the pads until next fall.

MI Student AidAnd as we see just about every season, those matchups during the second week of this MHSAA Playoffs showed how much can change between the first meeting to the last – even if, in some cases, only a few weeks have passed between those two games.

8-player alone featured five rematches (of eight games total) – and three were won by the team that lost the first time, Martin enjoying the greatest reversal in flipping a 37-point defeat. The 11-player series saw its share of rematches as well – with a classic nearly stealing the thunder of another massive showdown in Division 1.

Of course, several individuals stood out over the weekend’s 72 games – but a couple require special recognition. Braylon Isom tied and reset the 11-player career receiving touchdowns record with his 49th and 50th in Saginaw Heritage’s 35-13 win over Midland Dow in Division 1. About a 1½-hour drive east, in Division 8, Ubly kicker Brett Mueller set the career extra points record with five more for 209 total as his team downed Harbor Beach 35-14.

See below for more of the most notable as we neared the halfway point of this postseason:

11-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Belleville 65, Saline 14 The growing legends of Belleville and quarterback Bryce Underwood added another chapter with the team’s 36th-straight win. Underwood was nearly perfect throwing the ball as the Tigers (11-0) also held Saline (9-2) to well below its 45 points-per-game average heading into the day. Click for more from the Ann Arbor News.

District Digest Clarkston 38, Lake Orion 37 Clarkston (6-5) dealt Lake Orion (10-1) the latter’s only loss of the season, doing so by avenging a 42-21 defeat by the Dragons in Week 7 and this time coming back from two touchdowns down with five minutes to play. Southfield Arts & Technology 36, Detroit Cass Tech 25 The Warriors (10-1) claimed their first District title since 2016, adding to a 29-27 win over Cass Tech from Week 1 and avenging last season’s District Final loss to the Technicians (7-4). Northville 24, Detroit Catholic Central 17 This also was a rematch of a 2022 District Final, with Northville (10-1) avenging last season’s 42-17 loss to the Shamrocks (8-3) to earn a rematch this week with Belleville. The Tigers dealt the Mustangs their only defeat this fall, in Week 9.

11-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Byron Center 31, Caledonia 28 A back-and-forth game during the second half went Byron Center’s way permanently on the final play as the Bulldogs (10-1) scored the go-ahead touchdown to clinch their first District title since 2016. Caledonia ended 8-3 and are a combined 30-7 over the last three seasons after reaching the Division 1 Final a year ago. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

District Digest Muskegon 42, Muskegon Mona Shores 28 The Big Reds (9-2) secured their 11th District championship over the last 12 seasons, adding to a Week 4 win over the rival Sailors (7-4). Roseville 24, Grosse Pointe South 17 A program that won its first District title in 2021 now has its second in three seasons, Roseville (8-3) earning it by avenging a 16-7 Week 5 loss to the eventual MAC White champion.  Grosse Pointe South (9-2) capped its winningest season since 1987. Waterford Mott 34, Birmingham Seaholm 21 Mott (9-2) tied its school record for wins, per Michigan-Football.com, by also claiming a second District title in program history and second over the last three seasons. Seaholm finished 9-2, continuing a rise from 1-8 two seasons ago.

11-Player Division 3

HEADLINER Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 45, Mount Pleasant 21 Forest Hills Central (10-1) took a massive step as it continues to build on last season’s Division 2 runner-up finish, as these two ended the regular season fourth and second, respectively, in Division 3 playoff-point average. The Oilers finished 9-2, their only other loss in their season opener. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.

District Digest Zeeland West 46, Coopersville 32 After ending the regular season with three close losses, West (8-3) has bounced back with a repeat District championship and two of its five highest-scoring games this fall. Coopersville (8-3) ended its winningest season since 2007, and its three defeats were by a combined 18 points. Walled Lake Western 50, Auburn Hills Avondale 22 In clinching its first District title since 2019, Western (10-1) earned a rematch with the lone opponent it lost to this season, Mason. Avondale finished 9-2, its best since 2012. River Rouge 49, Riverview 27 The Panthers (7-4) ran their winning streak to six games with their first District title since 2020, and earned a rematch with Detroit Martin Luther King, which ended Rouge’s season in a playoff opener a year ago. Riverview saw an eight-game winning streak come to an end in finishing 9-2.

11-Player Division 4

HEADLINER Big Rapids 28, Whitehall 27 A final-seconds field-goal attempt block earned Big Rapids its first District title since 2003, as the Cardinals (10-1) also reached double-digit wins for the first time since that season. Whitehall (10-1) had entered the playoffs as one of only two undefeated teams in Division 4. Click for more from the Big Rapids Pioneer.

District Digest Niles 42, Paw Paw 13 Niles followed up its 56-18 Week 9 win over Paw Paw (9-2) that clinched the Wolverine Conference title with this victory to earn the Vikings (10-1) their first District championship. Haslett 30, Chelsea 22 The Vikings (8-3) went on the road and held on through the final play to clinch their first District title since 2005. Chelsea finished 9-2, nearly doubling its wins from a 5-5 run a year ago. Goodrich 21, Freeland 20 The reigning Division 4 runner-up followed up last season’s 10-9 District Final win over Freeland (9-2) as Easton Phipps scored the go-ahead touchdown for Goodrich (10-1) with 1:46 to play.

11-Player Division 5

HEADLINER Corunna 28, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 17 Corunna (11-0) downed an unbeaten opponent for the second-straight week, and in doing so set a program record for wins as Jaden Edington starred again on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame (9-1) had defeated its opponents by an average score of 54-10. Click for more from the Owosso Argus-Press.

District Digest Macomb Lutheran North 32, Marine City 30 Just 3-6 a year ago, Lutheran North (9-2) also set a program record for wins this weekend in winning its first District championship on a last-minute field goal. Marine City finished 9-2, its only other defeat coming in its season opener. Kingsford 19, Ogemaw Heights 14 Kingsford (10-1) finished its road trip with its first District championship since 2009 and after reaching 10 wins for the first time since 2004. Ogemaw Heights also finished 9-2, with its only other defeat coming in Week 1. Detroit Southeastern 26, Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard 22 Southeastern’s most recent District title had come in 2018, in Division 8, and the Jungaleers improved to 8-3 after an 0-2 start this fall. Father Gabriel Richard finished 8-3, up from 3-6 a year ago and its first winning record since 2017.

11-Player Division 6

HEADLINER Gladstone 28, Negaunee 14 Gladstone (9-2) won a District title and reached nine wins both for the second-straight season, and also avenged last year’s 18-12 Regional loss to Negaunee as the Miners went on to finish Division 6 runner-up. Negaunee’s only other losses this fall were to Iron Mountain in Week 9 and Gladstone 42-14 to start the league schedule in Week 2. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

District Digest Midland Bullock Creek 49, Chesaning 22 The Lancers (8-3) won their first District championship since 2005 and equaled their most wins since 2007, and after winning four games each of the last three seasons. Chesaning finished 9-2, its winningest run since 2001. Almont 40, Warren Michigan Collegiate 38 (OT) Almont (10-1) delivered Michigan Collegiate its lone loss after the Cougars (10-1) had come back from an early deficit in seeking what would have been a fourth-straight District title. The Pirates had fallen to Collegiate in their only other meeting, a 2021 District Final. Detroit Edison 32, Ecorse 6 Edison (8-3) continued its record-setting season with its first District championship, continuing to bounce back from last year’s 2-7 finish. Ecorse finished 8-2, reaching that win total for the third-straight season.

11-Player Division 7

HEADLINER North Muskegon 27, Lawton 24 North Muskegon (11-0) trailed by three points heading into the fourth quarter, but found the end zone one more time to clinch its first District championship since 2006 and tie the program record for wins set in 1981 and also tied in 1986. Lawton finished 9-2 and is a combined 31-6 over the last three seasons. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

District Digest Millington 21, Cass City 20 The Cardinals (11-0) repeated as District champions, scoring the game-tying touchdown and connecting on the winning extra point with 1:52 to play. Cass City finished 8-3, a solid jump after back-to-back 5-5 seasons. Jackson Lumen Christi 26, Napoleon 0 These two collided in the playoffs for the second straight season, and Lumen Christi (10-1) followed last year’s Semifinal win by ending Napoleon’s season this time at 9-2. Menominee 50, Charlevoix 14 Menominee’s best season since 2017 continued in a big way as the Maroons improved to 9-2 and ended Charlevoix’s winningest season since 1977 also at 9-2.

11-Player Division 8

HEADLINER Ithaca 29, New Lothrop 28 Joe Dawe’s field goal with eight seconds to play sent Ithaca past New Lothrop (9-2) for a second-straight District championship after winning one in Division 7 a year ago. After not playing a single-digit game during the regular season, the Yellowjackets (11-0) have won both of their playoff games by a point. New Lothrop’s only other defeat this fall came by five, in Week 2 to Chesaning. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.

District Digest Ubly 35, Harbor Beach 14 Ubly (11-0) claimed a fifth-straight District title and added to its 56-20 win over Harbor Beach (9-2) in Week 4. Ottawa Lake Whiteford 24, Hudson 14 Whiteford’s closest game since early September netted the Bobcats (11-0) their third District title in a row, and after Hudson (8-3) had won their last playoff meeting in a 2021 Semifinal. Clarkston Everest Collegiate 19, Marine City Cardinal Mooney 14 These two have met in league play and District Finals the last two seasons, and Everest (9-2) has won their last three matchups adding this to a 21-7 victory in Week 6. Cardinal Mooney ended 6-5 after bouncing back from an 0-2 start.

8-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Indian River Inland Lakes 40, St. Ignace 36 Inland Lakes (10-1) reached double-digit wins for the second time in three seasons and clinched a Regional title by avenging its lone loss of this fall. These two continued to match up about as closely as possible, with the Bulldogs claiming this meeting after St. Ignace won 30-28 in Week 4. The Saints ended their first season of 8-player at 9-2. Click for more from the Cheboygan Daily Tribune.

Regional Roundup Pickford 34, Norway 16 This was a rematch of Pickford’s 40-18 win in Week 7 and this time sent the Panthers (10-1) back to Semifinals for the first time since winning Division 2 in 2019. Norway’s 8-3 finish was its best since 2017. Kingston 26, Brown City 0 The Cardinals (9-2) have posted two of the most notable playoff victories to kick off any division, this one clinching a Regional title for the first time since 2019 but also avenging a 38-20 Week 3 loss to previously-undefeated Brown City (10-1). Martin 28, Gobles 6 Reigning Division 1 champion Martin (9-2) hurdled a major obstacle in Gobles (8-3), avenging a 53-16 loss to the Tigers from Week 4.

Freeland defenders attempt to gauge Goodrich's next move during Friday's Martians win.

8-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Adrian Lenawee Christian 56, Climax-Scotts 16 The dominance Lenawee Christian (11-0) is exhibiting this fall may eclipse its work from its undefeated championship seasons of 2020 and 2021. The Cougars opened up a 13-point lead by halftime and then extended it for their ninth win of at least 40 points this fall. Climax-Scotts (10-1) posted its best record in five seasons of 8-player. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.

Regional Roundup Lake Linden-Hubbell 37, Powers North Central 18 There will be a new Division 2 champion as Lake Linden-Hubbell (8-3) ended North Central’s three-year run in this elimination game. The win also finished a season sweep of the Jets (8-3), as the Lakes won their Week 5 meeting 28-25. Deckerville 34, Portland St. Patrick 32 Deckerville (9-2) built a lead early and held on late to clinch a first Regional title since 2017 and end the Shamrocks’ run at 9-2 – a mighty bounce-back from 3-6 in 2022. Marion 48, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 6 Marion (10-0) claimed a fourth-straight Regional championship and will enter the Semifinals undefeated for the second-straight year, this win ending the strongest of Sacred Heart’s six seasons of 8-player at 9-2 – double the success of finishing 4-5 a year ago.

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PHOTOS (Top) Martin's Haylen Buell charges into an opening during his team's win over Gobles. (Middle) Freeland defenders attempt to gauge Goodrich's next move during Friday's Martians win. (Top photo by Gary Shook; middle photo by Terry Lyons.)