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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

1st & Goal: Week 5 in Review

September 28, 2020

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Sometimes it doesn’t take long to recognize a team is very good.

We’re only two weeks into this abbreviated Michigan high school football season. But we’ve seen enough to know a few things already about likely title contenders.

Take East Lansing and Adrian Lenawee Christian, which defeated reigning MHSAA Finals champions (River Rouge and Colon, respectively) this weekend. Three more teams that finished runners-up in 2019 fell, with Northville, Hastings and Muskegon Mona Shores (see photo above) among those enjoying celebrations.

Those are just five of the victors noted below in our weekly look at results that popped off the page from every region of the state.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Flint Beecher 27, Flint Hamady 21 This was big for Beecher for two major reasons of likely similar importance. The Bucs (2-0) had lost three straight to rival Hamady (1-1). This win also puts them in prime position to win the Genesee Area Conference title. And to top it off, it was only Hamady’s second regular-season loss since the start of 2017. See highlights below from WJRT. 

Watch list Sandusky 42, Harbor Beach 30 Last week we recognized Harbor Beach for edging Ubly, but this week it’s Sandusky (2-0) for breaking a four-game losing streak to the Pirates (1-1) and grabbing early momentum in the Greater Thumb Conference East.

Remember this one Frankenmuth 35, Saginaw Swan Valley 6 Not only the did the Eagles (2-0) avenge their 2019 playoff loss, but they have now outscored their anticipated two toughest regular-season opponents by a combined 76-9.

More shoutouts Swartz Creek 14, Linden 7 The Dragons (1-1) equaled last season’s win total in one night and avenged their 37-0 loss to Linden (1-1) from last fall. Croswell-Lexington 36, Richmond 0 The Pioneers (2-0) broke an eight-game losing streak against the Blue Devils (0-2).

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Sterling Heights Stevenson 12, Macomb Dakota 7 While winning their first two games by just a combined nine points, Stevenson (2-0) has had a more noteworthy start than all but a few teams statewide after also defeating Utica Eisenhower in Week 1. The Macomb Area Conference Red got even stronger this year with the addition of Grosse Pointe South, and Stevenson is working its way toward the front of the line. Click for more from the Macomb Daily and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

Watch list Belleville 69, Dearborn Fordson 0 The last two matchups between these teams were decided by a combined four points – so now we have another reason to be plugged in to the Tigers (2-0) as they work this season to take the next step after two straight Division 1 Semifinal appearances.

Remember this one Northville 24, Brighton 14 After being shut out by Brighton (1-1) the last two seasons by a combined 55-0, the Mustangs (1-1) bounced back to down the reigning Division 1 runner-up.

More shoutouts Center Line 8, Clawson 7 The Panthers (2-0) have doubled their wins from a year ago, and in this one edged the reigning Macomb Area Conference champion. Riverview 24, Milan 12 The Pirates also avenged a 2019 loss to move to 2-0, doubling up last season’s Huron League title winner.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER East Lansing 21, River Rouge 6 The Trojans (2-0) announced themselves as deserving of serious attention in Division 2 with an impressive win over the reigning Division 3 champion. The Panthers (1-1) hadn’t been held to single-digit scoring since their 2018 playoff loss to Detroit Martin Luther King. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Harrison 26, Beaverton 21 The Beavers (1-1) had beaten Harrison four straight seasons and are reigning Jack Pine Conference champions, but now will be chasing the Hornets (2-0) for the rest of this fall.

Remember this one Hastings 14, Jackson Lumen Christi 13 The Saxons shouldn’t soon forget it. Lumen (1-1) rarely loses during the regular season; in fact, the Titans rode a 22-game regular-season winning streak into this game and had beaten Hastings (1-1) by an average of 26 points over four straight recent wins.

More shoutouts Ithaca 39, Midland Bullock Creek 34 The reigning Tri-Valley Conference West I co-champs are in different divisions this season, but this had the back-and-forth of a title decider nonetheless. Hartland 62, Plymouth 7 The Eagles (2-0) broke a four-game losing streak against Plymouth (1-1) and after falling 35-13 a year ago.

Northern Lower Peninsula 

HEADLINER Kingsley 36, Ogemaw Heights 14 The Stags (2-0) ran their Northern Michigan Football League Legends winning streak to 12, with all of those wins by 19 or more points. The Falcons (1-1), previously a nonleague opponent, joined the Legends this season. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Houghton Lake 32, Lake City 14 The Bobcats (2-0) have now won eight of nine league games since moving into the Highland Conference at the start of the 2019 season. 

Remember this one Frankfort 40, St. Ignace 12 Both had opened the season with defeats, but Frankfort got a nice rebound against a Saints team that made the playoffs last season. 

More shoutouts Benzie Central 34, Cheboygan 14 Cheboygan had won all five meetings over the last decade, including 44-0 a year ago. Harbor Springs 30, East Jordan 8 The Rams (2-0) have opened by outscoring their first two opponents by a combined 79-8.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Reading 52, Breckenridge 20 If this was any indication, two-time reigning Division 8 champion Reading (2-0) isn’t leaving the elite any time soon. The 52 points represent the most Breckenridge (1-1) has given up since Week 4 of 2015. The Rangers have won 15 straight. Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News. 

Watch list Blissfield 31, Hillsdale 14 The Royals (2-0) are tied for the early lead in the Lenawee County Athletic Association after last year’s seven-point Hillsdale win in this matchup eventually led to the Hornets’ outright title.

Remember this one Clinton 54, Brooklyn Columbia Central 6 Clinton (2-0) is a new addition to the LCAA and immediately should impact the league title race – with Blissfield up this week.

More shoutouts Monroe 42, Jackson 14 The Trojans, winners of just three games a year ago, moved to 2-0 with a second victory over a team that finished above .500 last season. Ann Arbor Skyline 23, Ann Arbor Pioneer 7 Ann Arbor’s three public high schools opted to begin with Week 5, and Skyline began with equaling last season’s win total by avenging a 2019 defeat.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Coldwater 24, Marshall 16 After two weeks, Coldwater is one of two teams (with Parma Western) still unbeaten from what’s quickly looking like a highly-competitive Interstate 8 Athletic Conference. Marshall might be one of the best 0-2 teams in the state after also falling to Lumen Christi by just a point in Week 4. Click for more from the Coldwater Daily Reporter.

Watch list Centreville 14, White Pigeon 8 The Bulldogs lost three Southwest 10 Conference games by a combined 24 points last season. This avenged one, and the other two opponents – Cassopolis then Mendon – are up next.

Remember this one Comstock 12, Berrien Springs 6 The Colts (1-1) broke a five-game losing streak against Berrien Springs and after losing 30-0 a year ago.

More shoutouts Vicksburg 43, Three Rivers 0 After a rough start Week 4 against Edwardsburg, Vicksburg (1-1) bounced back with a big win. Battle Creek Lakeview 6, Portage Central 0 The Spartans ran their regular-season winning streak to 11 with this their closest win of the run.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Sault Ste. Marie 22, Marquette 16 The Blue Devils backed up the impressiveness their Week 4 opening win over Traverse City St. Francis with another that may have solidified them as the Upper Peninsula’s best this fall. Sault Ste. Marie (2-0) had lost four straight to Marquette (1-1), including 31-0 a year ago. Click for more from the Sault Ste. Marie Evening News.

Watch list Gladstone 22, Negaunee 20 The Braves (1-0) didn’t open until this weekend, but started out with a win over a traditional power and after falling behind early.

Remember this one Menominee 42, Marinette, Wis., 8 We always note this rivalry series that goes back to 1894 and that Menominee now leads 56-51-7.

More shoutouts West Iron County 16, L’Anse 7 Two games in, West Iron (2-0) has given up a combined 13 points. Iron Mountain 42, Bark River-Harris 6 The Mountaineers (2-0) ran their regular-season winning streak to 14 with this one over a 2019 playoff qualifier.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Muskegon Mona Shores 21, Muskegon 14 There are only a handful of matchups in Michigan these days that can contend with this one to be called the state’s best rivalry game. This latest chapter backs that up. After falling to the Big Reds 53-0 a year ago and going on to win the Division 2 championship, Mona Shores (2-0) this time beat Muskegon (1-1) – last season’s Division 3 runner-up – for the first time since 2015. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Watch list Montague 42, Muskegon Oakridge 6 This also belongs high on the statewide rivalry list, with this big win coming off two seasons where the matchups were decided by a combined three points. 

Remember this one Byron Center 41, Grand Rapids Christian 6 The new-look Ottawa-Kent Conference White is impressive, and defeating last year’s Gold champ big could be a sign reigning Green champ Byron Center is ready to be in the mix again.

More shoutouts Hudsonville Unity Christian 39, Grand Rapids West Catholic 21 Unity (2-0) seems like a strong pick to emerge as a power in the new O-K Blue, and if tradition holds this win could mean even more in a few weeks. Manistee 34, Muskegon Orchard View 20 The 2018 Lakes 8 Athletic Conference champ avenged last season’s 58-7 defeat to the eventual 2019 title winner.

8-Player

HEADLINER Adrian Lenawee Christian 24, Colon 6 Make way for the Cougars (2-0). Lenawee, in its first season of 8-player, broke reigning Division 1 champion Colon’s 14-game winning streak and dealt the Magi (1-1) only their third loss as an 8-player program (against 24 wins). Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram. 

Watch list Whittemore-Prescott 66, Mio 16 A late add to 8-player this fall, Whittemore-Prescott has scored a combined 114 points during its 2-0 start.

Remember this one Martin 39, Bridgman 12 Last season’s Martin win in this matchup ultimately decided the Southwest Michigan 8-Man Football League title.

More shoutouts Pickford 20, Cedarville 0 The Panthers (2-0) appear on their way again after a fifth-straight win over the Trojans (1-1). Hale 14, Hillman 12 After falling just shy 54-42 against the Tigers last season, Hale scored just enough and rebounded after a season-opening loss.

PHOTO: Muskegon Mona Shores avenged its 2019 loss to Muskegon on Friday with a 21-14 victory. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)