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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

1st & Goal: Week 7 in Review

October 12, 2020

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Yes, it’s true. We’re days from mid-October, with only two regular-season football games remaining, celebrating league champions and starting to look forward to the MHSAA Playoffs.

All of that has seemed to come on quickly this fall, but Week 7 provided us even more of what we’re used to enjoying every year.

In front of larger crowds at many stadiums, we watched the most unusual fall in a century continue to take shape – starting with a major southwestern matchup Thursday night and concluding Saturday with a few more indicators of what might be on the way as this season’s best contenders continue to rise.  

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Port Huron 20, Port Huron Northern 7 The Big Reds (4-0) added on to last year’s playoff-opener win over Northern by breaking a three-game regular-season losing streak versus the Huskies (2-1). In doing so, Port Huron clinched a share of the Macomb Area Conference Blue championship and can finish an outright run this week against winless Sterling Heights. Click for more from the Port Huron Times Herald.

Watch list North Branch 56, Richmond 7 This is two weeks straight for the Broncos (4-0), who have avenged both of their regular-season losses from last year and sit alone atop the Blue Water Area Conference standings.  

Remember this one Freeland 21, Saginaw Swan Valley 14 The Falcons (3-1) broke a four-game losing streak against the Vikings (2-2) and in doing so clinched a share of the Tri-Valley Conference Central title.

More shoutouts Reese 23, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port 20 The Rockets (1-3) made their first win count, upsetting Laker (3-1) and toppling it from a first-place tie in the Greater Thumb Conference West. Cass City 28, Unionville-Sebewaing 24 The Red Hawks, who don’t play Laker during this abbreviated season, were beneficiaries of that Reese upset and now sit atop the West together with only Bad Axe thanks also to this close win over USA (2-2).

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Grosse Pointe South 21, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 17 Joining one of the toughest leagues in the state hasn’t fazed newcomer Grosse Pointe South (3-1) this fall, as it showed against reigning champ Chippewa Valley (2-2). The Blue Devils find themselves tied with Macomb Dakota and Sterling Heights Stevenson for first place, and with Stevenson up next. Click for more from MLive-Detroit and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

Watch list Clarkston 31, Lake Orion 7 The Wolves (4-0) continued their bounce back this fall by clinching a share of the Oakland Activities Association Red title while dealing the Dragons (2-1) their first defeat.

Remember this one Birmingham Seaholm 35, Birmingham Groves 28 Make that two in a row in this rivalry for Seaholm (3-1) after breaking a former seven-game losing streak to Groves (2-2) during last season’s playoffs.

More shoutouts Detroit Catholic Central 27, Orchard Lake St. Mary's 10 The Shamrocks (4-0) capped a perfect run through the Detroit Catholic League Central, holding their three league opponents to a combined 32 points. Rochester Hills Stoney Creek 23, Rochester Adams 10 The Cougars (4-0) defeated Adams (1-3) for the first time since 2014 and in doing so clinched a share of the OAA White championship.  

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Mason 42, Fowlerville 14 The Bulldogs (4-0) ran their regular-season winning streak to 15 and set up a Week 9 winner-takes-all with also-undefeated Williamston for the Capital Area Activities Conference Red championship. Mason put up its most points in a game this season and has now held its four opponents to a combined 43. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Olivet 30, Lake Odessa Lakewood 6 The Eagles (4-0) extended their Greater Lansing Activities Conference winning streak to 18 while clinching a share of the league title – and with unbeaten Williamston up next for an intriguing nonleague matchup.

Remember this one DeWitt 43, Warren De La Salle Collegiate 3 The Panthers (4-0) already were off to another strong local start, but defeating the Pilots (1-3) on the road no doubt drew plenty of statewide eyes.  

More shoutouts Breckenridge 29, Carson City-Crystal 7 The Huskies (3-1) are 5-for-5 in the Mid-State Activities Conference, this win clinching their fifth title in five seasons playing in the league. Durand 20, Chesaning 14 The Railroaders (4-0) not only are off to their best start since 2016, but this was their first margin of victory smaller than 21 this fall.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Traverse City Central 57, Alpena 0 The Trojans (4-0) earned a share of a repeat championship in the Big North Conference, and how they’ve rumbled through league competition the last few years has been exceptional. Central has won 13 straight league games, going back nearly three full league seasons, and with the last 11 consecutive wins all by at least 24 points. Click for more from MI Sports Now.

Watch list Evart 34, Lake City 21 After opening 0-2, Evart (2-2) has won two weeks over opponents that last season outscored the Wildcats by a combined 64-12.

Remember this one Harbor Springs 57, Frankfort 22 The Rams (3-1) set themselves up to play Johannesburg-Lewiston in Week 9 for the Northern Michigan Football Conference Legacy title.

More shoutouts Oscoda 58, Blanchard Montabella 0 That the Owls are 4-0 isn’t super stunning coming off last year’s league title, but that they’ve yet to give up a point is impressive no matter the circumstances. East Jordan 48, Alcona 22 The Red Devils (3-1), counting the end of 2019, have won six of their last eight games.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Milan 24, New Boston Huron 7 A Week 5 loss to current leader Riverview has Milan (3-1) still trailing in the Huron League by a game with one to play. But the Big Reds hung on to a shared title hope by handing New Boston Huron (3-1) its first defeat. Click for more from the Monroe News.

Watch list Hillsdale 22, Brooklyn Columbia Central 21 Blissfield leads the Lenawee County Athletic Association, but Hillsdale (3-1) is tied with Week 9 opponent Clinton for second place as both hope for a Royals stumble.

Remember this one Michigan Center 36, Grass Lake 28 After two weeks off, Michigan Center (1-1) shook up the Cascades Conference standings, pulling Grass Lake (3-1) out of a tie for first place.

More shoutouts Adrian Madison 39, Morenci 22 The Trojans’ next two opponents are a combined 1-7, and if Madison gets to 5-1 it would guarantee its winningest season since 2009. Erie Mason 52, Britton Deerfield 12 The Eagles (4-0) won to set up a Tri-County Conference title match for this week with also-undefeated Sand Creek.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Centreville 36, Mendon 0 The Bulldogs are well into a third season of impressive football after struggles through most of the last decade, and this might be one of the biggest wins in recent memory. Centreville traveled to Mendon and emerged in the matchup of unbeatens with a share of the Southwest 10 Conference championship and a second shutout in four games this fall. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.

Watch list Battle Creek Harper Creek 28, Coldwater 7 This puts Harper Creek at only 1-2 in the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference, but dropped Coldwater into a mix of six teams that has one or two league defeats.

Remember this one Marshall 41, Parma Western 27 Having lost to two other league contenders close, Marshall (2-2) caused some I8AC juggling as well with this win over former lone league leader Western (3-1).

More shoutouts Buchanan 42, Comstock 7 The Bucks (4-0) inched closer to a possible Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference title, now needing to win one of their final two regular-season games to clinch a share. Battle Creek Pennfield 28, Jackson Lumen Christi 20 The Panthers (2-2) hadn’t gotten within 15 points of Lumen Christi (2-2) during their first six meetings as part of the I8AC together.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Kingsford 30, Gladstone 28 Getting a read on the Upper Peninsula pecking order is getting pretty difficult this fall, as Marquette, Sault Ste. Marie and Gladstone all have taken turns as the possible leader. Kingsford (3-1) is at least in the growing mix now coming off this close win – which also gave the Braves (2-1) three two-point games in three tries this season. Click for more from RRN Sports.

Watch list Sault Ste. Marie 34, Benzie Central 13 The Blue Devils (3-1) bounced back from their two-point Week 6 loss to Gladstone by sending Benzie Central to 2-2.

Remember this one Marquette 44, Menominee 26 That’s two Marquette wins over the rival Maroons (2-2) over four weeks, this one giving Marquette (3-1) a share of the Great Northern Conference title.

More shoutouts Gwinn 14, Norway 12 The Modeltowners (2-2) avenged a 28-20 loss from a year ago. Ishpeming Westwood 55, L'Anse 15 The Patriots (3-1) gave up a forfeit to open the season but haven’t lost since.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Byron Center 36, Lowell 22 The Bulldogs (4-0) became the lone leaders atop a strong Ottawa-Kent Conference White, adding a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns to hold off the Red Arrows in another matchup of previously-undefeated teams. Lowell (3-1) pulled within seven late before Byron Center added one more score. See highlights below from WZZM.

Watch list Muskegon Catholic Central 40, Manistee 0 The Crusaders (4-0) clinched a share of the Lakes 8 Athletic Conference championship in dominating fashion, shutting out Manistee (3-1) for the second-straight season.

Remember this one Reed City 70, Newaygo 40 This one will reach the record book as offense reigned and Reed City (4-0) held on to its lead in the Central State Activities Association Gold.

More shoutouts Grand Rapids South Christian 32, Cedar Springs 14 The Sailors (4-0) join Week 9 opponent Grand Rapids Catholic Central alone atop the O-K Gold as both have claimed wins over Cedar Springs (2-2). Hopkins 34, Belding 28 The Vikings (4-0) are leaders alone in the O-K White after handing Belding (3-1) its lone defeat.

8-Player

HEADLINER Mayville 58, Deckerville 54 As noted in Friday’s preview, Mayville has seemed like a program on the verge of this level of win. The Wildcats (4-0) not only avenged last season’s 44-12 loss to the Eagles (3-1) but they ended Deckerville’s 18-game regular-season winning streak while staying tied for first in the North Central Thumb League Stars. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.

Watch list Pellston 34, Gaylord St. Mary 28 While the Ski Valley Conference standings will be unbalanced because of the abbreviated schedule, Pellston (4-0) absolutely has earned its status as at least a co-champion by finishing its league slate with an impressive win over the Snowbirds (3-1).

Remember this one Bridgman 34, New Buffalo 20 Five teams in the Southwestern Michigan 8-man Football League have one conference loss, with Bridgman (3-1) handing New Buffalo (3-1) its first.

More shoutouts Morrice 56, Genesee 14 As the NCTL Stars reshuffled in part because of Mayville/Deckerville over the weekend, the Orioles (4-0) joined Mayville among undefeated teams in the league by handing Genesee (3-1) its first defeat. Munising 28, Stephenson 14 The Eagles (3-1) don’t lose a step in their Great Lakes Eight West race, but Munising (4-0) impressed again in remaining undefeated.

PHOTO: Fremont earned its first win this season in Week 6, defeating Remus Chippewa Hills 42-26. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)