Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

1st & Goal: Playoff Week 2 Preview

November 6, 2020

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

The summery weather may make this weekend feel like mid-September in much of Michigan.

And this weekend certainly has the feeling of playoff football as we move to 256 teams in 11-player and 32 in 8, with matchups toughening and urgency rising.

Read on for a glance at 11-player District Semifinals and 8-player Regional Semifinals of particular note in each division. Spectator limits are again in effect (check with your local school for purchasing information), but there’s an opportunity to watch one or more of 53 games being broadcast on MHSAA.tv or FOX Sports Detroit.

Games below are Friday unless noted. Historical context is based in part on data at Michigan-football.com.

11-Player

Division 1

Grand Blanc (6-1) at Clarkston (7-0)

This will be the fourth playoff meeting of these teams over the last 11 seasons, and Grand Blanc is seeking its first win over the Wolves since 2010. The Bobcats’ offense is averaging nearly 40 points per game – and the key matchup will be how it contends with a Clarkston defense that hasn’t given up more than seven in a game in a month.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Hudsonville (5-2) at Rockford (5-0), Traverse City West (6-1) at Grandville (6-1), Howell (4-3) at White Lake Lakeland (6-0), Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (3-3) at Rochester Hills Stoney Creek (6-0). 

Division 2

Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (6-1) at Muskegon Mona Shores (7-0)

These two are meeting in the playoffs for the third time in four seasons – they didn’t see each other last year when Mona Shores made its run to the Division 2 championship. The Sailors haven’t slowed since, putting up nearly 48 points per game with their most impressive wins over Muskegon early and Detroit Martin Luther King two weeks ago. Forest Hills Central has allowed only one opponent to score more than 14 points – Byron Center, which handed the Rangers’ their lone defeat.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Battle Creek Lakeview (5-2) at Portage Northern (6-1), Midland Dow (5-2) at Midland (7-0), Birmingham Groves (4-3) at Birmingham Seaholm (5-2), Swartz Creek (5-2) at Traverse City Central (6-1).

Division 3

River Rouge (5-1) at Riverview (7-0)

The reigning champion Panthers are riding a four-shutout streak since an open date Week 6, but will get their strongest test since a Week 5 loss to East Lansing. The Riverview scoring machine over six games has put up just eight points fewer than it scored over 11 games in 2019. The Pirates are scoring 44.5 per game and have broken 40 in four straight.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Marysville (6-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (4-3), Battle Creek Harper Creek (5-2) at St. Joseph (6-1). SATURDAY Cedar Springs (5-2) at Muskegon (6-1), Marquette (6-1) at Mount Pleasant (6-1). 

Division 4

Croswell-Lexington (6-1) at North Branch (7-0)

These two decided the Blue Water Area Conference championship in Week 5, when the Broncos emerged with a 27-20 victory. Both won rematches by double digits last week, Croswell-Lexington over Imlay City and North Branch over Yale, and it’s fair to anticipate this rematch will be one of the headliners of this playoff round.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Paw Paw (5-2) at Hastings (6-1), Detroit Country Day (4-2) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (6-1), Goodrich (6-1) at Ortonville Brandon (6-1). SATURDAY Livonia Clarenceville (5-2) at Redford Union (6-1).

Division 5

Portland (6-1) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (6-1)

A strong playoff rivalry over the last decade will be renewed as these two meet in the postseason for the first time since 2017 and sixth time in 11 years. They’ve gotten here by similar roads this fall, both mostly dominating aside from lone losses to contenders in bigger divisions, Portland to Division 3 DeWitt and West Catholic to Division 4 Hudsonville Unity Christian.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Saginaw Swan Valley (4-3) at Essexville Garber (6-1), Belding (6-1) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (6-0), Olivet (6-1) at Kalamazoo Hackett Catholic Prep (6-1), Almont (3-2) at Frankenmuth (7-0).

Division 6

Clare (7-0) at Montague (7-0), Saturday

Clare’s road has been one of the toughest from the start, even given last week’s score over another league champion. The Pioneers defeated Kent City 41-6 but now must travel to take on a Montague team that annually is in the title mix and missed out on Ford Field last year by a one-point Semifinal loss.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Boyne City (5-2) at Maple City Glen Lake (5-2), Adrian Madison (6-1) at Michigan Center (4-1), Erie Mason (7-0) at Clinton (6-1). SATURDAY Durand (5-2) at Detroit Edison (5-2). 

Division 7

Sandusky (7-0) at Cass City (7-0)

These two have met the last two playoffs, Cass City winning by four points in 2018 and then 40 a year ago. This rematch should be much more like the first, in part because Sandusky’s defense is nearly matching its more impressive 2018 by giving up just under 14 points per game. Both also played Reese to nearly identical scores over the last two weeks (Cass City winning 36-26, Sandusky 36-28), perhaps a better indicator of how they might match up.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Oscoda (7-0) at Beaverton (6-1), Grass Lake (5-2) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (5-2). SATURDAY Detroit Central (5-2) at Madison Heights Bishop Foley (6-1), Homer (5-2) at Lawton (6-1).

Division 8

Breckenridge (6-1) at Beal City (6-1)

Despite their proximity, these two haven’t met during the last five years of both being championship contenders. But they have taken similar paths to get here. The Huskies have gotten a good look at solid competition this fall, handing Carson City-Crystal its only loss and losing only to reigning Division 8 champion Reading. After losing to Reading in last year’s championship game, Beal City’s only defeat was by four this fall to still-undefeated McBain.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Unionville-Sebewaing (5-2) at Ubly (5-2), Mendon (6-1) at Reading (6-1), Royal Oak Shrine Catholic (5-2) at Auburn Hills Oakland Christian (6-1), Gwinn (4-3) at Iron Mountain (6-1).

8-Player

Division 1

Mayville (7-0) at Adrian Lenawee Christian (7-0)

Both are nearing relatively uncharted territory for their programs – in fact, Mayville has its most wins since 1987. This should be Lenawee Christian’s strongest challenge since handing Colon its only loss, 24-6 in Week 5. The Wildcats have been tested by tougher competition lately, but telling could be how both defeated International Academy of Flint by nearly identical scores over the last three weeks.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Indian River Inland Lakes (6-1) at Pellston (7-0), Whittemore-Prescott (5-2) at Suttons Bay (7-0), Mesick (5-2) at Gaylord St. Mary (6-1), Merrill (6-1) at Morrice (7-0).  

Division 2

Rapid River (6-1) at Cedarville (6-1)

In Week 6, Cedarville broke a four-game losing streak against the Rockets with a 32-20 win. That was Rapid River’s only loss this season; Cedarville’s had come the week before to Division 1 contender (and last season’s Division 2 champion) Pickford. The key in this rematch could be the Trojans’ continuing defensive strength; they’ve kept four opponents to single digits and haven’t allowed more than 20 points this fall.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Bay City All Saints (4-2) at Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (6-1). SATURDAY Brethren (5-2) at Hale (6-1), Peck (4-3) at Kinde North Huron (6-1), Lake Linden-Hubbell (4-3) at Powers North Central (7-0).  

PHOTO: Fenton, here against Walled Lake Central last week, faces North Farmington tonight in a District Semifinal. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)