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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

1st & Goal: Playoff Week 4 in Review

January 10, 2021

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Every chance to compete is an opportunity to accomplish something never achieved before.

The return of MHSAA football Saturday loudly reminded us how much we’ve been missing those moments.

Among four 8-Player Semifinals winners, one earned the championship game trip for the first time and two more will get another chance at claiming a first title. Stories were unfolding as well all over the 11-Player Regional Finals as the sun seemed to shine extra brightly on teams playing the first January football games in Michigan high school history.

Below is a glance at all of those games, with highlights from those that especially jumped off the page. Keep up-to-date by visiting the MHSAA Football Playoff Home and watch many of this weekend’s games on demand on MHSAA.tv.

8-Player

Division 1

SEMIFINAL Adrian Lenawee Christian 47, Martin 12 The Cougars (10-0) will play for a championship for the first time after yet another big win – Lenawee Christian’s average margin of victory this season is 50 points. Martin (8-2), which was making its first Semifinal appearance since 1987, is a combined 18-3 over two seasons of 8-player. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

SEMIFINAL Suttons Bay 1, Indian River Inland Lakes 0 The reigning Division 1 runner-up Norseman advanced to the championship game due to an Inland Lakes forfeit.

Division 2

SEMIFINAL Powers North Central 50, Marion 2 The Jets (10-0) launched to a 36-0 first-quarter lead to get back to the championship round for the first time since 2016. North Central has given up only 24 points total over four playoff games. Marion finished its winningest season since 1992 at 8-2. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

SEMIFINAL Portland St. Patrick 34, Kinde North Huron 12 The Shamrocks (10-0) will play in the championship round for the third time in four seasons and second straight. This was the third time in those four seasons these two met in the playoffs. North Huron finished 8-1, its best since 2017. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

11-Player

Division 1

HEADLINER Davison 20, Detroit Catholic Central 7 Davison quarterback Brendan Sullivan (now at Northwestern) is one of the most high-profile seniors who has moved on to college football, and it’s fair to say most expected that to be an additional boost for Detroit Catholic Central (9-1). But the reigning Division 1 champion Cardinals (10-0) instead enjoyed an incredible breakout performance by new quarterback Dion Brown Jr. plus a defensive effort that held the Shamrocks 22 points below their season average. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Regional Roundup Belleville 43, Detroit Cass Tech 16 This was arguably the most high-profile Division 1 game heading into the weekend, and the Tigers (10-0) put up their most impressive victory of what’s now a fourth-straight double-digit win season, holding Cass Tech (9-1) to 25 points below its average. Rockford 40, Saline 17 The Rams (8-0) are headed to the Semifinals for the first time since 2012 after locking up a Saline offense that averaged 40 points per game during an 8-1 start. West Bloomfield 52, Romeo 14 The Lakers (9-1) clinched their first Regional title since 2017 with a third-straight scoring output of 50 points or more thanks in part to four Donovan Edwards touchdowns. Romeo (5-5) still has much to celebrate after entering the postseason 2-4.

Division 2

HEADLINER Muskegon Mona Shores 24, East Lansing 21 The reigning Division 2 champion Sailors (10-0) advanced by connecting on a 25-yard field goal as time expired. The Regional championship was Shores’ third straight. East Lansing (9-1) meanwhile came back to tie in the fourth quarter before falling short; the Trojans also had come up just three points short in its most recent previous Regional run in 2017.  Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Regional Roundup Oak Park 30, Livonia Churchill 23 The long break didn’t derail Oak Park’s dream postseason, as the Knights improved to 5-5 after entering the postseason 1-5 with only a forfeit win. Churchill (6-3) reached the Regional Finals for the second-straight season. Traverse City Central 50, North Farmington 22 The Trojans (9-1) are headed to the Semifinals for the first time since 1988, which came before the old Traverse City High split into Central and West. North Farmington (7-3) saw the end of its deepest tournament run since 1978. Warren De La Salle Collegiate 45, Warren Mott 3 The Pilots (6-4) entered the playoffs 2-4 and have outscored its four postseason opponents on average 44-6. Mott (8-2) can celebrate its winningest season since 2013, which came despite the abbreviated schedule.

Division 3

HEADLINER River Rouge 33, Detroit Martin Luther King 30 The reigning champion Panthers (13-1) won another classic matchup with King, which had won their 2018 playoff meeting by a point. Like Mona Shores in Division 2, River Rouge clinched its Regional title with a late field goal. King (6-4) had won five straight Regional titles. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Regional Roundup Muskegon 24, East Grand Rapids 0 The Big Reds (9-1) claimed a fifth-consecutive Regional title with their first shutout of the season, stopping the Pioneers (6-4) who had entered averaging 31 points per game. This was the third straight season Muskegon defeated EGR in the playoffs, and second straight in this round. Chelsea 38, Flint Kearsley 22 The Bulldogs (10-0) secured a third-straight Regional title and third-straight double-digit win season, while ending the deepest postseason run for the Hornets (6-4) since 1998. DeWitt 1, Stevensville Lakeshore 0 The Panthers advanced to the Semifinals as Lakeshore withdrew from the tournament.

Division 4

HEADLINER Cadillac 27, Ada Forest Hills Eastern 23 Less than 24 hours after Cadillac had to move its home game to Traverse City, the Vikings (7-2) came back to win its first Regional title in six tries. Forest Hills Eastern (6-4), playing for its first Regional title since 2015, led by 14 points at halftime. The Hawks did complete their best season since that 2015 run, with two more wins than a season ago. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Regional Roundup Edwardsburg 47, Grand Rapids South Christian 7 The Eddies (9-0) marched to their fourth Regional title in five seasons, continuing a streak of scoring at least 43 points in every game this season. South Christian (8-2) closed its winningest campaign since 2014. Williamston 38, Milan 21 The Hornets (9-1) won their second Regional title in three seasons with their second-highest scoring output of this one to get past Milan (8-2) as it played in a Regional Final for the second-straight season. Detroit Country Day 38, North Branch 0 The reigning Division 4 runner-up Yellowjackets (7-2) slowed a North Branch offense that was averaging 43 points per game during its first run to the Regional Finals. The Broncos finished 9-1, their winningest season since 2006.

Division 5

HEADLINER Frankenmuth 31, Marine City 7 The Eagles scored 24 unanswered points during the second half to clinch a third Regional title in five seasons and first since 2017. Frankenmuth (10-0) was able to get its running game going to break away, while the defense held Marine City (8-2) to 33 points below its average. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

Regional Roundup Grand Rapids Catholic Central 58, Muskegon Oakridge 7 Last season’s Division 4 champion, the Cougars (9-0) are in Division 5 for the first time and won their fifth straight Regional title. The loss was the second for Oakridge (7-3) to a team still undefeated this season. Lansing Catholic 28, Grosse Ile 5 The reigning Division 5 champion Cougars (8-2) pulled within two wins of a repeat with their third single-digit defensive performance of the playoffs and with Grosse Ile (6-4) averaging 33 points per game entering the afternoon. Freeland 1, Reed City 0 The Falcons advanced with a forfeit win.

Division 6

HEADLINER Clinton 13, Warren Michigan Collegiate 12 Defense dominated this matchup, especially during a scoreless second half. In the end, Clinton (9-1) held on for its second-straight win by three or fewer points and first Regional title since 2015. Michigan Collegiate (9-1) completed its fifth straight season with two or fewer losses, keyed by a defense that gave up only 3.1 points per game. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Regional Roundup Grayling 56, Negaunee 26 After two straight three-win seasons, Grayling (7-3) is headed to the Semifinals for the first time after getting past the Miners (6-4). The Vikings found success against a Negaunee defense that had given up only 47 points total over its first three playoff games. Montague 41, Montrose 16 The Wildcats (10-0) reached 10 wins for the fourth-straight season with their third-straight Regional title, as the Rams (8-2) ended in this round for the second-straight season. Constantine 33, Michigan Center 14 The Falcons (9-1) ran their winning streak to nine and now have their winningest season since 2012 and first Regional title since that fall after downing Michigan Center (6-2), which also hadn’t lost since its season opener. The Cardinals can still celebrate bouncing back from their 4-5 finish in 2019.

Division 7

HEADLINER Cass City 50, Ithaca 24 Both entered undefeated, and Cass City (10-0) is moving on to the Semifinals for a second-straight season after getting more than a 100 yards rushing from a pair of backs and two touchdowns rushing and a third passing from quarterback Bryce Fernald. Despite the shortened schedule, Ithaca (9-1) finished with its winningest season in three, improving on eight victories in both 2018 and 2019. Click for more from the Bay City Times.

Regional Roundup Schoolcraft 29, Jackson Lumen Christi 22 In its third-straight trip to the Regional Finals, Schoolcraft (9-1) broke through for its first win in this round since 2001. In the process, the Eagles ended Lumen Christi’s season at 5-5, bringing to a close a streak of 31 consecutive with winning records. New Lothrop 41, Detroit Loyola 7 After missing the Semifinals by a one-point Regional loss last season, New Lothrop is headed back thanks to its sixth single-digit defensive effort of this run. Loyola (8-2) did finish its winningest season since 2016, two victories better than in 2019. Traverse City St. Francis 1, Oscoda 0 The Gladiators advanced after Oscoda withdrew from the tournament.

Division 8

HEADLINER Johannesburg-Lewiston 7, Iron Mountain 6 The Cardinals (10-0) journeyed to the Superior Dome and held on after scoring their lone points during the final minutes of the first half. Iron Mountain (8-2) had gone for two on its touchdown early in the second quarter, but was unable to convert a two-point try. The Regional title was Johannesburg-Lewiston’s first since 1998. Click for more from the Gaylord Herald Times.

Regional Roundup Ubly 36, Carson City-Crystal 6 The Bearcats missed making it to Ford Field a year ago by a one-point Semifinal defeat, and they’ve earned another chance with another impressive defensive effort – they’ve given up a combined 28 points over four playoff games. Carson City-Crystal (6-2) finished its deepest playoff run since 1999. Centreville 8, Sand Creek 0 The Bulldogs (9-0) put up their sixth shutout of the season, this one to earn their first Regional championship. Sand Creek (8-2) completed its deepest playoff run since 2007. Clarkston Everest Collegiate 35, Petersburg Summerfield 0 The Mountaineers (10-0) won their first Regional title, in the process reaching double-digit wins for the first time in the program’s eight-season history. Summerfield (4-6) entered the playoffs just 1-5 but reached the Regional Finals for the first time since 2011.

PHOTO: Muskegon, on offense, returned to the field Saturday with a Division 3 Regional Final win over East Grand Rapids. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)