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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
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1st & Goal: 11-Player Semifinals Preview
January 15, 2021
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Five months have passed since the first football practices of this season.
But 24 hours from now, 16 11-player teams will have earned tickets to the destination they’ve been dreaming about since long before those first snaps of the fall.
The last outdoor MHSAA football games of January 2021 will send 15 more teams to Ford Field for the Jan. 22-23 Finals, with Semifinals to be played all over the Lower Peninsula (and one finalist already decided as Centreville will advance after a forfeit).
Spectators remain limited this weekend, but every game will be streamed live by FOX Sports Detroit or MHSAA.com – Click for the list of broadcasts.
Visit the MHSAA Football Playoff Home for Saturday’s entire schedule and scores as they come in, and see below for a glance at the matchups that will determine this season’s championship weekend field.
Division 1
Davison (10-0) at Rockford (8-0)
Reigning Division 1 champion Davison might be missing quarterback Brendan Sullivan, now at Northwestern, but Dion Brown Jr. stepped in mightily last week after leading the team in receiving prior to the move. Carter Cryderman (848 yards/11 TDs) paces a rushing attack averaging 215 yards per game. The Rams have succeeded with a similar style, averaging 222 yards on the ground with lead back Ethan Nash and quarterback Zak Ahern combining for 1,217 yards and 14 touchdowns rushing. Ahern also has 20 touchdowns passes.
West Bloomfield (9-1) at Belleville (10-0)
Two of the most exciting offensive stars in the state will face off among a collection of future college players taking the field in this Semifinal. West Bloomfield running back Donovan Edwards ran for four touchdowns in last week’s return-to-play Regional Final win over Romeo, while Belleville quarterback Christian Dhue-Reid threw three touchdowns passes as the Tigers handed Detroit Cass Tech its lone loss of this season.
Division 2
Traverse City Central (9-1) at Muskegon Mona Shores (10-0)
Shores quarterback Brady Rose started his star run stepping in for an injured all-stater at last year’s Final and leading the Sailors to the Division 2 title. Now he has his team one win from returning to Ford Field having run for 1,057 yards and 17 touchdowns and thrown for 949 yards and 10 scores this season. The Trojans are playing for their first Finals berth since 1988, before the old Traverse City High split into Central and West. Josh Burnham is another standout quarterback, with 903 yards and 18 TDs rushing and 1,215 yards and 16 scores through the air.
Oak Park (5-5) at Warren De La Salle Collegiate (6-4)
Oak Park is one of the best stories so far of this playoffs, as it entered the first all-in postseason in MHSAA football history with a single victory. Running back Davion Primm is another of the top talents in the entire state and the focus of an offense that scored 25 points total over five regular-season games followed by a combined 119 over four playoff wins. The Pilots will attempt to end that dream run, in part with a defense that has given up only 23 points during the postseason. Brady Drogosh (949 yards/9 TDs passing) directs a balanced attack.
Division 3
Muskegon (9-1) vs. DeWitt (10-0) at Lansing Catholic
These two have met in the playoffs two of the last three seasons, and Muskegon won the 2019 Semifinal matchup 28-21. Senior Amari Crowley is the Big Reds’ latest standout quarterback; he’s thrown for 1,008 yards and 12 touchdowns and run for 884 yards and 13 scores. DeWitt also has a playmaking QB, with Tyler Holtz throwing for 2,109 yards and 31 scores – and equally important will be a defense that gives up only 157 total yards per game. The Panthers also must stop running back Jacarri Kitchen, who averages 11.3 yards per carry and has 1,098 total over 10 games.
River Rouge (8-1) at Chelsea (10-0)
Reigning Division 3 champion River Rouge is a win away from what would be a third championship game appearance in six seasons, and with quarterback Mareyohn Hrabowski again one of the toughest to stop in any division. Chelsea is playing in a Semifinal for the third-straight season and also hoping to make the Finals for the third time in six seasons. The Bulldogs also have enjoyed one of the state’s top game changers, receiver Joe Taylor, who has caught 14 touchdowns passes, run for two scores and returned a kickoff for one more.
Division 4
Cadillac (7-2) at Edwardsburg (9-0)
The Eddies are running for their third championship game appearance in four seasons, and as always running for a ton with 3,098 yards in only eight games on the field (the ninth was a forfeit). They’re averaging 55 points per game with their top two rushers, Jackson Hoover and Brett Allen, both averaging at least 14 yards per carry. Cadillac is making its first appearance in the Semifinals and following the same strategy. The Vikings have run for 2,507 yards, with top rusher Aden Gurden gaining 878 on 8.4 per carry.
Detroit Country Day (7-2) vs. Williamston (9-1) at Okemos
Reigning Division 4 runner-up Country Day is playing to reach its third championship game in five seasons. The Yellowjackets were able to get only four games in during the regular season but have played the same number during the playoffs and downed unbeaten North Branch last week. Jacob Yarberry is a playmaker to watch on both sides of the field. The Hornets have been on the verge as well with this their second Semifinal in three seasons. Williamston’s attack is tough on both fronts; quarterback Luke Mahaney guides an offense that has nearly equal yardage and touchdowns rushing and passing.
Division 5
Freeland (9-1) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (9-0)
The Cougars claimed the Division 4 title last season, their third in four years, and are riding a 21-game winning streak. They returned last week with their highest-scoring performance since 2018, a 58-7 win over Muskegon Oakridge. Freeland’s 14th-straight winning season has landed the Falcons in their first Semifinal since 1998. Four players have scored at least six touchdowns; leading rusher Jacob Kundinger (519 yards) is one of three with a team-best eight touchdowns.
Lansing Catholic (8-2) at Frankenmuth (10-0)
The Eagles are attempting to reach the Finals for the first time, but standing in the way is reigning Division 5 champion Lansing Catholic. Junior Alex Watters stepped in at quarterback last week and finished with 153 yards rushing with a touchdown and 73 yards and a score passing. Frankenmuth will be playing in its third Semifinal in five seasons, this time paced by a running attack averaging 286 yards per game. Cole Lindow is the top ground gainer with 907 yards, plus 12 scores, with quarterback Davin Reif adding more than 800 yards rushing and throwing.
Division 6
Grayling (7-3) at Montague (10-0)
After winning Division 6 in 2018, the Wildcats missed a return trip to the Finals by a one-point Semifinal loss last fall. Quarterback Drew Collins is leading the return attempt, topping the team in rushing with 638 yards (with 16 touchdowns) while passing for 1,640 yards and 20 scores. After two straight 3-6 seasons, Grayling has reached its first Semifinal with a six-game winning streak. David Millikin is averaging 10.1 yards per carry and 151 per game, with 29 rushing touchdowns total.
Constantine (9-1) at Clinton (9-1)
Clinton will be playing in its first Semifinal since 2015 after winning its last two playoff games, over unbeaten opponents, by a combined four points. Constantine has reached nine wins and the Semifinals both for the first time since 2012. The Falcons are averaging an obliterating 524 yards and 7.5 touchdowns on the ground per game.
Division 7
Traverse City St. Francis (8-2) at Cass City (10-0)
Cass City earned home field for its Semifinal with a road win last week over undefeated Ithaca. This will be the second-straight appearance in this round for the Red Hawks, who average 339 rushing yards per game behind backs Alex Perry (897 yards/13 TDs) and Jordan Mester (847/11 TDs). St. Francis also dominates in the ground game, averaging 215 rush yards per game led by Owen Mueller (523 yards/5 TDs) among a large group of contributing backs.
Schoolcraft (9-1) at New Lothrop (9-0)
The Hornets will be playing in their third Semifinal in six seasons and are looking to win their second Division 7 title in three seasons. No opponent has scored more than 16 points against them, which works well with an offense scoring 50 points per game. Quarterback Cam Orr (1,721 yards/24 TDs passing, 569 yards/16 TDs rushing) is among standouts. Schoolcraft turned its third-straight Regional Finals run into its first Semifinal since 2001. Alex Thole has thrown for 2,288 yards and 32 touchdowns. The Eagles downed reigning Division 7 runner-up Jackson Lumen Christi 29-22 last week and handed Division 6 semifinalist Constantine its only loss, in the season opener.
Division 8
Ubly (8-2) at Johannesburg-Lewiston (10-0)
Johannesburg-Lewiston also earned a home Semifinal after a Regional Final road trip, edging Iron Mountain 7-6 last week at the Superior Dome. Sheldon Huff paces another dominating running attack, averaging 9.3 yards per carry for 1,295 total and 16 touchdowns on the ground. This will be the Cardinals’ first Semifinal since 1998, but Ubly’s second straight and third in four seasons. The Bearcats missed Ford Field in 2019 with a one-point loss to Beal City.
NOTE: Centreville (10-0) advanced to the Division 8 Final after Clarkston Everest Collegiate had to withdraw from the playoffs this week.
PHOTO: Williamston, here during a 45-7 win over Ionia in Week 7, is back in the Semifinals this weekend for the second time in three seasons. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)