Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Montague Follows QB's Unstoppable Lead

By Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com

January 22, 2021

DETROIT – Montague football coach Patrick Collins was well prepared Friday night. 

After a week of getting emotional when asked what it would be like coaching his son, Drew, for the final time in the MHSAA Division 6 Final, he told himself that he wouldn’t cry again if asked the question after the game. 

He accomplished that feat, making him perfect on the night. 

The Collins family will be celebrating their final game together forever, as they claimed Montague’s third Finals title with a 40-14 victory over Clinton at Ford Field. 

“You can’t finish any better than that,” said Patrick Collins, who has been at the helm for all three Montague titles. “How does it get any better? It’s been a phenomenal run. Just pinch me, man. I just can’t believe it. I think all the coaches feel like (the players are) all our sons. We treat them all the same. … It’s special, because we’re tight. There’s a lot of love and a lot of guys playing for each other.” 

While the postgame press conference was tear free, the Montague sideline was not as the clock ticked down in the final quarter. A program that had come agonizingly close in each of the past two years – losing in the Final in 2018 and losing a thriller of a Semifinal in 2019 – had broken through for the first time since winning back-to-back titles in 2008 and 2009. 

“Everybody on this football team, coaches, players, trainers – everybody on this football team loves high school football,” said Drew Collins, the Montague senior quarterback who accounted for five touchdowns on the night. “I love high school football. I love these coaches. I love my friends on the team. I love everybody on the team. I love the community. It’s bittersweet when you win a state championship when you’re a senior because it’s all over.” 

Drew Collins, who was The Associated Press Division 5-6 Player of the Year, made the most of his final game in a Montague uniform, throwing for 244 yards and three touchdowns on 15-of-19 passing. He also rushed for 51 yards and two scores.  

That led an offensive attack which put up 390 total yards and scored on all but two of its possessions – one of which ended on downs late in the fourth quarter as the Wildcats were attempting to run out the clock. 

“I just think they can do it all,” Clinton coach Jeremy Fielder said. “When you look at their team, look at what they have up front, look at the athletes they have in space, then you put a quarterback on that team, and you put a very experienced team out there, as well. That’s a lot to deal with. They’re a great football team, and I give them a lot of credit; they’re a great program.” 

All three of Collins’ touchdown passes went to Sam Smith (nine, 44 and 26 yards), who had five receptions for 96 yards total. Tugg Nichols added five catches of his own for 89 yards, while Dylan Everett had 52 yards and a touchdown on nine carries. 

While Montague’s dynamic offense put on a show, it was the defense’s second-half performance that allowed the Wildcats to pull away. Clinton (10-2) trailed 19-14 at the half but had put together a pair of 80-yard drives. The first finished with an eight-yard George Ames run, and was fueled by a long Brayden Randolph run. The other was a clock-killing masterpiece fullhouse backfields are known for and was closed out with a two-yard Bradyn Lehman run. 

Each of those drives followed a Montague drive that ended with a touchdown pass from Collins to Smith. The Wildcats took the halftime lead with Everett’s two-yard touchdown run. 

Clinton’s first two drives of the second half, however, ended with turnovers – the first on downs, and the second an interception by Montague’s Trey Mikkelsen. The Wildcats turned both turnovers into touchdowns – Collins’ third TD pass to Smith, and a nine-yard Collins TD rush – and started to put the game away. Collins’ final touchdown run of the game, a 23-yarder in the fourth quarter, erased any doubt. 

“I thought the coaches did a great job – our staff is phenomenal,” Patrick Collins said. “We did some adjustments. But really, this team is run by the players, and it starts with the seniors. Their determination is what makes a difference. It was about their heart coming out in the second half and finding the energy to stack up to a great Clinton team, honestly. That Clinton team can bring it, and they brought it today.” 

Randolph led the way for Clinton in his final game, rushing for 194 yards on 23 carries. He also had eight tackles, while Lehman led the Clinton defense with nine tackles, and Nik Shadley had six.  

“We’re fortunate, we have about 15 or 16 seniors, and at our level, you win with seniors,” Fielder said. “We were able to make some key plays at some key times, and I think it was really big for us, too, when we got shut down (for the statewide pause), we had that senior leadership. We had a group of seniors who had won a wrestling state championship together last year, so they’ve been here before. As a coach, you’re looking at these guys in the huddle, and you’re looking at these guys on the sidelines, you know you’re in pretty good shape. We just ran into a team that was outstanding.” 

Izac Jarka and Colton Blankstrom each had eight tackles to lead the Montague defense, while Mikkelsen and Alex Waruszewski each had seven. 

Click for the full box score.

PHOTOS: (Top) Montague celebrates its first Football Finals championship Saturday since 2009. (Middle) The Wildcats’ Samuel Smith breaks through an opening as Clinton’s Bradyn Lehman (6) and others close in. (Click for more from Hockey Weekly Action Photos.)