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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Niles Brandywine football

1st & Goal: 2021 Week 1 in Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

August 30, 2021

Michigan high school football has been ripe for a fresh start after a COVID-rattled 2020 (and into 2021) season. 

Win or lose this past weekend, nearly 600 varsity football teams across the state should continue to have plenty to look forward to this fall – and of course, some have a few more reasons for early excitement.

Four of last season's champions fell, which meant big headlines for Rochester Adams, Edwardsburg, Jackson Lumen Christi and Niles Brandywine. Three showcase events further fed anticipation as top teams gave us first looks at what we can expect over the next three months. 

Below is our look back at Week 1 and some of the results that could matter most as we start another 14-week championship chase. 

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Grand Blanc 40 East Lansing 34 The premier matchup of the Vehicle City Gridiron Classic pitted two of the highest-regarded teams in the state, and didn’t disappoint. The Bobcats emerged with Elijah Jackson-Anderson and kicker Dylan Hertzberg providing plenty of offense – Hertzberg had four field goals – while in defeat Brevin Jackson (396) and receiver Mason Woods (212) set Trojans single-game school records for passing and receiving yardage, respectively. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Watch list Millington 42, Cass City 19 The Cardinals are carrying the longest current streak of winning seasons (32) in the state, but doubling up a Cass City team that came within two points of making last season’s Division 7 championship game has to be one of Millington’s best opening wins during that streak.

Remember this one Hemlock 33, Breckenridge 8 Hemlock’s Huskies are looking to take another step after three-straight eight-win seasons and only one loss a year ago, and downing Breckenridge’s Huskies in this fashion is a notable.  

More shoutouts Freeland 24, Clare 14 The Falcons enjoyed another great start after making the Semifinals last season, against a Clare team that lost only in the playoffs. Saginaw Nouvel 21, Sandusky 6 The Panthers also enjoyed a solid start against a Sandusky team coming off a one-loss season.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 45, Detroit Catholic Central 20 This Xenith Prep Kick Off Classic matchup featured two are sure to be counted among Division 1 title contenders in two months, and Chippewa Valley’s start is especially impressive coming off a 3-4 finish a year ago. Cephus Harris scored four touchdowns as one of many standouts for the Big Reds, while DCC QB Declan Byle made some big-play throws that surely will have defenses on notice. Click for more from the Macomb Daily.

Watch list Rochester Adams 35, West Bloomfield 17 The memory of last season’s 3-4 finish for Adams should be drifting away after the Highlanders downed the reigning Division 1 champion, avenging a 37-0 defeat and breaking a four-game losing streak against the Lakers.

Remember this one Clarkston 29, Davison 26 Both lost just once last season – Davison in the Division 1 championship game and Clarkston in a District Semifinal – and it would hardly be shocking to see them meet up again in November. This time, Davison led at halftime and Clarkston came back and then held off a late rally.

More shoutouts Dearborn Fordson 38, Canton 23 The Tractors also earned an impressive win over a team that lost just once last season – and Antonio Gates Jr. was just fun to watch with two touchdown catches and two interceptions. Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 35, Macomb Dakota 21 Two traditional powers, another big-time opener – and this one saw Rice take a 21-0 lead, Dakota tie it in the fourth quarter and Rice then pull away.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER DeWitt 47, Traverse City Central 27 With a star quarterback and two college-bound receivers back from last season’s Division 3 championship team, DeWitt’s offense wasn’t going to sneak up on anyone. But the Panthers’ playmakers were among the most impressive of Battle at the Big House performers as quarterback Tyler Holtz connected with three receivers for six touchdown passes total, including four to Bryce Kurncz. Central had given up only 18.7 points per game last season in reaching the Division 2 Semifinals. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Williamston 43, Croswell-Lexington 20 The Hornets reached the Division 4 Semifinals last season, and they rolled out of the gate again with this road win over a Croswell-Lexington team that lost to only one opponent (twice) in 2020.

Remember this one Charlotte 49, Olivet 40 Olivet has been the more football successful of these neighbors for going on two decades, and they only started playing each other last season for the first time at least in recent history. But Charlotte won’t be forgetting this one any time soon after winning two games a year ago and falling to the Eagles 28-14 in that 2020 meeting.

More shoutouts Grand Ledge 36, Coldwater 14 The Comets also may have set the stage for a big season with a strong road win against a Coldwater program that regularly is among contenders in its league. Lansing Eastern 36, Flint Hamady 0 The Quakers didn’t play at all last season, and their two wins in 2019 were also their only two over a five-season stretch. But Eastern came out big against a Hamady team that hasn’t finished less than .500 since 2014.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Cadillac 18, Reed City 14 The reigning Division 4 runner-up Vikings should make a run at being the top team from the northern Lower Peninsula, and this victory should be a pretty strong catalyst with Traverse City West and Central looming in league play. Cadillac held the Coyotes scoreless over the second half, and the defeat was only the fifth for Reed City during the regular season over the last seven years. Click for more from the Cadillac News.

Watch list East Jordan 36, Johannesburg-Lewiston 12 The Red Devils are seeking their first winning season since 2016 and have come close over the last two. Defeating the Cardinals is an incredible way to start again as Johannesburg-Lewiston reached the Division 8 Semifinals last season.

Remember this one Traverse City West 35, Midland 28 The Titans won’t be forgetting an impressive comeback including a go-ahead 82-yard punt return touchdown at U-M.

More shoutouts Maple City Glen Lake 35, Houghton Lake 6 Both had winning records and close playoff defeats to end last season, and the Lakers’ offense looks to be humming again. Lake City 30, Beaverton 21 The Trojans had a tough go in 2020, finishing just 2-5 after three winning seasons in a row, but they could be on the move again after edging a Beaverton team coming off a fifth-straight winning campaign.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Jackson Lumen Christi 27, New Lothrop 14 The southeastern section of the Lower Peninsula was loaded with notable finishes, but Lumen Christi toppling the reigning Division 7 champion made the biggest statewide wave. The Titans broke away for the game’s final two scores and stopped a Hornets offense that scored at least 36 points per game in going 11-0 last fall. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

Watch list Ottawa Lake Whiteford 52, Blissfield 21 Whiteford always is in the title mix in the Tri-County Conference, and downing the reigning Lenawee County Athletic Association champ is a great way to prep for another run.

Remember this one Hudson 59, Ithaca 14 Last year’s matchup between the programs owning the longest winning streaks in MHSAA history wasn’t played due to the late season start. But Hudson stormed back to even the recent series after losing to Ithaca in 2019 – a major win as the Tigers go for their first winning season since 2017.

More shoutouts Napoleon 27, Brooklyn Columbia Central 14 The Pirates already have equaled last season’s win total, and in the process broke a five-game opening-night losing streak against the Golden Eagles. Saline 34, Hudsonville 30 The Hornets stopped Hudsonville just short of the goal line on the final play at Michigan Stadium.  

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Niles Brandywine 38, Centreville 32 The Bobcats have been a playoff team for most of the last decade and went 9-1 in 2019. This opening win certainly could spur more big things this fall. Centreville gave up 29 points total in going 11-0 and winning the Division 8 championship last season. Click for more from the Niles Daily Star.

Watch list Edwardsburg 38, Montague 0 Few have slowed down the Eddies’ offense over the last eight years – they scored more than 400 points in all of them – and this seems a strong indicator that things will continue along that track. The defense also deserves plenty of credit for shutting out the reigning Division 6 champ.  

Remember this one Stevensville Lakeshore 26, Portage Central 22 The season is just getting started, but a Lakeshore go-ahead touchdown with 10 minutes to play could mean a lot in the final Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference standings.

More shoutouts Battle Creek Central 12, Portage Northern 6 This is a huge start for the Bearcats. Northern had won the last seven matchups between the two, including last season’s by 40, and went undefeated in league play in 2020 although the SMAC didn’t award a champion because of the abbreviated regular season. Cassopolis 20, Schoolcraft 19 After four straight double-digit win seasons, the Rangers fell back to 2-5 last fall. But defeating a Schoolcraft team coming off a Division 7 Semifinals trip may have begun a fast rebound.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Iron Mountain 14, Negaunee 12 These Western Peninsula Athletic Conference rivals had to take a year off from their annual game because of the shortened 2020 season, but they continued what’s become a series of close finishes – this the third straight decided by three points or fewer. Iron Mountain has won all three, which in this case again means a significant start to the Copper division season. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Gladstone 26, Calumet 20 (OT) The Braves won their season opener for the fifth year in a row, and the timing of this big victory couldn’t be better – four straight league games are up next.

Remember this one Ishpeming 22, Manistique 6 The Hematites didn’t play a game last season, but they returned with a victory by the identical score of their 2019 opener against Manistique.

More shoutouts Bark River-Harris 28, Gwinn 6 Bark River-Harris closed last season winning five of its last six and making a Division 8 District Final, and they may be back in stride. Ishpeming Westwood 52, Houghton 8 The Patriots extended their winning streak against Houghton to four, setting up this week’s league showdown with the Mountaineers.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Grand Rapids Catholic Central 43, Lapeer 21 The reigning Division 5 champion opened the season for the whole state with a noon Thursday kickoff at the Battle at the Big House, and looked like they’d just left Ford Field in January. QB Joey Silveri threw for two scores and ran for two more, and Nolan Ziegler caught three touchdown passes. Click for more from FOX 17.

Watch List Zeeland West 44, East Grand Rapids 27 The Dux have won eight straight season openers and now have an open week before beginning play in what might be the toughest league in the state this season, the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green.

Remember this one Caledonia 41, Holt 14 The Rams are expected to be one of the Lansing area’s best this fall – which means this could turn out to be an even more impressive start for Caledonia.

More shoutouts Muskegon Mona Shores 56, Lowell 14 The Sailors opened their pursuit of a third-straight Division 2 championship with a new quarterback but same offensive output. Ravenna 21, Beal City 20 The Bulldogs held on as the Aggies scored 13 fourth-quarter points.

8-Player

HEADLINER Marion 42, Merrill 12 The Eagles quietly have strung together five winning seasons in a row and made an impression in their first game since last season’s Division 2 Semifinal loss to eventual champion Powers North Central. Merrill was one of the best 8-player Division 1 teams in its first season playing the format in 2020. Click for more from the Cadillac News.

Watch list Pickford 36, Gaylord St. Mary 6 One game is merely that, but if history holds this would seem to indicate Pickford is a team to watch again in Division 1.

Remember this one Genesee 56, Mayville 52 The Wolves ended last season with a 48-20 playoff-opening loss to Mayville.

More shoutouts Blanchard Montabella 54, Bellevue 18 The Mustangs made a late move to 8-player this offseason and are three students too large to qualify for the playoffs – but their 8P debut will be remembered regardless if they continue to rebound from last year’s 1-5 finish in 11-player. Rogers City 14, Brethren 8 The Hurons won five games total over their last two seasons of 11-player, but debuted in 8-player with a win over a solid Brethren program coming off a third-straight finish at .500 or better.

PHOTOS: (Top) Niles Brandywine’s Ivory McCullough works to break the grasp of Centreville’s Xander Frederick during Thursday’s win. (Middle) Plainwell won its 120th meeting with Otsego, 21-6. (Below) Alpena's Joseph Blewett (21) and Mason Mumford (15) aren't able to get to Marquette's Justin Jurmu in time as Jurmu pulls in a pass from quarterback Austin Ridl to score their team’s first touchdown Thursday. (Top photo by Michael Caterina/South Bend Tribune, middle by Gary Shook, and below by Cara Kamps.)