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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Haslett/Okemos football

1st & Goal: 2021 Week 2 in Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 6, 2021

From Niles to Napoleon to Petoskey, teams that frequently were stopped in their tracks a year ago have successfully made that first cut into the open over the first two weeks of the 2021 season.

Others like Detroit Cass Tech and Martin Luther King have found full stride – their breakaways coming over the weekend against a pair of annual contenders from the opposite side of the Lower Peninsula and right on time to set up potentially the most high-powered matchup of this regular season.

Below is a glance at especially eye-catching scores and some of the stories behind them from Week 2.   

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Bad Axe 42, Cass City 0 The game that couldn’t be played last season was finally played last week, and Bad Axe sent a statement in the Greater Thumb Conference West. Both Bad Axe (2-0) and Cass City (0-2) had finished unbeaten in the league last season, but their early-season game had been canceled. The Hatchets won this matchup for the first time since 2014, ripping 50 and 60-yard touchdown runs on the way. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.

Watch list Croswell-Lexington 28, North Branch 7 The Pioneers’ lost last season only twice, both times to eventual Blue Water Area Conference and District champion North Branch. Circle Croswell-Lexington’s Week 5 against Richmond as a potential BWAC title decider.

Remember this one Standish-Sterling 27, Ithaca 20 While last week’s big win over Pinconning was worth celebrating too, this week’s Panthers victory over Ithaca could be much more telling of a potential turnaround. Standish-Sterling (2-0) is seeking its first winning season since 2013; its only victory last season came by forfeit.

More shoutouts Marlette 36, Sandusky 12 The Red Raiders (1-1) defeated reigning GTC East champion Sandusky for the first time since 2013. Grand Blanc 38, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 34 The Bobcats moved to 2-0 thanks to Hunter Ames’ 74-yard go-ahead touchdown toss to Nasir Carson with 30 seconds to play.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Detroit Martin Luther King 40, Muskegon Mona Shores 19 With their first of three recent meetings in the 2019 Division 2 Final, these two have arguably the best cross-state series running. The Sailors (1-1) won the first two matchups and had won 19 straight including the last two Division 2 titles. King (1-1) couldn’t have earned a better bounce-back after falling in its opener on a game-ending touchdown pass. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Watch list Detroit Cass Tech 49, Muskegon 14 Undefeated Cass Tech’s dominating performance on the road against one of the top programs in the state just added to the anticipation of this week’s matchup with King.

Remember this one Warren De La Salle 38, River Rouge 29 Both had to scramble after losing Week 2 opponents, and the result was a high-caliber matchup between two teams that ended at Ford Field last season.

More shoutouts Detroit Catholic Central 35, Davison 14 The Shamrocks quickly bounced back from their Week 1 loss to Chippewa Valley with a solid win over a Davison team that while 0-2 has to be one of the best teams in Michigan still looking for a first win. Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 17, Hudsonville 15 The Eaglets are 2-0 with those wins by a combined seven points against strong opponents; consider Hudsonville another of the best 0-2 teams in the state after two defeats by a combined six points against top competition.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Portland 20, DeWitt 17 Keeping in mind that Portland played for the Division 5 championship just three seasons ago and had split games the last two seasons with the Panthers (1-1), this one still reverberated across the state. That’s mostly because of how the Raiders pulled it off. First, Portland (2-0) stopped a veteran DeWitt offense that averaged 45 points per game last year and scored 47 in its season opener. Then came the game-winning score with 22 seconds to play. Click for more from the Ionia Sentinel-Standard.

Watch list Hartland 19, Novi 7 The Eagles are seeking their first winning season since 2015 and are off to a 2-0 start for the second season in a row. They just missed getting back over the hump last year finishing 3-4 with two close losses at the end.

Remember this one Corunna 20, Hemlock 13 The Cavaliers (1-1) won more games last season than the previous two combined in going 5-4. If they take another step, this could be remembered as the win that put them back on the right track. Jaden Edington’s touchdown run with 10:26 left was the game-winner.  

More shoutouts Hastings 38, Battle Creek Harper Creek 35 The reigning Interstate 8 Athletic Conference champ Saxons (2-0) survived a close one as they embarked on their repeat quest. Lansing Catholic 30, Williamston 21 Portland is going to get all the buzz coming out of this week, but the Cougars also showed against a top-tier program that they’ll be in the thick of the Capital Area Activities Conference White race as well.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Kingsley 48, Maple City Glen Lake 0 The Stags (2-0) are going to be a team we all watch this season. They’ve now won 22 of their last 23 on the field, and Glen Lake (1-1) hadn’t taken a loss of this magnitude since the teams’ 2019 meeting (after which the Lakers bounced back to finish Division 6 runner-up). League play starts next week for both, and you can already circle Kingsley vs. Traverse City St. Francis in Week 9 among the most intriguing regular-season finales statewide. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Petoskey 44, Escanaba 27 The Northmen (2-0) haven’t won more than two games in a season since 2018, but that’s almost assured with this especially impressive as Escanaba (1-1) has been one of the Upper Peninsula’s best again over the last half-decade.

Remember this one Boyne City 27, Charlevoix 8 The Ramblers (2-0) had dropped two straight to the Red Rayders, who suffered their first regular-season loss since Week 8 of 2019.

More shoutouts Traverse City Central 60, Marquette 28 The Trojans (1-1) bounced back from an opening loss to DeWitt with their seventh-straight win over Marquette (1-1). Elk Rapids 48, Johannesburg-Lewiston 28 Even with the Cardinals (0-2) off to a rare slow start, this provided plenty of reason to celebrate after Elk Rapids won once last season.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Hudson 22, Erie Mason 0 The Tigers raised some eyes with an opening-night win over Ithaca, and many more will be watching now that they’ve shut out the reigning Tri-County Conference champion as well. They are 2-0 for the first time since 2017, and they have another opportunity to make some noise this week when they start the Lenawee County Athletic Association schedule against last season’s Division 6 runner-up Clinton. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Watch list Napoleon 54, East Jackson 0 The Pirates are 2-0 for the first time since 2002, and already have doubled their victory total from 2020.

Remember this one Ottawa Lake Whiteford 34, Ida 14 In these teams’ first meeting since 1976, Whiteford earned its first win over Ida since 1968 according to Michigan-football.com.

More shoutouts Reading 30, Grass Lake 12 The Rangers’ defense has been especially impressive so far, following up a shutout by giving up only 12 points to a Warriors team that hasn’t finishing below .500 since 2001. Milan 27, New Boston Huron 19 These two tied for second in the Huron League last season behind Riverview. This season’s race is only getting started, of course, and Huron (1-1) gets the undefeated Pirates this week while Milan has defeated opponents that went a combined 16-3 in 2020.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Niles 26, Buchanan 0 Former Three Rivers coach Scott Shaw – who led that program to the 2003 Division 4 title – has made Niles another team on the rise in his first season. The Vikings won one game a year ago, two the season before and no more than three since 2014. But Niles followed up an opening-night victory over Sturgis with this shutout of the Bucks, who finished 8-1 in 2020. Click for more from the South Bend Tribune.

Watch list Niles Brandywine 30, Cassopolis 24 After opening with a win over reigning Division 8 champ Centreville, Brandywine moved to 2-0 against a Rangers team (1-1) looking to bounce back from a rare off year.

Remember this one Battle Creek Lakeview 42, Portage Northern 21 The Spartans (2-0) also are off to a strong start, including this win over the team that would’ve had a claim to the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference title if one had been awarded during the abbreviated 2020 season. Lakeview takes on River Rouge this week – an excellent test – and regardless of the result should be a contender in the SMAC when it returns to league play Week 4.

More shoutouts Centreville 28, Schoolcraft 7 The Bulldogs (1-1) rebounded from that Brandywine defeat by handing the second this fall to last season Division 7 semifinalist Schoolcraft. Stevensville Lakeshore 41, Kalamazoo United 19 Ryan Korfmacher set a Lakeshore passing record with 385 yards as his team moved to 2-0.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Ishpeming Westwood 28, Iron Mountain 0 The Patriots (2-0) already look like the team to beat in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper, and running back Zack Carlson just missed getting to 10 touchdowns before Labor Day. And don’t forget the defense, which handed the Mountaineers (1-1) their first shutout since 2018. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Negaunee 35, Calumet 21 The Miners (1-1), who lost by two Week 1 to Iron Mountain, are now the main candidates standing in the way of a Westwood league title – although Calumet (0-2) still has a say as well and will face Westwood this week.

Remember this one Bark River-Harris 53, West Iron County 6 The Broncos (2-0) already look very good in the West-PAC Iron title race at 2-0 with two games to play and this big win over a Wykons team coming off an undefeated 2020 regular season.

More shoutouts Hancock 20, Ishpeming 12 The Bulldogs (1-1) bounced back nicely from an opening-night loss, while handing Ishpeming (1-1) its first of the fall. Kingsford 21, Gladstone 6 The Flivvers (2-0) haven’t lost in this series since 1998 and this fall have given up only 12 points total.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Muskegon Oakridge 32, Whitehall 19 Although reigning champ Montague bounced back big from its Week 1 loss, this early matchup very well could have a lot to say in the West Michigan Conference race before it’s over. Oakridge (2-0) got up by 20 during the third quarter and held on the rest of the way. The Eagles see Montague in Week 4, and Whitehall (1-1) gets the Wildcats in Week 8. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.  

Watch list Spring Lake 56, Zeeland East 21 Spring Lake had to wait an extra week to get started, taking a forfeit win in Week 1. But the Lakers were the talk of West Michigan once they finally got on the field, impressing against one of the region’s annual powers.  

Remember this one Rockford 35, Cedar Springs 6 This was a great sign for the Rams heading into Ottawa-Kent Conference Red play, especially defensively, as Cedar Springs is likely again to make some noise in the Gold.

More shoutouts Allendale 14, Hopkins 0 The Falcons head into O-K Blue play coming off a shutout of last season’s Silver champion. East Grand Rapids 30, Grand Rapids South Christian 21 The Pioneers (1-1) rebounded from an opening loss to run their winning streak over the Sailors to five with the O-K White schedule set to begin.

8-Player

HEADLINER Deckerville 50, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 26 The Eagles also had to wait an extra week to get rolling, but it didn’t take long for them to catch up against an Irish team that reached the Division 2 Regional Finals last season. Both should contend in North Central Thumb League divisions, Deckerville after finishing third in the Stars last season and Sacred Heart coming off a runner-up run in the Stripes.

Watch list Mio 12, Hillman 0 The Thunderbolts went from 9-2 in 2019 to 0-6 in 2020, but at 2-0 they’re headed back up in a hurry. They have yet to give up a point.

Remember this one Rudyard 63, Cedarville 6 The Bulldogs (2-0) had lost all eight games to Cedarville since moving to 8-player football in 2016, and they also upped their scoring margin this fall to a combined 115-6.

More shoutouts Lake Linden-Hubbell 60, Rapid River 6 The Lakes (2-0) are finding their footing in 8-player and have outscored their first two opponents of the season by a combined 102-14. Pellston 36, Hale 12 After trailing at the half, Pellston (2-0) outscored Hale 28-0 during the second to run its regular-season winning streak to 10.

PHOTOS: (Top) Haslett drives on Okemos during Thursday's 47-0 win. (Middle) Detroit Catholic Central's Declan Byle unloads a pass as Davison defenders close in. (Below) Negaunee quarterback Gerald Johnson keeps the ball but is tackled by Calumet's Hans Killunen. (Photos by John Johnson, Terry Lyons and Cara Kamps, respectively.)