Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

1st & Goal: 2021 Week 3 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 9, 2021

Every week of the football regular season we learn something more about who we might be watching when playoffs roll around in November.

And we should know quite a bit once we’ve reached the end of Week 3 this weekend.

League play will have begun in almost every conference across the state, and with some particularly intriguing matchups of possible state contenders today and Saturday – a few of which we detail below.

Once again, more than 150 games will be viewable live on MHSAA.tv, with Bally Sports Detroit broadcasting Friday's Detroit Cass Tech/Detroit Martin Luther King matchup on its PLUS cable channel and State Champs! Sports Network streaming live Saturday's Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood/Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes matchup. See the full schedule from the MHSAA Score Center.

Bay & Thumb

Grand Blanc (2-0) at Midland Dow (2-0)

Add next week’s Davison game as well, and only a few statewide can match the strength of Grand Blanc’s opening schedule, which has included wins over East Lansing and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central so far. Last season’s game against Dow wasn’t played because of the late start to the regular season, but the two previous matchups were both Grand Blanc wins – but decided by a combined five points. Dow followed an impressive opening win over Fenton with a shutout of Flint Carman-Ainsworth last week, and moving to 3-0 against the Division 1 Bobcats would be put the Chargers firmly on the Division 2 radar.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Harrison (2-0) at Gladwin (2-0), Millington (2-0) at Hemlock (1-1), Ortonville Brandon (2-0) at Lake Fenton (2-0), Fraser (2-0) at Port Huron Northern (2-0).

Greater Detroit

Detroit Cass Tech (2-0) at Detroit Martin Luther King (1-1)

Simply put, this could end up as the premier game statewide this regular season. Both went to Muskegon County last weekend and came back with big wins over annual title contenders, King 40-19 over two-time reigning Division 2 champion Muskegon Mona Shores and Cass Tech 49-14 over a Muskegon program coming off its fifth straight Semifinals appearance with four consecutive Finals also during that run. High-profile talent will be everywhere, but of course many eyes will be on the quarterbacks – King’s Dante Moore and Cass Tech’s Leeshaun Mumpfield have been making plenty of headlines already. The Technicians won both meetings last season as the teams have taken turns defeating (or on those few occasions with multiple matchups sweeping) their top rival over the last seven seasons.      

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Belleville (2-0) at Livonia Churchill (2-0), Romeo (2-0) at Macomb Dakota (1-1), Harper Woods (2-0) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (2-0), Detroit Loyola (2-0) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (2-0).

Mid-Michigan

East Lansing (1-1) at DeWitt (1-1)

This has been viewed as the premier matchup in the Lansing area going back a few seasons – although they didn’t play each other last year because of the late start – and East Lansing in Division 2 and DeWitt as reigning champion in Division 3 both have major postseason aspirations again. But first things first, and the winner tonight will take a notable step forward in what’s shaping up to be the strongest Capital Area Activities Conference Blue in a while. The Trojans lost by six in their high-scoring opener to Grand Blanc (see above) and followed with a 33-7 win last week over a Fenton team that lost only once in 2020. The Panthers are coming off a 20-17 last-minute loss at Portland – but DeWitt’s offense is capable of supercharging again like when it scored 47 against Traverse City Central in Week 1.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Hartland (2-0) at Brighton (1-1), Northville (1-1) at Howell (2-0), Williamston (1-1) at Mason (1-1), Battle Creek Central (1-1) at Lansing Everett (2-0).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Traverse City West (2-0) at Cadillac (2-0)

West vs. Traverse City Central has long been viewed as “The Game” in the Big North Conference, but Cadillac reaching last season’s Division 4 Final has certainly added an argument or two – and it will only get stronger if the Vikings can defeat the Titans tonight for the first time since 2014. Both opened with notable victories – Cadillac over Reed City and West over Midland – and followed up with good wins in Week 2. West surely won’t be looking past this week even with its annual rivalry matchup with Central coming up next, while Cadillac’s meeting with Central isn’t until Week 6. But the winner tonight will have some serious work already accomplished in the league title race when it meets the reigning champ Trojans.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Maple City Glen Lake (1-1) at Boyne City (2-0), Mancelona (2-0) at Elk Rapids (1-1), Lake City (2-0) at Manton (2-0), Oscoda (2-0) at Frankfort (1-1).

Southeast & Border

Hudson (2-0) at Clinton (2-0)

With wins over annual state power Ithaca and reigning Tri-County Conference champ Erie Mason, Hudson has been one of the early stories of the 2021 season. The story has a chance to get even better this week as the Tigers take on reigning Division 6 runner-up Clinton in the Lenawee County Athletic Association opener. With a combined 111 points over its first two games, Clinton’s offense quickly has found its usual high-powered stride but will have an interesting test against a Hudson defense that’s given up just 14 points, shut out Mason and was similarly tough much of last year minus its season-ending playoff defeat.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Adrian Madison (2-0) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (2-0), Saline (2-0) at Ypsilanti Lincoln (1-1), Carleton Airport (1-1) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (2-0), Union City (1-1) at Jonesville (2-0).

Southwest Corridor

River Rouge (1-1) at Battle Creek Lakeview (2-0)

This is another great test for two teams that have had plenty of success the last two seasons. River Rouge goes back on the road after falling 38-29 in a late-added matchup with reigning Division 2 runner-up Warren De La Salle Collegiate. Lakeview looks early like a player in the competitive Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference, and facing the reigning Division 3 runner-up will only prepare the Spartans more. The Panthers, playing as independents, have trips to Ohio and back west to Portage Northern lined up later this regular season as they look to build for a possible third-straight trip to the Finals.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Edwardsburg (2-0) at Niles (2-0), Portage Northern (0-2) at St. Joseph (2-0), Saugatuck (1-1) at Niles Brandywine (2-2), Comstock (2-0) at Cassopolis (1-1).

Upper Peninsula

Kingsley (2-0) at Sault Ste. Marie (2-0)

Sault Ste. Marie found a new home last season in the Northern Michigan Football League, playing in the Legends division and going 3-1 in league play with that lone defeat 40-6 to Kingsley. They welcome the Stags for the rematch having yet to surrender a point with shutouts of St. Ignace and Tawas so far. Kingsley similarly has given up just eight points, in its opener to McBain, before shutting out Glen Lake last week. But the key stat might be that the Stags haven’t been held under 36 points in a game since a 2019 Semifinal loss to eventual Division 5 champion Lansing Catholic.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Marquette (1-1) at Escanaba (1-1), Menominee (2-0) at Gladstone (1-1), Calumet (0-2) at Ishpeming Westwood (2-0). SATURDAY Iron Mountain (1-1) at Houghton (1-1).

West Michigan

Muskegon (1-1) at Zeeland West (1-0)

The Ottawa-Kent Conference reshuffled prior to the 2020 season, and the result was as predicted – the Green is now one of the strongest leagues in the state. The success last season of Muskegon High and Mona Shores is noted above, with Zeeland West winning a Finals title as recently as 2015, Zeeland East reaching the Semifinals in 2018, and among others Reeths-Puffer seemingly on the verge of taking a step the last few seasons and Grand Rapids Union off to a 2-0 start this fall. If last season was an indication though, this will always be a game that plays into the league title hunt – Muskegon won the 2020 meeting 15-14 on the way to finishing second.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids West Catholic (2-0) at Allendale (2-0), Grandville (1-1) at Caledonia (2-0), Hudsonville Unity Christian (2-0) at Hamilton (2-0), Ravenna (2-0) at Whitehall (1-1).

8-Player

Genesee (2-0) at Deckerville (1-0)

The Eagles long ago established themselves as among the elite in 8-player statewide, and last week’s 50-26 win over Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart seems a sign that’s continuing this fall. Deckerville has won all three of its matchups with Genesee since the latter moved to 8-player in 2018, but last season’s game was a competitive 56-36 – and the Wolves are piling up points this fall with a combined 102 over a 56-52 win over Mayville and 46-40 victory over Kingston to start the season.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Mio (2-0) at Au Gres-Sims (2-0), Suttons Bay (2-0) at Merrill (1-1). SATURDAY Kinde North Huron (2-0) at Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (1-1), Norway (1-1) at Lake Linden-Hubbell (2-0).

PHOTO: Detroit Cass Tech’s Julius Faulkner (18) breaks a tackle and prepares to take on another defender during his team’s Week 1 win against Southfield Arts & Technology. (Photo by Quintin Love Jr.)