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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Detroit Martin Luther King football

1st & Goal: 2021 Week 3 in Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 13, 2021

The anticipated came through during Week 3 of this football regular season, and the unpredicted provided an entertaining mix of storylines too.

As expected, the statewide headliners came from Detroit with Martin Luther King winning a much-heralded rivalry matchup – but also Livonia Churchill claiming the upset of this young season.

Elsewhere, Grand Blanc won close again over another highly-regarded opponent. Hudson continued to build on arguably the best small-school start in the state. A number of 8-player teams tried to wear out scoreboards – the 8-player schedule alone saw four games break 100 combined points and a fifth end up at 98, with Indian River Inland Lakes and Central Lake tying the 8-player scoring record by combining to put up 152.

Here’s a glance at those and other results that especially caught our attention.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Grand Blanc 27, Midland Dow 23 Another week, another noteworthy win for the Bobcats (3-0), who have now handed first losses of this season to all three of their opponents. Hunter Ames connected twice with Tae Boyd on scores, the second during the third quarter ending up the game-winner, and the defense stopped Dow’s final rally on the Grand Blanc 15-yard line. Click for more from WJRT.

Watch list Port Huron Northern 22, Fraser 15 The Huskies quickly are the only undefeated team left in the Macomb Area Conference Blue after handing Fraser (2-1) its first defeat, and Northern also is 3-0 for the first time since 1995.

Remember this one Fenton 39, Flushing 20 The win was only the first for Fenton (1-2) after opening with tough nonleague opponents Dow and East Lansing, and it also put the Tigers 1-0 in the Flint Metro League Stripes as those first two losses have nothing to do with Fenton’s opportunity to three-peat as league champion.

More shoutouts Millington 38, Hemlock 7 The Cardinals (3-0) have won by an average of just about 31 points per game, this one avenging last year’s 12-6 loss to the Huskies that decided the Tri-Valley Conference 10-1 title. Bad Axe 26, Unionville-Sebewaing 8 The Hatchets are 3-0 for the first time since 2001 and already halfway to posting their best record since that season.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Detroit Martin Luther King 41, Detroit Cass Tech 34 As anticipated, this one absolutely was worth watching. (Watch the replay here.) Crusaders quarterback Dante Moore threw for 365 yards and five touchdowns including go-ahead scores with 33 seconds to play in the first half and 29 seconds into the fourth quarter as King (2-1) went on to avenge last season’s pair of losses to the Technicians (1-2). Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Watch list Livonia Churchill 28, Belleville 21 If not for King/Cass Tech, this would’ve been the headliner not only from the Detroit area but statewide. Belleville (2-1) hadn’t lost a regular-season game since Week 3 of 2016, and Churchill (3-0) had lost all three recent meetings by at least three touchdowns.  

Remember this one Orchard Lake St. Mary's 28, Harper Woods 14 The four teams in the Detroit Catholic League Central are a combined 10-1 with league play set to begin, and handing Harper Woods (2-1) its first defeat ranks right up there with the most impressive of those 10 wins so far.

More shoutouts Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 23, Detroit Loyola 8 The Fighting Irish (3-0) are quietly 19-4 over the last three seasons and made statements on both sides of the ball scoring the first points Loyola (2-1) had given up and holding the Bull Dogs to only eight after they’d scored a combined 119 over their first two games. Armada 34, North Branch 28 The Tigers are 3-0 for the first time since 2011, after winning three games total last season and no more than four since 2012. They also sent reigning champ North Branch (1-2) to 0-2 in Blue Water Area Conference play.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER DeWitt 49, East Lansing 14 As expected, DeWitt’s offense keyed by quarterback Ty Holtz and receivers Tommy McIntosh and Nick Flegler immediately bounced back from scoring 17 points in a Week 2 loss to Portland. The Capital Area Activities Conference Blue looks a lot stronger top to bottom this season than the past few, but the Panthers have some history on their side going forward as East Lansing is the only league team to defeat DeWitt since it joined the Blue in 2018. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Ovid-Elsie 23, Montrose 22 The Marauders’ seven-point opening loss to still-undefeated Portland looks better by the week, and add to that a win over the Rams (2-1) after losing to them by 42 and 22 points the last two seasons.

Remember this one Mason 34, Williamston 27 The CAAC Red race started off with a massive comeback as the Bulldogs trailed 27-13 at halftime but then held the Hornets scoreless over the final two quarters.

More shoutouts Brighton 7, Hartland 6 The Bulldogs (2-1) earned the slim advantage with a 75-yard pass off a fake punt and their second straight week giving up just one score. St. Louis 35, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 32 The Sharks (3-0) hadn’t won three games in a season since 2018 and at 41 points per game are on pace for their most productive offense since the 1960s.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Traverse City West 21, Cadillac 7 The Titans (3-0) guaranteed they will again have a loud say in who wins the Big North Conference holding off the Vikings (2-1) to set up this week’s possible league-title decider with reigning champ Traverse City Central. West ran its winning streak against 2020 Division 4 runner-up Cadillac to seven, led by a defense that has given up only one score each of the last two weeks. Click for more from MI Sports Now.

Watch list Mancelona 44, Elk Rapids 15 The Ironmen won three games total last season but are 3-0 for the first time since 2012 with a defense giving up just under 12 points per a game.

Remember this one Frankfort 32, Oscoda 16 The Panthers (2-1) handed Oscoda (2-1) its first regular-season defeat since Week 8 of 2019 – and they play each other again this week in a nonconference rematch.

More shoutouts Lake City 24, Manton 0 The Trojans (3-0) are quickly making their way back after finishing 2-4 a year ago, with this week’s Beal City matchup possibly the most telling so far this fall. Boyne City 44, Maple City Glen Lake 10 The Ramblers (3-0) have avenged their two 2020 regular-season losses in back-to-back weeks and have given up only 25 points total over their three wins this fall.

Southeast & Border 

HEADLINER Hudson 36, Clinton 28 A great start just keeps getting greater for the Tigers, who added a league-opening win over the reigning Division 6 runner-up to their first 3-0 start since 2017. Hudson took a 28-14 lead into halftime and held off the Redwolves’ second-half rally. Nick Kopin tore through four touchdown runs including a 91-yarder. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Watch list Napoleon 20, Manchester 18 The Pirates (3-0) are off to their best start since 2002 with now as many wins this fall as they earned the last two seasons combined.

Remember this one Temperance Bedford 37, Dexter 36 (OT) With these two back in the same league for the first time in more than a decade, this could end up deciding the Southeastern Conference Red championship or at the very least keep Bedford (3-0) in contention to win it.

More shoutouts Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 33, Carleton Airport 26 The Falcons are 3-0 for the first time since 2015 with Huron League powers Milan and Riverview up over the next two weeks, respectively. Saline 34, Ypsilanti Lincoln 14 Seven-time reigning SEC Red champ Saline (3-0) won its 40th-straight league game.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Battle Creek Harper Creek 50, Parma Western 22 The Beavers might be one of the best 1-2 teams out there and got into the win column after an opening loss to Battle Creek Lakeview and then a three-point defeat to Hastings. Those two and Parma Western remain a combined 7-2 so far. Harper Creek also had defeated Parma Western in a playoff opener last season. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.

Watch list Watervliet 19, Buchanan 13 After winning two games each of the last three seasons, Watervliet (3-0) has put together an attention-grabbing start with two of those victories over teams that finished last season with winning records.

Remember this one Kalamazoo United 48, Schoolcraft 22 The Hackett/Kalamazoo Christian co-op opened with a difficult slate of Whitehall, Stevensville Lakeshore and now Schoolcraft, and this first win might get the ball rolling with league play coming up.

More shoutouts Cassopolis 28, Comstock 0 The Rangers (2-1) bounced back from a Week 2 loss by shutting out a Comstock team that had scored a combined 82 points during a 2-0 start. Battle Creek Central 34, Lansing Everett 12 The Bearcats (2-1) also showed the ability to rebound nicely, following up a Week 2 defeat by dealing the Vikings (2-1) their first.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Calumet 28, Ishpeming Westwood 14 The Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper race just opened back up with previously-winless Calumet handing Westwood its first defeat. The Copper Kings (1-2) slowed a Patriots offense that had totaled 80 points over the 2-0 start. Click for more from ABC 10

Watch list  Bark River-Harris 40, Kalkaska 20 The Broncos have piled up three double-digit wins for their first 3-0 start since 2015.

Remember this one Houghton 21, Iron Mountain 14 These two have been facing each other as members of the West-PAC Copper together since 2018 – and Iron Mountain (1-2) had won the previous two games of the recent series with Houghton (2-1) by a combined 81-0.

More shoutouts Menominee 35, Gladstone 34 The Maroons (3-0) held off a late scare from Gladstone (1-2) to open Great Northern Conference play. Marquette 50, Escanaba 21 The reigning GNC champ improved to 2-1 and ran its winning streak over rival Escanaba (1-2) to four with its highest-scoring game since 2017.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Muskegon 28, Zeeland West 20  The Big Reds (2-1) bounced right back from a Week 2 loss to Cass Tech with an impressive opening win in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green. The teams were tied midway through the fourth quarter before Muskegon pulled away from the Dux (1-1). Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Watch list  Caledonia 24, Grandville 14 The Fighting Scots (3-0) joined the O-K Red in 2016 and have yet to make their mark in that league – but it could be on the way with this win avenging last year’s 42-7 loss to the Bulldogs (1-2).

Remember this one Grand Rapids Christian 13, East Grand Rapids 11 The Eagles (1-2) ran their winning streak over EGR (1-2) to four, and this O-K White opener could become much more important when the league schedule wraps up in six weeks.

More shoutouts Grand Rapids West Catholic 51, Allendale 14 The Falcons (3-0) have picked right back up from last October’s scoring surge averaging nearly 41 points per game over this start. Allendale (2-1) had given up a total of seven over its first two games. Comstock Park 34, Sparta 27 The Panthers (3-0) had won a combined four games over the last three seasons, but a late score helped pull them within a win of equaling that this week.

8-Player

HEADLINER Deckerville 82, Genesee 48 Scoring a combined 130 points, this matchup exceeded expectations for high-powered offense. Ethan Bowerman set the MHSAA 8-player record with six touchdowns in a quarter and finished with seven total for the Eagles (2-0). Genesee (2-1) saw its scoring average fall to just 50 points per game in defeat. Click for more from the Sanilac County News.

Watch list Waldron 34, Camden-Frontier 22 The Spartans (2-1) had given up at least 44 points every time in losing their first four meetings with C-F (2-1) after the latter moved to 8-player in 2016.

Remember this one Indian River Inland Lakes 86, Central Lake 66 While it’s unfortunate either team lost a game like this, it will live on as it tied the 8-player record for most points in a game where both teams scored at least 40. Inland Lakes remained undefeated at 3-0 while Central Lake fell to 1-2.

More shoutouts Crystal Falls Forest Park 62, Ontonagon 60 (2OT) Hardly a consolation prize on a night of historic 8-player scoring, this game now ranks third all-time among highest-scoring 8-player overtime games. The Trojans improved to 3-0 while Ontonagon (2-1) suffered its first loss. Au Gres-Sims 62, Mio 54 These two combined for only 116 points as the Wolverines (3-0) stayed at the top of the North Star League and handed Mio (2-1) its first defeat.

PHOTO: Detroit King’s Rashawn Mersier (18) is taken to the ground after a gain during Friday’s win over Detroit Cass Tech. (Photo by Quintin Love Jr.)