Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Bad Axe Sharp Again in Building on 2020 Success with 5-0 Start

By Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com

September 30, 2021

When it comes to dishing out praise for the newfound success of the Bad Axe football program, those involved are doing plenty of finger pointing.

The good kind.

“I think it’s all the responsibility of our head coach, coach (Kal) Pokley,” Bad Axe senior offensive and defensive lineman Sam Hass said. “He was essential to our team – just his coaching skills and bringing us all together and getting us focused for our games.”

Pokley pointed right back.

“It really comes down to the kids and the parents,” he said. “The kids have really bought into the program. They’ve bought into our offense and our defense. They trust it, and they know it works. Because of that, we’ve been able to be more successful. They’re very hard workers, and they’ve been willing to put in the work in the offseason.”

They’re both right, and now the Hatchets are reaping the benefits. After a 2020 season that saw it win a share of the Greater Thumb Conference West title and earn its first playoff victory since 1978, Bad Axe is now off to a 5-0 start, its best since 2001. 

“It’s a blast to see all of our hard work pay off – all the hard work we put in through the offseason,” junior quarterback and defensive back Keaton Braun said. “I think last year, winning our first league title in who knows how long, and our first playoff win and everything, it kind of puts in perspective how hard work can lead you in the right direction.”

Bad Axe footballPokley took over the Bad Axe program as head coach prior to the 2020 season, after serving as a junior high and junior varsity coach the previous four seasons. He inherited a program that had a single playoff appearance (2014) since 2001, and just nine winning seasons during the playoff era (since 1975). The 1978 team lost in the Class C Final, but the three playoff wins that season represented the only three in program history prior to 2020.

But Pokley had coached the JV team to a perfect record in 2019, and saw the potential in the players within the program. While they opened the 2020 season with a 36-6 loss to Sandusky, Pokley’s optimism for the program didn’t waver, and his players backed that up, showing up early for a Sunday film session following that game. The Hatchets would win their next four, not allowing a “here we go again” attitude to creep in.

“As a coaching staff, that wasn’t going to be an option, so it wasn’t talked about,” Pokley said. “We had done some preseason polls, some meetings with the kids, and a bunch of the seniors from last year, they were very vocal early on that they weren’t OK with that, and they weren’t going to let that happen.”

The Hatchets finished the regular season 4-2, their other loss coming against Division 8 finalist Ubly, and defeated rival Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker in the opening round of the playoffs before losing 20-17 to Hemlock in the second round. 

“It felt pretty good knowing that we had changed the culture,” Hass said. “For years, Bad Axe had kind of been on the (back) end of the league. Being part of a team that kind of flipped that around felt pretty good.”

That has continued into this season, as Bad Axe is perfect heading into Week 6 when it will take on another undefeated GTC West team, Reese. To get to this point, the Hatchets have ridden a balanced offensive attack and a dominant defense. After winning 42-33 in Week 1 against perennial Greater Thumb Conference contender Harbor Beach, the Hatchets have allowed just 14 points total over their past four games.

That defensive effort has been led by junior linebacker Jake MacPhee, who has 41 tackles on the season.

Bad Axe footballOffensively, the Hatchets have had multiple players stand out on different nights. Braun was the star against Harbor Beach, running for 165 yards and throwing for 146 more, along with two touchdowns. Griffin Meinhold (135 yards, two touchdowns) and Devyn Howard (116 yards, one touchdown) led the attack against Cass City, and Blake Talaski (82 yards, two touchdowns) handled things against Caro.

Braun is averaging an impressive 8.7 yards per carry through five weeks, and he’s well behind Meinhold (16.8) and Howard (17.2), who are spitting out big plays nearly every time they touch the ball.

“They’re focused, and they know they’re capable as long as they’re continuing to put in the hard work,” Pokley said. “Up to this point, they’ve really been focused on doing the right things – staying after practice, watching film, staying healthy and getting good grades. It’s really a blessing – I can’t say enough about this group of kids.”

The players said they’ve noticed a different energy around town and in their school, which has turned into big, excited crowds on Friday nights. 

“There are a lot more people showing up to our games,” senior offensive and defensive lineman Austin Volmering said. “There’s a lot more cheering, and that helps us get more momentum.”

The Hatchets are hoping that momentum turns into another GTC West title, and then a longer playoff run. They aren’t shying away from the biggest of goals, either, as they feel they can play with anyone lined up in front of them. After seeing some of their league mates make deep runs, there’s a bit of a “why not us?” vibe in a program where that once seemed unthinkable.

“It motivates us a lot to see (Ubly, Harbor Beach and other GTC teams) getting to that stage in the playoffs, and know that a small-town team can play football with the bigger towns and bigger teams,” Meinhold said. “It means a lot knowing that they can do that, and we believe that we can, too.”

Paul CostanzoPaul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.

PHOTOS (Top) The Bad Axe offense, including Noah Braun (53) and Draiden Romas (24), lines up against Caro during their Week 5 matchup. (Middle) Blake Talaski (20) pulls in a touchdown grab against the Tigers. (Below) The Hatchets are off to their best season start since 2001. (Photos courtesy of the Bad Axe football program.)