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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Muskegon/Mona Shores football

1st & Goal: 2021 Week 7 in Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 11, 2021

One result we're watching closely with the switch to a new playoff selection format for 11-player football – with no six-wins-and-in – is that every game feels like it matters more.

MI Student Aid

It could be a lot, or just a little as teams must push all the way through Week 9 to solidify their spots in the playoff field.

We’ll start understanding that much more over these final few weeks as teams hope their strength of schedule helps boost their playoff hopes. And there were plenty of results from Week 7 that likely will impact how 256 11-player and 32 8-player teams reach the playoffs Oct. 24.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Port Huron 14, Port Huron Northern 7 The Big Reds (6-1) finished a repeat run in the Macomb Area Conference Blue with this winner-take-all victory over the rival Huskies (6-1), extending their streak against Northern to three straight victories. Port Huron took a 14-0 lead into the break and finished with its fewest points given up in a game this season. Click for more from the Port Huron Times-Herald.

Watch list Lake Fenton 14, Goodrich 12 The Blue Devils (6-1) ended a three-game losing streak to the Martians (5-2) to create a shared Flint Metro League Stars championship between the two. Goodrich scored late, but Lake Fenton stopped the two-point conversion try to hold onto the lead.

Remember this one Gladwin 48, Clare 42 The Flying G’s (7-0) have earned a share of their first Jack Pine Conference championship since 2002, sending Clare (4-3) into second place, and can clinch their first outright JPC title this week against Beaverton.

More shoutouts Reese 27, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 18 By way of this win, Bad Axe earned a share of the Greater Thumb Conference West title. Laker (5-2) still can make the league end with a three-way championship, adding Reese (6-1) back into the mix, if it defeats the Hatchets this week. Swartz Creek 35, Flushing 28 This combined with Fenton’s 36-34 win over Linden created a shared Metro League Stripes championship between the Dragons and Tigers, both 4-3 overall.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Romeo 7, Sterling Heights Stevenson 0 A stingy Romeo defense put together its best performance of the season when it counted most, earning its second shutout of the fall to create a shared MAC Red championship with the Titans (5-2). Joey Kostrubiec’s fourth-quarter scoring run provided the Bulldogs (6-1) with their winning margin. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Watch list Dearborn Fordson 38, Livonia Churchill 33 Alex Osman’s five first-half touchdown passes helped Fordson reset the Kensington Lakes Activities Association East title race. Fordson, Churchill and Belleville all are 5-1 in league play and 6-1 overall heading into this week’s division finales.

Remember this one Madison Heights Bishop Foley 51, Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard 20 The Ventures (6-1) scored their season high in clinching the Detroit Catholic League Intersectional #1 championship after finishing second in the league a year ago.

More shoutouts Harper Woods Chandler Park 18, Warren Michigan Collegiate 16 The Eagles (5-2) came back from a two-point halftime deficit to clinch the Charter School Conference East title against second-place Michigan Collegiate (4-3). Detroit Pershing 22, Detroit Osborn 0 The Doughboys (5-2) posted their third shutout in Detroit Public School League Division 2 play to earn a spot in this week’s Gold championship game, while sending Osborn to 4-3.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Breckenridge 12, Carson City-Crystal 0 The winner-take-all Mid-State Activities Conference championship matchup went to the Huskies, as they posted their second-straight shutout to lock up their sixth-straight league title. Breckenridge (5-2) is 29-0 in league play since joining the MSAC in 2016, and Carson City-Crystal (6-1) has finished league runner-up three of the last four seasons. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.

Watch list New Lothrop 33, Durand 20 The Mid-Michigan Activities Conference title race has worked itself down to three teams as the Hornets handed Durand (5-2) its second league loss. The Hornets (5-2) and Ovid-Elsie are tied for first at 5-1 in league play with a game to go, and Montrose figures in too at 4-1 since one of its league games was canceled.

Remember this one Olivet 37, Lake Odessa Lakewood 0 The Eagles (5-2) ran their Great Lakes Activities Conference winning streak to 23 games and championship streak to five seasons since last losing a league game and title, to Lakewood (4-3), in 2016.

More shoutouts Holt 26, East Lansing 21 The Rams (5-2) got some serious playoff-point bounce from defeating East Lansing (4-3) as they look to stick in the Division 1 field. Mason 24, Fowlerville 6 The Bulldogs (5-2) finished with a share of a third-straight Capital Area Activities Conference Red title, with Haslett and Williamston also earning pieces of the championship with wins this weekend.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Boyne City 50, Mancelona 18 The Ramblers clinched a share of the Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders championship in what was a showdown for the top spot in the league. Boyne City (6-1) can claim the title outright this week against Elk Rapids, while Mancelona (5-1) still can guarantee its winningest season since 2014 with a victory this week against Charlevoix or Week 9 against Maple City Glen Lake. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Traverse City Central 56, Alpena 7 After opening this season with a loss to DeWitt at Michigan Stadium, Central (6-1) has won all of its games by at least 24 points and finished a third-straight perfect run through the Big North Conference.

Remember this one Cadillac 35, Petoskey 0 The Vikings (5-2) are up to a comfortable 10th in Division 4, while Petoskey (3-4) is sitting just outside the Division 3 playoff field at No. 34 after this defeat.

More shoutouts Traverse City St. Francis 42, Sault Ste. Marie 28 The Gladiators (7-0) are up to No. 3 in Division 7 and remain set up for a winner-take-all NMFC Legends meeting with Kingsley in two weeks. Charlevoix 32, Kalkaska 30 The Rayders (6-1) narrowly eluded an upset, but Kalkaska (1-6) has made strides – the Blazers have faced the top three teams in the Leaders over the last three weeks and lost to two of them by only a score.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Saline 35, Temperance Bedford 21 The Hornets secured a share of an eighth-straight Southeastern Conference Red championship with an opportunity to finish the outright title run this week against Dexter. Saline quarterback CJ Carr was a standout with three passing touchdowns and one more rushing. Bedford (5-2) still has a strong chance to reach seven wins for the first time since 2016 with its final two opponents a combined 1-13. Click for more from the Toledo Blade.

Watch list Sand Creek 48, Erie Mason 6 The Aggies (5-2) will need some help from Mason in Week 9 to catch leader Ottawa Lake Whiteford for a share of the Tri-County Conference title, but Sand Creek moved into a tie for second place by avenging last season’s 56-38 loss to the Eagles (4-3).

Remember this one Michigan Center 12, Napoleon 7 The Cardinals (6-1) turned this week’s Napoleon/Addison game from a winner-take-all in the Cascades Conference title race to an opportunity to share the championship three ways if the Pirates can rebound with a win.

More shoutouts Addison 59, Grass Lake 0 Addison (7-0) sealed a share of the Cascades title, its third straight. Dexter 56, Monroe 27 This was an important win for Dexter (5-2), which sits No. 16 in Division 2 with two losses by a combined eight points and two undefeated opponents finishing off the regular-season schedule.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Stevensville Lakeshore 35, St. Joseph 28 The Lancers (6-1) scored 21 fourth-quarter points and the game winners during the final minute to hold on to a share of first place in the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference and send St. Joseph (5-2) into third with its second straight one-score defeat. The fourth quarter also featured back-to-back kickoff return touchdowns that made the score 28-28 before Ryan Korfmacher found Trevor Griffiths on a scoring pass as the final 30 seconds ticked off the clock. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.

Watch list White Pigeon 32, Cassopolis 8 While this game was only for second place in the Southwest 10 Conference, White Pigeon (6-1) held on to a top-10 spot in Division 8.

Remember this one Mattawan 19, Battle Creek Lakeview 14 The Wildcats’ only other win this fall came by forfeit, but they have a chance to finish strong after almost taking Lakeview (4-3) completely out of the SMAC title race.

More shoutouts Kalamazoo United 37, Watervliet 0 United (5-2) made a move into the top half of the Division 5 playoff list and remains one of two teams undefeated in Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore play after shutting down a Watervliet offense that averaged 32 points per game during its 4-2 start. Vicksburg 35, Plainwell 6 The Bulldogs (6-1) moved up to No. 5 in Division 4 after winning this matchup for second place in the Wolverine Conference.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Menominee 34, Marquette 13 The Maroons broke a three-game losing streak against Marquette and in doing so earned a share of the Great Northern Conference championship, their first since 2016. Menominee (5-2) went up 20-6 by halftime and locked down an offense that was averaging 44 points per game. Marquette (5-2) still will receive a share of the league title if Kingsford defeats Menominee in Week 9.

Watch list Negaunee 31, Gladstone 30 The Miners (6-1) have been on a run since losing to Iron Mountain by two in the season opener, but just got past Gladstone (3-4) to keep the streak intact.

Remember this one Iron Mountain 28, Hancock 18 The Mountaineers (4-3) earned a boost up to No. 8 in Division 8 while putting Hancock (3-4) in a tough position trying to reach the Division 5 playoff field.

More shoutouts Ishpeming Westwood 38, L'Anse 6 The Patriots (6-1) secured a spot in a possible Week 9 winner-takes-at-least-a-share title game against Negaunee in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper. Calumet 31, Houghton 7 The above-mentioned Week 9 Copper game isn’t necessarily winner-take-all as Calumet (5-2) now finishes with the bottom two teams in the league and is guaranteed a share as well with wins in both.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Muskegon 49, Muskegon Mona Shores 28 The Big Reds (6-1) are back on top in this rivalry and back on top in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green after riding a big defensive touchdown just before halftime into a dominant second half. Mona Shores (5-2) led 21-14 during the first half before the big-time Big Reds finish. Click for more from CatchMark SportsNet.

Watch list Rockford 17, Caledonia 14 The Rams (7-0) took a major step toward an O-K Red title and perfect regular season by handing Caledonia (6-1) its lone loss. Rockford finishes with opponents that are a combined 3-11.

Remember this one Hudsonville Unity Christian 40, Grand Rapids West Catholic 14 Over two weeks we’ve watched the O-K Blue sort out from four first-place teams to Unity (7-0) on top alone with two league games to play and this the Crusaders’ closest so far.

More shoutouts Grand Rapids Christian 24, Byron Center 10 The O-K White race just got reshuffled a bit with the Eagles (4-3) back in the mix and Byron Center (6-1) now taking on leader Forest Hills Central this week just to keep a shared title possible. Spring Lake 27, Coopersville 20 The Lakers (6-1) and West Catholic (6-1) will be rooting this week for Coopersville (5-2), which moves on to take on Unity this week and can turn the Blue back into a three-team league race.

8-Player

HEADLINER Martin 28, Mendon 20 The Clippers (7-0) won a first-place showdown in the Southwest Michigan 8-Man Football League Tier 1 to clinch a share of the conference championship. Martin significantly slowed a Mendon offense averaging 48 points per game and can clinch the title outright next week against Marcellus, while Mendon (5-2) will face Gobles and hope for some help from the Wildcats. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.

Watch list Indian River Inland Lakes 49, Pellston 6 The Bulldogs (7-0) still need one more win to clinch a share of the Ski Valley Conference title and still have second-place Gaylord St. Mary coming up in Week 9. But sending Pellston (6-1) also into second place in impressive fashion should turn a lot of eyes toward the No. 6 team in Division 1.

Remember this one Tekonsha 36, Waldron 14 Tekonsha (5-2) finished second in its league the last two seasons but clinched a share of the Southern Central Athletic Association B title with this win while sending Waldron (5-2) into a tie for second place.

More shoutouts Suttons Bay 45, Marion 0 By handing Marion (6-1) its lone loss and in a big way, the Norsemen (7-0) made a statement with the playoffs coming up. Pickford 34, Newberry 28 (OT) The Panthers (6-1) maintained control of their title hopes, while sending Newberry (5-2) nearly out of contention in the Great Lakes Eight Conference East.

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PHOTO Muskegon pulled away from rival Mona Shores during the second half of Friday's 49-28 win. (Photo courtesy of Local Sports Journal.)