Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
1st & Goal: 2021 Playoff Week 1 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 28, 2021
From an up-close point of view, at just more than half of Michigan’s football-playing high schools, three months of football season ended last weekend.
But from a mile-high perspective, 20 teams have played just slightly more than half their games this fall – and 288 begin this weekend with the opportunity to add onto their seasons and finish among that fortunate few.
Playoffs begin Friday with District Semifinals in 11-player and Regional Semifinals in 8-Player – click here for the full schedule for each division. More than 100 of the 144 total playoff football games will be broadcast on MHSAA.tv, with Clinton Township Chippewa Valley at Troy appearing on the Bally Sports Detroit primary channel tonight – click for more on how to watch.
Below are glances at games that especially pop off the page in every division. (Games are Friday unless noted.)
11-Player Division 1
Howell (7-2) at Hartland (7-2)
The co-champions in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West meet again, after Hartland won the regular-season matchup 29-7 on Oct. 1. Those remain the most points given up by a Highlanders defense allowing an average of 11.9 per game, while the Eagles’ defense finished the regular season giving up an average of just 9.6 (and only five per game not counting a 46-9 Week 9 loss to No. 6 Belleville). This time Howell will have running back August Johanningsmeier, a Western Michigan recruit, who didn’t play during the first meeting.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (6-3) at Troy (8-1), Ann Arbor Huron (8-1) at Belleville (8-1), Detroit Cass Tech (6-3) at Dearborn Fordson (7-2), Lapeer (7-2) at Rochester Adams (9-0).
11-Player Division 2
Muskegon Mona Shores (7-2) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (8-1)
Two-time reigning Division 2 champion Mona Shores is facing a playoff road that may not include a home game. But while that adds to the challenge, the Sailors are plenty familiar with elite opponents – their losses this fall were to Division 3 top-ranked Detroit Martin Luther King and No. 5 Muskegon High. This week’s trip is especially intriguing, however – Forest Hills Central barely fell to Shores 28-25 during the last year’s playoffs and by just six points in a 2018 playoff matchup, and won their 2017 postseason meeting. The Rangers’ only loss this fall was early by four points to Division 1 No. 4 Grand Blanc.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Dexter (5-4) at Battle Creek Lakeview (6-3), Port Huron (6-3) at Port Huron Northern (7-2), Bay City Western (7-2) at Midland Dow (6-3), East Lansing (6-3) at Milford (7-2).
11-Player Division 3
River Rouge (6-2) at Harper Woods (7-2)
These are familiar opponents with this their eighth meeting over the last 14 seasons, including as members together of the Michigan Metro Athletic Conference Blue from 2017-19. River Rouge has won the last five of those matchups and is continuing to build on a decade as a Finals contender as it looks to return to Ford Field for the third-straight season. But Harper Woods has been climbing. Two of those losses to Rouge in the MMAC Blue were league title deciders, and the Pioneers have made the playoffs four straight seasons (including all-in 2020) with their lone defeats this fall to Division 2 top-ranked Warren De La Salle Collegiate and Division 3 qualifier Orchard Lake St. Mary’s.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Marquette (7-2) at Mount Pleasant (9-0), Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (5-4) at Flint Kearsley (6-3), Warren Fitzgerald (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (8-1), Riverview (9-0) at Allen Park (7-2).
11-Player Division 4
Whitehall (7-2) at Sparta (7-2)
The Spartans somewhat quietly put together a fourth-straight winning season with their two defeats this fall coming over the first three weeks and by a combined eight points. The first of those losses was opening night to Muskegon Oakridge, 22-21, which went on to defeat and then share the West Michigan Conference championship with Whitehall. The Vikings are coming off a 10-point loss at 8-1 Reed City, but can boast wins over Montague and Kalamazoo United to go with their league title share.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Spring Lake (6-3) at Grand Rapids Christian (6-3), Goodrich (7-2) at Freeland (8-1), Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (7-2) at Croswell-Lexington (8-1). SATURDAY Detroit Country Day (5-3) at Redford Union (8-1).
11-Player Division 5
Comstock Park (9-0) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (8-1)
Houseman Field will host one of the most intriguing matchups statewide regardless of division. Both teams have four wins over others in these playoffs. Comstock Park bounced way back this fall from three straight one or two-win seasons to finish ahead of Sparta (see above) in winning the Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver title. The Panthers are plenty familiar with West Catholic after losing to the Falcons in last season’s playoffs and playing them either as part of the same league or nonconference the 12 seasons prior. West Catholic’s only loss this fall was to eventual O-K Blue champion Hudsonville Unity Christian, and the Falcons handed Division 7 contender Muskegon Catholic Central its lone loss.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Clare (6-3) at Gladwin (9-0), Kingsford (6-3) at Kingsley (8-1), Olivet (7-2) at Williamston (6-3), Corunna (5-4) at Flint Powers Catholic (3-6).
11-Player Division 6
Michigan Center (8-1) at Jonesville (9-0)
This is a rematch of last season’s District Final won by Michigan Center 28-22, and they just missed seeing each other in the Big 8/Cascades crossovers of this year’s Week 9. Jonesville won the Big 8 Conference this fall, and then edged Cascades champion Addison 20-14 last Saturday in the Comets’ only game this season closer than 16 points. Michigan Center was second in the Cascades after a one-point Week 4 loss to Addison, but since the Cardinals have shined in close games winning three by eight points of fewer.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Calumet (7-2) at Menominee (5-4), Boyne City (8-1) at Grayling (7-2), Erie Mason (5-4) at Ida (7-2), Detroit Pershing (5-4) at Detroit Southeastern (6-3).
11-Player Division 7
Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (7-2) at Reese (8-1)
All three co-champions of the Greater Thumb Conference West play in the same District, and these two are meeting again after Reese won the Week 7 matchup 27-18. The Rockets are enjoying their first winning season since 2013, losing only to Bad Axe – the third co-champion in the GTC West. Laker has enjoyed more recent success, with this its sixth-straight playoff appearance. The Lakers edged Bad Axe by a point Week 8 to create the shared league title. Bad Axe travels to Hemlock on the other side of the District bracket.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY New Lothrop (6-3) at Montrose (7-2), Lutheran Westland (8-1) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (8-1), Bad Axe (7-2) at Hemlock (5-4). SATURDAY East Jordan (7-2) at Ishpeming Westwood (8-1).
11-Player Division 8
Centreville (7-2) at Addison (8-1)
Four of the top 14 teams in Division 8 playoff points are in the same District (Reading and Hudson are on the other side). Addison entered as the No. 3 team and Centreville is No. 10 and also the reigning Division 8 champion. As noted above, Addison’s lone loss came last week to Division 6 No. 11 Jonesville, and Centreville’s defeats came to a pair of Division 7 teams including No. 6 Muskegon Catholic Central. Both are league champions and have put up similar numbers overall this fall – but the difference may be found when Addison is on offense (averaging 43.8 points per game, but 48 not counting the Jonesville loss) and Centreville is on D (12 points allowed per game, but only 8.6 after opening night.)
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Fowler (6-3) at Flint Beecher (4-5), Reading (6-3) at Hudson (9-0). SATURDAY Bark River-Harris (6-3) at Beal City (8-1), Frankfort (6-3) at Iron Mountain (6-3).
8-Player Division 1
Rogers City (8-1) at Indian River Inland Lakes (9-0)
Inland Lakes dove into 8-player last season with great success, and Rogers City is following the same path in its first season this fall while the Bulldogs have been even better in their encore. Inland Lakes reached the Division 1 Semifinals in 2020 and is coming off its closest game of this season, a 14-point win over Gaylord St. Mary. Rogers City is coming off its defeat – 44-36 to Newberry – but didn’t give up a point in September and won its first three games of October against teams sitting now at .500 or better.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Rudyard (7-2) at Munising (7-2), Tekonsha (7-2) at Martin (9-0). SATURDAY Britton Deerfield (8-1) at Deckerville (7-1).
8-Player Division 2
Colon (8-1) at Portland St. Patrick (9-0), Saturday
These have been two of the most dominating 8-player programs in the state over the last four years, with Portland St. Patrick defeating the Magi 44-34 last season in a Regional Final on the way to the Shamrocks finishing Division 2 runners-up for the third time in four seasons. Colon was the Division 1 champion in 2019, and its only other losses over the last two seasons were to reigning Division 1 champion and current favorite Adrian Lenawee Christian. Portland St. Patrick long has thrived offensively, scoring 43.6 points per game this fall, while Colon has established itself as a defensive juggernaut over the last three seasons and has given up 11 points per game with five shutouts.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Mio (6-3) at Hillman (6-3), Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (7-2) at Kinde North Huron (9-0). SATURDAY Crystal Falls Forest Park (7-2) at Lake Linden-Hubbell (7-2).
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PHOTO Edwardsburg, here on offense against Otsego, brings a 9-0 record into the Division 4 playoffs. (Photo by Gary Shook.)