Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
1st & Goal: 2021 Playoff Week 2 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
November 4, 2021
It’s too early to say how much numbers are telling the story of this MHSAA Football Playoffs. But as we preview this weekend’s second rounds, we have a few interesting ones to share.
Just more than 20 percent of the 144 teams still playing – 29 total – have not tasted defeat this fall. Another 35 teams – or 24 percent – have suffered just a single loss.
What’s more, only 12 of this weekend’s 72 games – a mere 17 percent – feature matchups of those teams. And all 12 are among games noted below as we take a glance at 11-Player District Finals and 8-Player Regional Finals.
Click here for the full schedule for each division. More than 50 of the 72 playoff football games will be broadcast on MHSAA.tv, with the 11-player Division 3 matchup of River Rouge at Detroit Martin Luther King appearing on the Bally Sports Detroit PLUS channel tonight – click for more on how to watch. (Games below are Friday unless noted.)
11-Player Division 1
Detroit Catholic Central (8-2) at West Bloomfield (9-1)
Both experienced an early fade from the statewide buzz after Week 1 losses – West Bloomfield to Rochester Adams and DCC to Clinton Township Chippewa Valley – but they’re right back where most expected after rising to Nos. 7 and 9, respectively, in Division 1 by the end of the regular season. Adams remains undefeated, and West Bloomfield went on to earn wins over Clarkston and Oxford, while DCC finished second in a Detroit Catholic League Central that has all four teams still alive in the playoffs. The Shamrocks have given up 9.4 points per game since that opening loss, and seven of West Bloomfield’s wins are by double digits.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (7-3) at Sterling Heights Stevenson (8-2), Brownstown Woodhaven (9-1) at Dearborn Fordson (8-2), Grandville (7-3) at Rockford (10-0).
11-Player Division 2
Bay City Western (8-2) at Traverse City Central (9-1)
The Warriors are scoring nearly 46 points per game, with their 459 total approaching how many they put on the scoreboard over the last three seasons combined. They fell just shy of claiming a share of a league championship, but a District title would be a program first since 2005. It would be even more well-deserved considering the opponent. Traverse City Central has been all but unstoppable since falling to DeWitt in Week 1, giving up 8.4 points per game over its nine wins with victories over playoff teams from all over the state – Marquette (60-28), Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (56-13) and Saginaw Heritage (49-7) – to go with another championship run through the Big North Conference.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Muskegon Mona Shores (8-2) at Caledonia (9-1), Roseville (6-4) at Port Huron Northern (8-2), East Lansing (7-3) at South Lyon (10-0).
11-Player Division 3
River Rouge (7-2) at Detroit Martin Luther King (9-1)
With a combined five MHSAA Finals appearances between them over the last five seasons, Rouge vs. King is a matchup that’s been highly-anticipated since the bracket came out two weeks ago. The Panthers won last season’s meeting 33-30 to clinch a Regional championship on the way to the finishing Division 3 runners-up at Ford Field. Rouge should be ready for the tests of another close game after concluding the regular season with a one-point victory over Southfield Arts & Technology and then coming back to defeat Harper Woods in overtime last week. King similarly has lessons from two one-score wins over Detroit Cass Tech to recall if this one stays tight, and opened the playoffs by handing Warren Fitzgerald just its second loss, 55-12.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Allen Park (8-2) at Gibraltar Carlson (9-1), Mount Pleasant (10-0) at DeWitt (9-1). SATURDAY Cedar Springs (8-2) at Muskegon (9-1).
11-Player Division 4
Grand Rapids Christian (7-3) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (10-0)
Seemingly with a little less fanfare, Hudsonville Unity Christian has been just as impressive as any of the Grand Rapids-area powers this fall, outscoring opponents by an average score of 56-11 despite a regular-season schedule that included six playoff teams. Grand Rapids Christian was one of them, and the Crusaders won their Week 2 matchup 58-21. But the Eagles are 7-1 since while navigating a similarly treacherous group of opponents, and they’ve given up only 18 points per game during that run.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Detroit Country Day (6-3) at Livonia Clarenceville (9-1), Freeland (9-1) at Lake Fenton (9-1). SATURDAY Croswell-Lexington (9-1) at St. Clair (8-2).
11-Player Division 5
Grand Rapids West Catholic (9-1) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (10-0)
West Catholic’s only loss came against Unity Christian (see above), and the Falcons are looking to make what would be the biggest splash so far in a playoffs already filling up with them. GRCC’s average margin of victory is 34 points – by an average score of 45-11 – with Division 3 hopeful Cedar Springs knocking that down a bit with its one-point loss in Week 8. But save for that 40-14 Unity loss, West Catholic has defeated its opponents on average 42-14. The Falcons’ wins over Muskegon Catholic Central in Week 2 and Comstock Park last week are the only losses those teams have suffered.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Muskegon Oakridge (8-2) at Howard City Tri County (9-1), Clare (7-3) at Kingsley (9-1), Kalamazoo United (7-3) at Berrien Springs (10-0).
11-Player Division 6
Millington (10-0) at Lansing Catholic (9-1), Saturday
The Cardinals lost a close District Final a year ago and are seeking their first title at this level of the playoffs since winning back-to-back in 2016 and 2017. They boast a defense that hasn’t given up a point in two weeks and allows only 8.6 per game on average. Millington should get a test from a Cougars offense scoring 35 points per game, including the just seven scored during a Week 9 loss to Division 7 contender Pewamo-Westphalia. Lansing Catholic bounced back last week to defeat Durand 37-6, and the Cougars have some high-pressure experience having reached the Semifinals last season and won Division 5 in 2019. Alex Watters as a sophomore was among stars on the championship team and is approaching 1,000 yards receiving as well as leading the team in rushing touchdowns.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Montague (7-3) at Reed City (9-1), Calumet (8-2) at Negaunee (8-2). SATURDAY Michigan Center (9-1) at Constantine (10-0).
11-Player Division 7
New Lothrop (7-3) at Pewamo-Westphalia (10-0)
Just to get it out of the way, New Lothrop has its most losses in a season since 2009 – and that fact means very little in this matchup. The Hornets came back off last season’s Division 7 championship with a loaded nonleague schedule to go with an improved conference, and those three defeats came against teams – Jackson Lumen Christi, Montrose and Frankenmuth – which are a combined 26-4 after New Lothrop handed the Rams a loss in their rematch last week. Pewamo-Westphalia’s run has looked similar with four league champions filling its nonleague slate including last week’s playoff opener opponent Ithaca. Fun fact to remember: When P-W defeated New Lothrop in the 2017 and 2019 playoffs, it went on to win the Division 7 title, and New Lothrop did the same after defeating P-W in 2018.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (9-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (9-1), Detroit Loyola (5-4) at Detroit Central (10-0). SATURDAY Charlevoix (8-1) at Ishpeming Westwood (9-1).
11-Player Division 8
Addison (9-1) at Hudson (10-0)
Addison entered the postseason No. 3 in Division 8 playoff points, with Hudson holding down the top spot – and all four teams in the District ranking among the top 14. Hudson has shut out four of its last five opponents and is giving up just 6.2 points per game, with wins over larger foes Ida, Clinton and Ithaca highlighting a resume that includes the Tigers’ first perfect regular season since 2011. Addison has its winningest season since 2006, with an offense averaging nearly 42 points per game leading a charge that’s included victories over larger Michigan Center and reigning champion Centreville in last week’s District Semifinal.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Sand Creek (7-3) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (9-1), Fowler (7-3) at Breckenridge (8-2), Iron Mountain (7-3) at Beal City (9-1).
8-Player Division 1
Indian River Inland Lakes (10-0) at Suttons Bay (10-0)
Suttons Bay’s only two losses over the last three seasons have come in Division 1 championship games, but this may be as titanic a matchup as the Norsemen have faced short of the Finals during that run. These two were supposed to meet in a Semifinal last season that was unable to be played, and that just adds another wrinkle to the anticipation. Inland Lakes averages 58 points per game, and Suttons Bay gives up 8.8. Somewhere in the middle, the winner will not only earn a Regional title but is assured to host next week’s Semifinal as well.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Rudyard (8-2) at Newberry (8-2), Mendon (8-2) at Martin (10-0), Britton Deerfield (9-1) at Adrian Lenawee Christian (10-0).
8-Player Division 2
Kinde North Huron (10-0) at Au Gres-Sims (10-0)
Just when it looks like Inland Lakes’ offense can’t be matched this season (see above), here come the Wolverines averaging 61 points per game with a season-low of 48 against a Hillman team still alive on the other side of the bracket. It’s been a great comeback story after Au Gres-Sims won just a game a year ago and three in 2019, and it can add another highlight by avenging last season’s 66-12 playoff loss to North Huron. That’s of course easier written than done, as the Warriors haven’t slowed since reaching last season’s Semifinals and even avenged one of their two 2020 defeats.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Colon (9-1) at Morrice (10-0), Crystal Falls Forest Park (8-2) at Powers North Central (10-0), Hillman (7-3) at Marion (9-1).
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PHOTO Muskegon Heights Academy, here against Muskegon Catholic Central, will face Carson City-Crystal on Friday for a Division 8 District championship. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)