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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

DeWitt/Cedar Springs football

1st & Goal: 2021 Playoff Week 3 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 15, 2021

Only 36 teams and two weeks remain in this MHSAA Football Playoffs, and the third round is something of a turning point.

MI Student AidThings always seem to start moving faster from here.

But as we prep for trips Saturday to Marquette for 8-player and neutral sites all over the Lower Peninsula for 11-player, and then to Ford Field in 10 short days, let’s take a few more minutes to appreciate a weekend that saw 10 games decided by eight points or fewer and five 2020 finalists defeated as this year’s contenders took another step.

8-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Suttons Bay 42, Rudyard 36 (OT) The Norseman (12-0) earned their third-straight Division 1 championship game appearance with a game-tying touchdown with 20 seconds left in regulation and the winning score (and defensive stand) in overtime. Rudyard did complete its longest playoff run since 1982 at 9-3, improving substantially on three straight sub-.500 finishes with its most wins since 2009. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

HEADLINER Adrian Lenawee Christian 36, Martin 14 The reigning champion Cougars (12-0) are headed back to the Division 1 Final as well thanks to a 22-0 second-half run led in part by quarterback Ashur Bryja. Lenawee Christian actually scored the final 30 points, capitalizing on a Martin miscue on the last play of the second quarter to get back to even at halftime. The Clippers (11-1) ended their second-straight trip to the Semifinals with their winningest season since 1987. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

8-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Powers North Central 73, Marion 8 The Jets (12-0), despite playing only 11 games on the field (one win was a forfeit), are approaching 700 points this season, and this was their season high. Coincidentally, North Central is scoring nearly the same number of points per game (only seven tenths of a point more) than during last season’s undefeated Division 2 title run. This was Marion’s second-straight trip to the Semifinals, and the Clippers (10-2) finished with their most wins since 1992. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

HEADLINER Colon 42, Au Gres-Sims 6 The Magi (11-1) have played and defeated three previously-unbeaten teams during this playoffs, with this their most substantial win of the set. Quarterback Simon Vinson either ran or threw for a combined five touchdowns, and Colon will look to add a second championship in three seasons after winning Division 1 in 2019. The Wolverines (11-1) completed an incredible turnaround season, having gone 11-1 as well in 2018 but then 3-6 in 2019 and 1-6 a year ago. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.

11-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Grand Blanc 28, Rockford 27 The Bobcats clinched their first trip to the Finals, and with an exciting finish. Grand Blanc (12-0) scored go-ahead touchdowns four times and Rockford answered all four, but couldn’t add a two-point conversion after pulling within a point of the lead with 55 seconds to play. Elijah Jackson-Anderson ran for two scores for Grand Blanc, and Zak Ahern ran for all four for Rockford (11-1). Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Regional Roundup Rochester Adams 14, West Bloomfield 13 This was closer than Adams’ 35-17 opening-night win over the reigning Division 1 champion, and required the Highlanders (12-0) to come back from a 13-0 halftime deficit while holding the Lakers (10-2) scoreless over the final two quarters. Sterling Heights Stevenson 27, Macomb Dakota 20 This also was a rematch, with Stevenson (10-2) adding to its Week 5 win over Dakota (8-4) thanks in part to a 90-yard fumble return TD by Jordan Ramsey. Belleville 12, Dearborn Fordson 7 The Tigers (11-1) clinched their fourth-straight Regional title with a second win this season over Fordson (9-3), with freshman Bryce Underwood throwing two touchdown passes to Deshaun Lee.

11-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Traverse City Central 42, Caledonia 14 Not much has slowed the Trojans (11-1) over the last three months, and they claimed their second-straight Regional title amid a blizzard with Josh Burnham leading the way with four rushing touchdowns. The Fighting Scots had been giving up only 13 points per game, but Central put up at least 42 for the sixth straight week. Caledonia finished 10-2, their winningest season since 2008.  Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Regional Roundup South Lyon 29, Portage Central 23 (OT) The Lions (12-0) scored and converted a two-point pass with 18 seconds left in regulation to force overtime, then went on to clinch their first Regional title since 2004. Portage Central (9-3) finished its winningest run since 2016. Livonia Franklin 43, Waterford Mott 26 The Patriots’ story just keeps getting better as they improved to 7-5 with their fourth-straight win. Mott finished a nice turnaround season at 7-5 after going 2-4 a year ago. Warren De La Salle Collegiate 45, Roseville 14 The Pilots (11-0) have won all but one of their games this season by double digits, and this one ranks high as Roseville (7-5) had given up more than 15 points once this fall and had scored fewer than 35 points only three times.

11-Player Division 3

HEADLINER Mason 20, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 17 Freshman Cason Carswell’s touchdown pass to Derek Badgley with 10 seconds to play lifted the Bulldogs (10-2) to their first Regional championship and first 10-win season. Carswell threw for two scores total, and Mason’s defense slowed a Brother Rice offense that had averaged 30 points per game entering the evening. The Warriors (8-4) were coming off their first District title since 2014 and finished with their winningest campaign since that fall. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Regional Roundup DeWitt 42, Cedar Springs 14 The reigning champion Panthers (11-1) scored the first 28 points in earning their fourth-straight Regional title. Cedar Springs finished 9-3, its only losses to teams that also won District championships. St. Joseph 49, Parma Western 13 The Bears are becoming one of the playoffs’ most intriguing bounce-back stories, having now won their first Regional title since 2007 after entering the tournament with four straight defeats. Western (8-4) also entered the postseason off a loss before winning its second District title in four years. Detroit Martin Luther King 28, Allen Park 7 Dante Moore threw three first-half touchdown passes, and the Crusaders (11-1) held Allen Park scoreless until the fourth quarter. The Jaguars finished 9-3 for the third time in four seasons.

11-Player Division 4

HEADLINER Chelsea 27, Detroit Country Day 20 Arguably the most jaw-dropping play of the weekend decided this Regional Final, as Chelsea blocked a late Country Day field goal attempt and Jason Skoczylas brought it back for the game-winning touchdown. Chelsea (12-0) advanced to the Semifinals for the fourth consecutive season, with this their first single-digit win of the fall. The reigning champion Yellowjackets (7-4) had played in the last two Division 4 Finals. Click for more from the Ann Arbor News.

Regional Roundup Hudsonville Unity Christian 53, Cadillac 22 The Crusaders (12-0) reached 50 points for the fifth-straight week while ending the season for last year’s Division 4 runner-up – although the Vikings (9-3) did finish with their most wins since 2014. Edwardsburg 28, Grand Rapids South Christian 14 The Sailors (8-4) were able to hold the Eddies to their fewest points scored this season, but Edwardsburg (12-0) continued its streak of all double-digit wins this fall. Freeland 42, Croswell-Lexington 22 The Falcons (11-1) repeated as Regional champions, pulling away with 20 unanswered points in the second quarter. The Pioneers (10-2) hadn’t fallen since Week 1 and finished with double-digit wins for the first time since 2012.

11-Player Division 5

HEADLINER Frankenmuth 33, Kingsley 18 The Eagles (12-0) repeated as Regional champs by scoring the game’s final 19 points over the last 20 minutes. The teams combined for only 378 yards and Kingsley (10-2) had given up more than 20 points only one other time this fall. But Frankenmuth’s Cole Lindow scored both of his touchdowns during that closing run and managed 127 yards on the ground. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

Regional Roundup Grand Rapids Catholic Central 25, Muskegon Oakridge 6 The Cougars (12-0) navigated a blizzard as well to win a sixth-straight Regional title as both teams scored season lows. Oakridge finished 9-3, all three defeats to District champs. Portland 21, Kalamazoo United 0 The Raiders are headed back to the Semifinals for the first time since 2018 after shutting down a Titans offense that averaged 39 points per game heading into the day. United finished 8-4. Marine City 21, Corunna 14 The Mariners (12-0) still haven’t given up more than 14 points this season, holding off a late rally this time to win their second Regional title in four years. Corunna (7-5) concluded its best season since 2016.

11-Player Division 6

HEADLINER Lansing Catholic 31, Montague 13 The reigning champion Wildcats scored first, but Lansing Catholic (11-1) then ran off 31 unanswered points on the way to earning a third-straight Regional title. Montague finished 8-4, having rebounded to win a fifth-straight District title after losing its final two games of the regular season. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Regional Roundup Standish-Sterling 34, Calumet 7 The Panthers continued another of the incredible turnarounds this fall, improving to 10-2 with their first Regional title since 2008 after going 1-6 last season. Calumet’s nine-game winning streak was halted, but the Copper Kings rebounded impressively after an 0-2 start. Michigan Center 27, Clinton 14 After falling in a Regional Final last season, the Cardinals (11-1) took the next step earning their first Semifinal berth and did so against last season’s Division 6 runner-up. Clinton finished 9-3. Warren Michigan Collegiate 38, Ecorse 16 The Cougars also followed up a Regional loss last season by advancing this time, scoring the most points given up by an Ecorse defense that had allowed only 11 per game on average. The Raiders finished 8-4, improving on their 2-5 finish from a season ago.

11-Player Division 7

HEADLINER Lawton 41, Muskegon Catholic Central 22 The Blue Devils are enjoying their best season, and this might have been the highlight so far. Lawton won its first Regional title, handing the perennial power Crusaders (10-2) just the second defeat of their best season since 2016. Lawton (12-0) already had set a program record for wins with the District Final victory the week before. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Regional Roundup Traverse City St. Francis 48, Ishpeming Westwood 20 The reigning Division 7 runner-up Gladiators (12-0) broke away in the second half, outscoring the Patriots 27-6 during the final two quarters. Westwood finished 10-2, its first season with double-digit wins, and also earned its first District title. Pewamo-Westphalia 20, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 0 The Pirates (12-0) posted their fifth shutout of the season, lowering their points allowed average to 5.6 per game. Laker finished 9-3, five wins better than a season ago. Jackson Lumen Christi 35, Detroit Loyola 18 The Titans (11-1) won their fifth Regional title in six seasons, outscoring the Bulldogs 14-0 during the second half. Loyola finished 6-5, having reached the Regional Finals for the third-straight season despite opening 2-3.

Beal City/Carson City-Crystal football

11-Player Division 8

HEADLINER Hudson 8, White Pigeon 0 The Tigers’ defense came through again when it counted most, posting its seventh shutout as they won their first Regional title since 2011. Hudson (12-0) lowered its points allowed average to 5.8 per game, stopping an offense that averaged 38 points per entering the day. White Pigeon finished 10-2, reaching double-digit wins for the first time since 1980. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Regional Roundup Beal City 34, Carson City-Crystal 14 The Aggies (11-1) have won 11 straight and now their second Regional title in three seasons. The Eagles (10-2) reached double-digit wins for the first time since 2013. Ubly 65, Breckenridge 6 The reigning Division 8 runner-up Bearcats (12-0) are a win away from returning to Ford Field after going over 50 points for the fifth time in 11 games played on the field (one win was by forfeit). Breckenridge finished 9-3 with league and District titles. Ottawa Lake Whiteford 38, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 12 The Bobcats (11-1) are headed back to the Semifinals for the first time since 2017. Everest finished 9-3, reaching nine wins for the fifth time in six seasons.

Second Half’s weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTOS [1] DeWitt's Bryce Debri (21) works to pull away from a defender's grasp during his team's Division 3 win over Cedar Springs. [2] Beal City's Cayden Smith (19) attempts to elude a Carson City-Crystal defender in a Division 8 Regional Final victory. (Photos by Jamie McNinch [1] and High School Sports Scene [2].)