Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

1st & Goal: 2022 Week 2 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 1, 2022

Week 1 of this football season, as is annually the process, was filled with teams grabbing our attention with strong and often unexpected first impressions.

MI Student AidWeek 2 is the beginning of making those impressions stick.

We’ll be watching as 245 games are played Thursday, 50 more Friday and two Saturday. Click for the full schedule from MHSAA.com and check out the broadcast schedule from MHSAA.tv.

Bay & Thumb

East Lansing (1-0) at Fenton (1-0), Thursday

Both were among Week 1 winners to give the strongest notice, with Fenton defeating Midland Dow in a big way and East Lansing going on the road and downing Portage Central. The Trojans won last year’s matchup 33-7 on the way to finishing 7-4 overall, but this also looks early like a much-improved Tigers team from the one that ended 2021 at 4-5.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Lake (1-0) at Cass City (1-0), New Lothrop (1-0) at Chesaning (1-0), Frankenmuth (1-0) at Saginaw Swan Valley (0-1). FRIDAY Detroit Catholic Central (0-1) at Davison (1-0).

Greater Detroit

Southfield Arts & Technology (1-0) at Clarkston (0-1), Thursday

Southfield A&T made perhaps the most stunning entrance of all Week 1, defeating Detroit Cass Tech 56-54 in overtime with junior quarterback Isaiah Marshall throwing six touchdown passes and running for two more scores. Up next are the Wolves, who lost 28-21 to Davison last week but won last season’s Southfield matchup 56-27. Sidenote: The last six years these two were in the same Oakland Activities Association division, and this season they are not.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Parma Western (1-0) at Detroit Country Day (1-0), Croswell-Lexington (1-0) at Richmond (1-0), Rochester Adams (1-0) at Rochester (0-1). FRIDAY Muskegon (1-0) at Warren De La Salle Collegiate (1-0).

Mid-Michigan

Portland (1-0) at DeWitt (1-0), Thursday

The Raiders have won both recent meetings between these Lansing area powers, in 2019 and then 20-17 a year ago on the way to the Division 5 Semifinals. Portland opened with a big win over Ovid-Elsie, while DeWitt – the reigning Division 3 runner-up – put up an especially strong defensive performance in defeating Haslett last week at University of Michigan. With both expected to do big things again, this one should benefit both in playoff points whichever team comes out on top.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Mason (1-0) at Holt (0-1), Standish-Sterling (1-0) at Ithaca (1-0), Williamston (1-0) at Lansing Catholic (0-1). FRIDAY Midland (1-0) at Mount Pleasant (1-0).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Oscoda (1-0) at Maple City Glen Lake (0-1), Thursday

The Owls joined the Northern Michigan Football League last fall, playing in the Legacy division, and this will be their first matchup with the annually-contending Lakers as Glen Lake moved to the Legacy this season. Oscoda missed the playoffs last year for the first time in five, but finished on a four-game winning streak and opened last week with a solid win over Houghton Lake. The Lakers are coming off a similar situation, having won their final three regular-season games last fall to reach the playoffs at 4-5, but they’re coming off a defeat against Kalkaska.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Kingsley (1-0) at Gaylord (1-0), Frankfort (1-0) at Mancelona (1-0). FRIDAY Lapeer (1-0) at Traverse City Central (1-0), Cheboygan (1-0) at Boyne City (1-0).

Southeast & Border

Traverse City St. Francis (1-0) at Jackson Lumen Christi (0-1), Friday

These two were both one win away from facing each other in last season’s Division 7 Final, as both saw their seasons end in Semifinals on opposite sides of the bracket. They very well could meet twice this season – St. Francis is ranked No. 2 and Lumen Christi No. 3 in Division 7, with the latter coming off a 12-7 loss to top-ranked New Lothrop. The Gladiators, meanwhile, opened with a league win over Ogemaw Heights.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Saline (1-0) at Ann Arbor Huron (0-1), Reading (1-0) at Grass Lake (1-0), Constantine (1-0) at Hudson (1-0), Ottawa Lake Whiteford (1-0) at Ida (0-1). FRIDAY.

Southwest Corridor

Centreville (1-0) at Schoolcraft (1-0), Thursday

The memory of Schoolcraft’s uncharacteristic 3-5 finish a year ago is fading quickly after a major shut out last week of Comstock, and defeating the Bulldogs would further add momentum to the fresh start. The Bulldogs are ranked No. 6 in Division 8 coming off a solid win over Union City, and they defeated Schoolcraft last season 28-7.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Plainwell (1-0) at Coldwater (0-1), Stevensville Lakeshore (0-1) at Kalamazoo United (0-1), Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (1-0) at Portage Central (0-1), Hudsonville Unity Christian (0-1) at St. Joseph (0-1).

Upper Peninsula

Negaunee (1-0) at Calumet (0-1), Thursday

It took just one week for the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper race to get really interesting, with reigning co-champ Westwood falling to Houghton and last season’s third-place finisher Negaunee taking a nice step by defeating 2021 fourth-place finisher Iron Mountain. Calumet was the other co-champ last fall and also lost last week, but nonleague against Gladstone. Negaunee’s 35-21 win over the Copper Kings last fall helped Westwood eventually share the title; this time, a Miners win would make Negaunee a strong favorite just two weeks into the season.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY West Iron County (0-1) at Bark River-Harris (1-0), Kingsford (1-0) at Gladstone (1-0), Iron Mountain (0-1) at Ishpeming Westwood (0-1), Grayling (1-0) at Sault Ste. Marie (1-0).

West Michigan

Muskegon Mona Shores (1-0) at Rockford (1-0), Thursday

This might be the statewide game of the weekend, as these two perennial powers meet for the first time since 2018. Rockford is ranked No. 4 in Division 1, coming off a big win over East Grand Rapids. Mona Shores is No. 2 in Division 2 after a similarly-solid performance against Wisconsin’s Manitowoc Lincoln. Obviously the rosters have completely turned over, but the Sailors did own a 3-2 advantage in five games against Rockford from 2014-18.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Byron Center (1-0) at Grandville (1-0), Muskegon Oakridge (1-0) at Muskegon Catholic Central (1-0). FRIDAY Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (0-1) at East Kentwood (0-1), Zeeland West (1-0) at Cedar Springs (0-1).

8-Player

Breckenridge (1-0) at Merrill (1-0), Thursday

Despite watching its enrollment fall 30 percent over the last six years, Breckenridge became one of the strongest teams in 11-player Division 8 going 56-11 from 2016-21 before making the move to 8-player this fall. The Huskies edged Fulton 40-36 last season and now get a familiar opponent in Merrill, which played in the same league as Breckenridge from 2016-19 before switching formats. The Vandals opened last week with a significant shut out of Webberville.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian (1-0) at Indian River Inland Lakes (1-0), Camden-Frontier (1-0) at Pittsford (1-0). FRIDAY Newberry (1-0) at Munising (1-0), Au Gres-Sims (1-0) at Rogers City (1-0).

Second Half’s weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO Redford Union’s Kyren Ware (7) breaks through the Pewamo-Westphalia defense during last week’s 26-6 victory that broke the Pirates’ 16-game winning streak. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)