Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
1st & Goal: 2022 Week 2 Review
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 6, 2022
We don’t keep track of losing streaks at the MHSAA. But we’re plenty glad to celebrate teams after those streaks have been broken.
Holland West Ottawa and Litchfield surely are enjoying these first few weeks, as both have started the fall 2-0 after multiple seasons without a victory.
Theirs are among several potential turnaround stories beginning to be told, and we highlight more below as we review Week 2 across Michigan.
Bay & Thumb
HEADLINER Lapeer 56, Traverse City Central 42 The Lightning (2-0) scored first and impressively on the road against last season’s Division 2 runner-up. Quarterback Zak Olejniczak ran for a touchdown and threw for seven more, including four scoring passes to Connor Brown. Although Central (1-1) went over 40 points for the second week in a row, Lapeer’s defense was the difference during the fourth quarter with two interceptions and a fumble recovery. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Watch list Swartz Creek 36, Lake Fenton 14 The Dragons are 2-0 for the first time since 2018 and after starting 1-3 a year ago but still eventually making the playoffs. This win avenged a 13-0 loss to Lake Fenton (0-2) from last fall.
On the move Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 39, Cass City 12 The Lakers (2-0) have opened with two commanding wins as they head into Greater Thumb Conference West play, while Cass City is 1-1 heading into GTC East action. Standish-Sterling 31, Ithaca 27 The Panthers (2-0) trailed throughout the first half before making their move during the second to earn a one-score win over Ithaca (1-1) for the second-straight season. Marlette 38, Unionville-Sebewaing 12 Marlette (2-0) last played USA in a 2020 playoff opener, and the Red Raiders hadn’t come within 40 of the Patriots (0-2) two of the three times they’d faced each other over the last seven seasons.
Greater Detroit
HEADLINER Clarkston 62, Southfield Arts & Technology 56 Southfield A&T (1-1) is becoming must-see football this fall – and that’s a strong vote of confidence for Clarkston after the Wolves held on to move to 1-1. Warriors quarterback Isaiah Marshall is up to nine touchdowns passing and five rushing over two games, but Clarkston running back Ethan Clark ran for four scores as the Wolves put up the game’s last points during the final minute to prevail. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
Clarkston senior Mike Hein with the go-ahead touchdown with 25 seconds to go in the 4th quarter as the Wolves beat Southfield A&T 62-56 on Thursday.
Powered by @MIArmyGuard @themikehein8 @TheeJungle @ClarkstonWolves pic.twitter.com/bm1fTHPUDz
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsmich) September 2, 2022
Watch list Birmingham Seaholm 21, Detroit U-D Jesuit 20 (OT) The Maples won one game a year ago, but are up to 2-0 after edging the Division 2 No. 6-ranked Cubs (1-1).
On the move Oxford 17, Birmingham Groves 14 On an emotion-filled night at Oxford, the Wildcats (1-1) opened their home schedule by defeating the No. 10 team in Division 2, sending the Falcons to 1-1. Detroit Catholic Central 44, Davison 34 The early hierarchy in Division 1 should see movement as Davison (1-1) was ranked No. 6 and DCC (1-1) was unranked before defeating the Cardinals for the second-straight season. Warren De La Salle Collegiate 49, Muskegon 16 These two have a combined seven appearances in MHSAA Finals over the last five seasons, which on its own to explains the heaviness of this matchup and significance of this win for the Pilots (2-0) over the Big Reds (1-1)
Mid-Michigan
HEADLINER DeWitt 39, Portland 34 This has become one of the best games every fall in the Lansing area – this time DeWitt entered No. 2 in Division 3 and Portland was No. 4 in Division 5 – and the 2022 chapter was another classic. The Panthers (2-0) won for the first time in three recent matchups with the Raiders (1-1) as Elliott Larner took a handoff and found Bryce Kurncz on a 22-yard halfback pass for the game-winning score with 14 seconds to play. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Watch list Durand 56, Montrose 52 The Railroaders have strung together three straight playoff seasons but have something extra to be excited about so far this fall. Durand (2-0) defeated Montrose (1-1) for the first time since 2009, perhaps the best win since the program’s turnaround got rolling after an 0-9 finish in 2017.
On the move East Lansing 28, Fenton 14 The Trojans (2-0) have loaded their nonleague slate again, and after posting one of Week 1’s most impressive debuts doubled up a Tigers team that also had opened in a big way. Mount Pleasant 51, Midland 29 The Oilers’ immediate schedule gets no easier with Cadillac and Traverse City Central over the next two weeks, but Mount Pleasant (2-0) has started as impressively as anyone in the Saginaw Valley League North as Midland (1-1) also was among the Week 1 high achievers. Williamston 22, Lansing Catholic 0 Although the Cougars (0-2) are off to a rough start, this remains a win over a reigning Finals champion for the Hornets (2-0).
Northern Lower Peninsula
HEADLINER Gaylord 17, Kingsley 16 If Gaylord’s Week 1 one-point win over Lake Fenton turned a few heads, the encore against Kingsley (1-1) should have all of northern Michigan taking notice. At 2-0, Gaylord already has won as many games as it did any of the last three seasons – but getting the second victory this fall over a Stags team that had six losses total over the last four seasons gives this story some statewide spark. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.
Watch list Traverse City St. Francis 42, Jackson Lumen Christi 35 A matchup of 2021 Division 7 semifinalists played out like one, with the Gladiators winning the fourth quarter to move to 2-0 while sending Lumen Christi to 0-2, but with those losses to the Nos. 1 and 2 teams in the statewide rankings.
On the move Alpena 18, Marquette 16 The Wildcats (1-1) were 2-14 over their last two seasons but could be in for some major improvement after avenging last season’s 49-14 loss to Marquette (0-2). Maple City Glen Lake 34, Oscoda 28 The Lakers (1-1) bounced back from a disappointing opener to win a game that could come into play as the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy standings sort out. The Owls (1-1) should still have a part to play too over the next six weeks. Elk Rapids 20, East Jordan 13 The Elks (2-0) had won a high of two games over the past three seasons, and they’ve equaled that already with this one over a Red Devils program that’s 0-2 but went 6-3 a year ago.
Southeast & Border
HEADLINER Hudson 22, Constantine 20 The Tigers (2-0) ran their overall winning streak to 16 with one of the best regular-season victories of the run. Hudson trailed by 20 points late in the third quarter before coming all the way back against a Constantine program that had won 15 straight regular-season games and remains ranked No. 6 in Division 6. Hudson, last season’s Division 8 champion, is No. 3 in Division 7. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.
Watch list Grosse Ile 21, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 14 The Red Devils (2-0) won just two games a year ago, and hadn’t defeated the Falcons (0-2) since 2018.
On the move Manchester 29, Addison 26 The Flying Dutchmen (2-0) followed up a solid win over Whitmore Lake in the opener by defeating three-time reigning Cascades Conference champion Addison (1-1) for the first time since 2016. Saline 35, Ann Arbor Huron 24 This matchup ended up deciding last season’s Southeastern Conference Red championship, and Saline (2-0) is off to the right start as it looks to repeat while Huron (0-2) is coming off losses against two potential Division 1 contenders. Hanover-Horton 27, Michigan Center 20 The Comets (1-1) have had a tough run over most of the last decade, but started Cascades play by defeating a Michigan Center team that’s 0-2 but made the Division 6 Semifinals last year.
Southwest Corridor
HEADLINER St. Joseph 41, Hudsonville Unity Christian 28 The Bears loaded their nonleague schedule with two opponents that finished the 2021 season at Ford Field. They opened by falling to last year’s Division 2 runner-up Traverse City Central, but came back from a double-digit deficit to claim this win over the reigning Division 4 runner-up. St. Joseph may be the favorite and is certain among the few entering Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference play, while Unity (0-2) should still contend as well in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Blue after opening with a pair of losses to top competition. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.
Watch list Kalamazoo Loy Norrix 8, Kalamazoo Central 7 The Knights (1-1) have struggled more than most over the last 10 seasons, but this was their first win since 2019 and first over rival Central since 2017.
On the move Kalamazoo United 33, Stevensville Lakeshore 27 The Titans (1-1) reversed last season’s 41-19 loss to Lakeshore (0-2) as it bounced back from a season-opening defeat to Berrien Springs. Niles 28, Buchanan 18 The Vikings (1-1) also bounced back from a season-opening loss to hand the Bucks (1-1) their first defeat. Schoolcraft 22, Centreville 2 It’s fair to say defense reigned but both should score some playoff points as these two go on to successful seasons. Schoolcraft improved to 2-0, and Centreville is 1-1.
Upper Peninsula
HEADLINER Negaunee 40, Calumet 15 The Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper sent four teams to the playoffs last season. Negaunee was one and now has defeated two more, with Calumet also the reigning league co-champion. The victory over the Copper Kings (0-2) actually was the Miners’ second straight, and they don’t face the other co-champion Ishpeming Westwood until Week 9 – although Week 8 opponent Houghton also is making some noise at 2-0 and becoming one to watch in that league. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.
Watch list St. Ignace 48, Johannesburg-Lewiston 0 The Saints (2-0) have worked through some tough seasons of late as well, winning a combined three games over the last two years. But they’re riding some momentum this time as the schedule begins getting tougher this week.
On the move Gladstone 34, Kingsford 20 The Braves (2-0) have simply impressed over their first two wins, this one over the reigning co-champion of the Great Northern Conference. Iron Mountain 34, Ishpeming Westwood 0 As noted above, Westwood (0-2) was a Copper co-champion last season, and Iron Mountain bounced back after falling Week 1 to Negaunee. Sault Ste. Marie 16, Grayling 7 The Blue Devils (2-0) had fallen 36-32 last season in their first NMFL Legends meeting with Grayling (1-0).
West Michigan
HEADLINER Rockford 31, Muskegon Mona Shores 27 The Rams (2-0) – No. 6 in Division 1 – came all the way back after trailing 20-0 late in the second quarter, as quarterback Mac VandenHout threw three touchdown passes including the go-ahead score 59 yards to Brody Thompson with 4:07 to play. Mona Shores, No. 4 in Division 2, moved to 1-1. Click for more from FOX 17.
Watch list East Kentwood 19, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 17 The Falcons (1-1) are playing for their first winning season since 2019 and looking strong after also opening with a close defeat against Muskegon. East Kentwood had lost to Brother Rice (0-2) last season 33-0.
On the move Grandville 45, Byron Center 27 That’s two weeks and two notable wins from the Bulldogs (2-0), who followed up a season-opening victory over Grand Blanc by defeating another 2021 playoff team in Byron Center (1-1). Holland West Ottawa 21, Portage Northern 10 The Panthers are 2-0 after bringing a 26-game losing streak into this season. Grand Rapids Christian 41, Fruitport 34 The Eagles (1-1) trailed by 27 points late in the first half before scoring the final 34 points of the game to get past the Trojans (1-1).
8-Player
HEADLINER Litchfield 36, Burr Oak 14 The Terriers (2-0) are one of the best stories of the early going this season, opening with a pair of victories after losing 20 straight games from 2019-21. Litchfield hadn’t defeated Burr Oak (0-2) since 2011 and lost their matchup last season 44-22. Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News.
Watch list Merrill 36, Breckenridge 14 This could end up developing into a great rivalry game, and Merrill (2-0) now owns a 1-0 lead in the 8-player series after Breckenridge (1-1) won their last four meetings as 11-player teams.
On the move Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 51, Indian River Inland Lakes 18 The Mustangs (2-0) are another team that has been especially impressive over the first two weeks, this time adding 51 points to the 65 they put up against Suttons Bay in the season opener. Inland Lakes (1-1) gave up that many only twice in going 10-1 last season. Pittsford 28, Camden-Frontier 6 The Wildcats (2-0) could quickly become contenders with their switch to 8-player, and they’ve looked good so far outscoring their first two opponents by a combined 78-6. Munising 14, Newberry 0 The Mustangs’ defense deserves plenty of praise after stopping a Newberry offense that scored 58 points last week and averaged 36 points per game a year ago.
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PHOTOS (Top) A Mount Pleasant ball carrier works to pull away from a Midland defender during the Oilers' Week 2 win. (2) An official readies for a play during Sanford Meridian's 14-0 win over Shepherd. (3) Paw Paw runs the ball on the way to its first victory, 33-27 over Otsego. (4) A Morrice ball carrier pulls away during a 68-14 win over Vestaburg. (Top and photos 2 and 4 by High School Sports Scene; photo 3 by Gary Shook.)