Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
1st & Goal: 2022 Week 3 Review
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 12, 2022
At first glance from a mile-high view last week, Michigan’s Week 3 high school football schedule didn’t have a ton of matchups that popped off the page.
But when there are only nine regular-season games and only 288 teams that move on to the playoffs, every matchup matters much more.
And of course, plenty found a way to grab our attention. We check in on 45 below.
Bay & Thumb
HEADLINER Croswell-Lexington 34, Armada 12 The reigning Blue Water Area Conference champion Pioneers (3-0) took a big-time step toward a possible repeat, as Armada (2-1) has received a lot of attention for its turnaround over the last two seasons including its fast start this fall. Croswell-Lexington quarterback Gavin Espinoza starred as his team ran its league winning streak to 12. Click for more from The Sports Report.
Watch list Saginaw Heritage 52, Grand Blanc 40 The Hawks are 3-0 for the first time since 2006 and have put up more than 50 points every game, with 52 the most Grand Blanc (1-2) has given up since 2019.
On the move Davison 49, Traverse City Central 14 The Cardinals (2-1) bounced back from a Week 2 loss to Detroit Catholic Central to send the reigning Division 2 runner-up to 1-2. Bay City Western 21, Traverse City West 0 The Warriors (2-1) welcomed Traverse City West (1-2) to the Saginaw Valley League, earning their first shutout since 2019. Saginaw Swan Valley 27, Essexville Garber 21 After a tough start but against two league championship contenders, Swan Valley (1-2) is on the board with this win over the Dukes (2-1). If history holds, they may see each other again in the playoffs for the fourth-straight season.
Greater Detroit
HEADLINER Clarkston 45, Rochester Adams 35 A score-fest during the first half – Clarkston led 42-28 at the break – did eventually slow down as the Wolves (2-1) handed the reigning Division 1 runner-up Highlanders their first regular-season loss since 2019. The win also gives Clarkston an important edge to start the Oakland Activities Association Red schedule, as Adams (2-1) rejoined the division after winning the OAA White a year ago. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
🏈 Here's the highlights of the Clarkston at Rochester Adams game that aired on Football Fridays Overtime powered by STATE CHAMPS! on @BallySportsDET #MIFTBL | @ThinkFordFirst pic.twitter.com/jFigQiOms6
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsmich) September 10, 2022
Watch list Gibraltar Carlson 35, Allen Park 6 The Marauders (3-0) jumped to 9-2 last season, but with 28 and 21-point losses to Allen Park. This win was Carlson’s first in the series since 2018.
On the move Detroit Catholic Central 45, DeWitt 38 (OT) This looks great for both teams; DCC (2-1) for holding on against another of the state’s top programs, and the young but talented Panthers (2-1) for pushing a Division 1 power to overtime. Detroit Country Day 28, Warren Michigan Collegiate 20 All three of Country Day’s wins have come against 2021 playoff qualifiers, with Michigan Collegiate (2-1) last season’s Division 7 runner-up. Plymouth 16, Canton 0 After back-to-back one-win seasons, Plymouth (1-2) earned the first of this fall to avenge losing to rival Canton (1-2) by 50 a year ago.
Mid-Michigan
HEADLINER Hastings 24, Jackson Lumen Christi 21 The Saxons shared last season’s Interstate 8 Athletic Conference championship, a 33-22 loss to Lumen Christi keeping Hastings from the outright title. But the Saxons held off the Titans this time for their second win in the series over the last three seasons – and sent Lumen Christi to 0-3, although those losses have come to teams that sit a combined 8-1. Click for more from The Hastings Banner.
Watch list Ithaca 48, Saginaw Nouvel 6 The Yellowjackets (2-1) started their league title 13-peat pursuit well, stopping a Panthers offense that had scored a combined 93 points over their 2-0 start. Ithaca, currently in the Tri-Valley Conference West 2, has won outright or shared its league’s championship every season beginning with 2009.
On the move Mount Pleasant 27, Cadillac 24 The Oilers (3-0) ran their regular-season winning streak to 15 with their closest victory of the run. Cadillac (1-2), notably, has two one-score defeats. Holt 14, Grand Ledge 6 The Rams’ rebound may be starting as Holt (1-2) ran its winning streak over the rival Comets (2-1) to three. New Lothrop 55, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 0 The Hornets (3-0) are among the most impressive teams in the state through the first third of the regular season, as Everest was 9-3 last fall – but is off to a 1-2 start this time after opening with three 2021 playoff teams.
Northern Lower Peninsula
HEADLINER Boyne City 34, Grayling 6 These two go back most of the last two decades as league opponents, then ended up in separate leagues the last two seasons but faced off in the playoffs, splitting those games with Boyne City winning by a point last year. They are still in different divisions of the Northern Michigan Football League, but the Ramblers (3-0) will enter Leaders play with plenty of momentum coming off their best defensive performance. Grayling will take a 1-2 record into the Legends division. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.
Watch list Elk Rapids 30, Tawas 14 The Elks (3-0) have now won as many games this season as over the last two combined, and have yet to allow more than two touchdowns this fall.
On the move Kingsley 30, Ogemaw Heights 20 The Stags (2-1) bounced back from a one-point Week 2 loss to Gaylord to set up this week’s matchup with rival Traverse City St. Francis. Traverse City St. Francis 49, Benzie Central 12 The Gladiators (3-0) also are riding high after moving to 2-0 in the NMFL Legends. Lake City 44, Manton 0 After losing the season opener to Cheboygan, Lake City (2-1) hasn’t allowed a point and handed Manton (2-1) its first defeat after the Rangers had topped 30 points both of their first two games.
Southeast & Border
HEADLINER Tecumseh 35, Pinckney 14 An early slate of three opponents that made the playoffs last season might have seemed a little daunting as Tecumseh was starting this season pursuing its first winning record since 2013. But Tecumseh (3-0) is setting the pace, adding this win to victories over Michigan Center and Richland Gull Lake to start the fall. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.
Watch list Carleton Airport 33, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 14 The Jets (3-0) are coming off back-to-back four-win seasons but have nearly equaled that victory total already, with this one also avenging a 35-26 loss to SMCC from last season.
On the move Addison 48, Hanover-Horton 39 The Panthers (2-1) bounced back from their Week 2 loss by grounding a Comets team that was coming off a big win. Clinton 18, Ida 6 The Redwolves (3-0) have added a solid Lenawee Country Athletic Association win to a big overall start, as Ida was the runner-up in the league a year ago. Napoleon 30, Manchester 25 Add the Pirates (3-0) to the list of contenders in the Cascades Conference after their most impressive win so far, as they handed Manchester (2-1) its lone defeat.
Southwest Corridor
HEADLINER Portage Central 16, Battle Creek Lakeview 13 Not so fast, to anyone who had counted out Portage Central after its 0-2 start. The Mustangs began Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference play with this win over the only league team that had begun 2-0. Central (1-2) came back from a 13-0 halftime deficit to catch the Spartans (2-1). Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.
Watch list Sturgis 55, Plainwell 35 The Trojans (2-1) defeated Plainwell (2-1) for first time since 2015, with Jacob Thompson scoring six touchdowns and throwing for a seventh.
On the move Constantine 47, Lawton 21 The Falcons (2-1) put Lawton’s regular-season winning streak of 12 games to an end with 33 unanswered points. Schoolcraft 33, Kalamazoo United 29 The Eagles trailed by multiple scores but went ahead during the final minutes to get to 3-0. Benton Harbor 28, Muskegon Catholic Central 20 The Tigers (2-1) broke a three-game losing streak against MCC (1-2) and equaled their win total from all of last season.
Upper Peninsula
HEADLINER Gladstone 28, Menominee 6 Make that three 2021 league champions that Gladstone (3-0) has defeated to begin this fall, as the Braves look to be in control in the Great Northern Conference after defeating last season’s co-champions Kingsford and Menominee in successive weeks. Gladstone hadn’t defeated Menominee since 2018, and fell by a point in last year’s meeting. Click for more from RRN Sports.
Watch list Iron Mountain 28, Houghton 6 After a five-point loss to Negaunee in the season opener, the Mountaineers have dominated their next two opponents by a combined score of 62-6. Houghton (2-1) had given up only 18 points total over its first two games.
On the move St. Ignace 28, Frankfort 0 The Saints’ first two wins were over teams that didn’t win a game last year or yet this fall, but defeating Frankfort (2-1) brings another level of impressiveness to St. Ignace’s 3-0 start. Marquette 17, Gaylord 14 The Blue Devils (2-1) were one of the most intriguing teams in the state after two weeks, but Marquette (1-2) pushed past after losing both of its first two games by one score. Escanaba 33, Petoskey 30 After losses to a pair of tough teams to start, Escanaba (1-2) picked up its first victory and will eclipse last year’s win total with another one.
West Michigan
HEADLINER Grand Rapids Catholic Central 21, Cedar Springs 20 The Cougars’ now 40-game winning streak received its toughest challenge yet as GRCC (3-0) needed a late stop on a 2-point conversion attempt to open the Ottawa-Kent Conference Blue schedule with another win. It was the third one-pointer during the streak; Cedar Springs was part of another when GRCC won last year’s meeting 41-40. Click for more form FOX 17.
Watch list Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 21, Byron Center 13 The Rangers (3-0) may have taken a big step toward repeating in the O-K White, as Byron Center finished third a year ago.
On the move Hudsonville Unity Christian 28, Coopersville 27 After a pair of defeats to strong teams to start the season, Unity started off the O-K Blue schedule right by edging the Broncos (2-1). Ludington 7, Fremont 0 The Orioles (3-0) won a matchup of undefeated teams in the new West Michigan Conference Lakes, with likely favorite Muskegon Oakridge up next. Muskegon 28, Muskegon Reeths-Puffer 20 This was the closest game between these two since 2011, but the Big Reds held on to start off the O-K Green schedule.
8-Player
HEADLINER Norway 40, Lake Linden-Hubbell 26 The Knights (3-0) are climbing the ladder of contenders after getting past another challenger in the Great Lakes Eight Conference West and with also-undefeated Crystal Falls Forest Park up next. Norway reached 40 points for the third time in three games to hand Lake Linden-Hubbell (2-1) its lone defeat. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.
Watch list Bridgman 56, Mendon 50 The Bees (3-0) scored 14 unanswered points during the fourth quarter to extend their winning streak to 16 and earn their second in two years over the Hornets (1-2).
On the move Lawrence 32, Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 28 The Tigers (1-2) hadn’t been close in their first two games, but found their stride in handing the Defenders (2-1) their lone defeat. Mio 46, Hillman 42 The Thunderbolts (2-1) are putting up some big offensive numbers and needed to this time again against the Tigers (1-2). New Haven Merritt 38, Bay City All Saints 30 The Mustangs (1-2) mounted a major comeback to earn their first victory.
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PHOTOS: (Top) A LeRoy Pine River ball carrier finds an opening against Evart on Friday. (Middle) An Ithaca ball carrier works to break free from a Saginaw Nouvel tackler. (Top photo by Tonya Holmes; middle photo by High School Sports Scene.)