Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

1st & Goal: 2022 Week 5 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 23, 2022

This weekend is the midpoint of this regular season, and stands to be a turning point for several teams this season.

MI Student AidEight games will match teams undefeated so far this fall. A number of others will pit league title contenders against each other, with the Port Huron and Flint areas, Detroit Catholic League, Macomb County and rural Greater Lansing enjoying some of their best annual rivalry games over the next two days.

Games are Friday unless noted. Click for the full schedule from MHSAA.com and check out the broadcast schedule from MHSAA.tv.

Bay & Thumb

Frankenmuth (4-0) at Freeland (4-0)

This has become a league matchup with statewide appeal over the last few seasons. Frankenmuth has won the last three meetings, last season’s deciding the Tri-Valley Conference 10 title. But both went on to reach MHSAA Semifinals, Freeland in Division 4 and the Eagles in Division 5. Frankenmuth has handed lone losses this fall to Goodrich and Birch Run and given up only 30 points total. Freeland’s defense literally has been one better, giving up only 29 points so far.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Flint Hamady (4-0) at Flint Beecher (2-2), Port Huron Northern (4-0) at Port Huron (3-1), Sanford Meridian (3-1) at Gladwin (4-0), Millington (4-0) at Standish Sterling (4-0).

Greater Detroit

Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (4-0) at Macomb Dakota (4-0)

This is the midpoint as well in the Macomb Area Conference Red schedule – and these are the two contenders left without a defeat. They are frequently at the top, although last season they tied for third in the league standings. Dakota has won the last three meetings (starting with the 2019 playoffs), and both have done the work to make this arguably the best matchup in Week 5. Chippewa Valley’s season-opening win over Detroit Catholic Central keeps looking better and better. Same scenario for the Cougars, who defeated Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice in Week 1 and have given up 17 points over its four victories.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY West Bloomfield (4-0) at Rochester Adams (3-1), Detroit Catholic Central (3-1) at Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (2-2), Brighton (4-0) at Northville (4-0), Detroit Central (4-0) at Detroit Southeastern (3-1).

Mid-Michigan

Bay City Western (3-1) at Mount Pleasant (4-0)

The Warriors have looked like a Saginaw Valley League North contender especially the last two weeks with 20-plus point wins over Traverse City West and Midland Dow, and was on the cusp last season while losing to Dow by a point and Mount Pleasant 31-16. Western can become the team to chase this weekend by avenging that defeat to the Oilers, who are coming off one-score wins over Cadillac and Traverse City Central. Mount Pleasant has won the last seven games in this series.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Holt (2-2) at DeWitt (2-2), Grand Blanc (2-2) at East Lansing (4-0), Pewamo-Westphalia (3-1) at Fowler (4-0), Mason (4-0) at Haslett (3-1).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Cadillac (2-2) at Gaylord (3-1)

With the Big North Conference now at four teams for football, and these two coming off wins in their league openers, this matchup will decide a share of the BNC championship. Gaylord bounced back nicely from its Week 3 loss to Marquette to defeat Petoskey last week, while Cadillac has impressive one-score losses to Midland and Mount Pleasant. The Vikings won last year’s meeting with Gaylord 22-0, their fourth-straight victory in the series.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Kalkaska (2-2) at Boyne City (4-0), East Jordan (2-2) at Maple City Glen Lake (3-1), Lake City (2-2) at McBain (2-2). SATURDAY Sault Ste. Marie (4-0) at Ogemaw Heights (2-2).

Southeast & Border

Parma Western (2-2) at Jackson Northwest (3-1)

Jackson Northwest is on the rise as its third win last week guaranteed the Mounties their best finish since 2013 and equaled their number of victories the last three seasons combined. And suddenly, Northwest could figure into the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference race with four of the other top six teams in the standings coming up over the next five weeks. Western certainly can’t be overlooked among them; its losses were by seven points to Detroit Country Day and five to Jackson Lumen Christi.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grass Lake (2-2) at Michigan Center (1-3), Hanover-Horton (2-2) at Napoleon (4-0), Petersburg Summerfield (2-2) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (4-0), Chelsea (3-1) at Adrian (3-2).

Southwest Corridor

Plainwell (3-1) at Edwardsburg (3-1)

Edwardsburg’s Wolverine Conference winning streak lives at 35, but not without two of its most significant challenges over the last six seasons. Three Rivers pushed the Eddies to within eight points in Week 2, and Edwardsburg escaped with a three-point win over Vicksburg last week thanks to a last-second field goal. Plainwell has made the playoffs nine of the last 10 seasons (plus 2020, when all teams qualified) and would be a candidate to challenge the Eddies too – although Edwardsburg won last year’s matchup 49-0.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY St. Joseph (3-1) at Portage Central (2-2), Homer (3-1) at Union City (3-1), Constantine (3-1) at Watervliet (3-1). SATURDAY South Lyon East (3-1) at Paw Paw (3-1).

Upper Peninsula

Bark River-Harris (3-1) at Iron Mountain (3-1)

Iron Mountain has won all six recent meetings, including one in the playoffs. But Bark River-Harris gave the Mountaineers their best matchup of those six last season, falling only 28-22. They play in different divisions of the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference, and both are championship contenders in their respective divisions – plus Bark River-Harris is ranked No. 6 and Iron Mountain No. 10 in Division 8 by the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Negaunee (4-0) at Ishpeming (2-2), Houghton (3-1) at Hancock (1-3), Gladstone (4-0) at Marquette (1-3), Escanaba (1-3) at Kingsford (2-2).

West Michigan

Caledonia (4-0) at Grandville (4-0)

This, along with Rockford/East Kentwood matchup below, will bring the number of teams leading the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red from four to two by Friday night’s end. The intrigue here is both are undefeated overall – plus Grandville sees Rockford next week, and Caledonia sees East Kentwood. Grandville owns a 4-2 edge in this series since Caledonia moved to the Red in 2016, but Caledonia has won two of the last three including 24-14 last fall. The Fighting Scots are stoppers; they’ve given up 28 points total so far. But opening wins over Grand Blanc and Byron Center put Grandville into the spotlight quickly this season.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Rockford (4-0) at East Kentwood (3-1), Beal City (4-0) at Evart (4-0), Ada Forest Hills Eastern (4-0) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (4-0), Zeeland West (4-0) at Muskegon (3-1).

8-Player

Brown City (4-0) at Martin (4-0)

Brown City is playing 8-player this fall for the first time and showed the fast start isn’t beginners’ luck again last week with a 58-40 win over perennial Finals contender Suttons Bay. Defeating Martin would be a similar if not more substantial accomplishment. The Clippers haven’t given up a point since Week 2 and moved up to No. 1 in Division 1 this week, while Brown City is No. 5.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Climax-Scotts (4-0) at Athens (3-1), Eau Claire (3-1) at Bridgman (4-0), Breckenridge (3-1) at Morrice (4-0). SATURDAY Merrill (4-0) at Portland St. Patrick (3-1).

Second Half’s weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO Detroit Cass Tech quarterback Leeshaun Mumpfield drops back to pass against Detroit Renaissance during a Week 3 win. (Photo by Chardonne’ U of Olivia B. Photography.)