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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

A Breckenridge ball carrier is pulled down by a Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart tackler during the Huskies’ 20-12 win on 9/30/22.

1st & Goal: 2022 Week 6 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 3, 2022

October is league title time in football, and there were plenty of celebrations all over Michigan during Week 6.

MI Student AidWe highlighted several this week, especially from the "Greater Detroit" area. Most guaranteed a share of a league championship with an opportunity to win outright coming up. Others set themselves up for a title-deciding showdown ahead, and we offered a glance at those possibilities as well. 

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Goodrich 42, Ortonville Brandon 21 The Martians (5-1) are undefeated since losing to still-unbeaten Frankenmuth in Week 1, and with this victory they claimed a share of the Flint Metro League Stars championship as well as kept the M15 jug traveling trophy after winning it back a year ago. Goodrich shared the Stars title last year and can clinch it outright this week against Lake Fenton, last season’s other co-champion. Brandon fell to 4-2 with its other defeat to Lake Fenton. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Watch list Linden 23, Swartz Creek 7 The Eagles (5-1) put themselves in line to earn at least a share of the Metro League Stripes title after entering the weekend tied with Swartz Creek (5-1) for first. Linden also tied its highest win total since 2017.

On the move Davison 52, Walled Lake Western 14 The Cardinals (5-1) handed Lakes Valley Conference leader Western (5-1) its lone defeat and equaled their 2021 win total in the process. Almont 37, Croswell-Lexington 26 With two league losses, Almont (4-2) will have a tough time winning the Blue Water Area Conference – but the Raiders are potential spoilers having knocked Croswell-Lexington (5-1) out of a tie for first. Bay City Central 22, Mount Pleasant 21 This was one of the stunners of the weekend statewide, as Central (2-4) had scored only 37 points total over their last four defeats to the Oilers (5-1) – who hadn’t lost a regular-season game in nearly two calendar years.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Macomb Dakota 21, Romeo 14 The Cougars clinched a share of the Macomb Area Conference Red title with this win over one of last season’s co-champions, taking a 14-0 lead and holding on. Dakota (6-0) had lost last year’s regular-season meeting with Romeo (4-2) but won 35-20 in a District Final rematch.

Watch list Detroit U-D Jesuit 30, Dearborn Divine Child 22 The Cubs bounced back after three-straight nonleague losses to teams a combined 15-3 to win its two Detroit Catholic League AA matchups and secure the division title. Divine Child moved to 4-2, still tying its most wins since 2017.

On the move Warren De La Salle Collegiate 28, Detroit Catholic Central 0 The Pilots (5-1) bounced back from losing their Catholic League Central opener to win their final two games and clinch a share with DCC (4-2) able to also pick up a share this week against Orchard Lake St. Mary’s. Detroit Central 45, Detroit Northwestern 6 Central (6-0) clinched a share of the Detroit Public School League Gold by holding a fifth opponent to single-digit scoring this fall. Detroit Martin Luther King 38, Detroit Renaissance 0 The Crusaders (4-1) clinched a share of the PSL Blue title with their third shutout over four league matchups. Madison Heights Bishop Foley 29, Riverview Gabriel Richard 28 Bishop Foley (6-0) earned a one-score win for the second-straight week, this time to clinch a share of the Catholic League Intersectional 1 championship. Marine City Cardinal Mooney 15, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 8 Mooney (5-1) avenged last year’s 45-3 loss to Everest (3-3) to clinch a share of the Intersectional 2 title. Center Line 37, Clawson 6 After falling in two nonleague games to start the fall, Center Line (4-2) has won its first four in the MAC Bronze to clinch a title share by handing Clawson (3-3) its first league defeat. Southgate Anderson 33, Gibraltar Carlson 28 This mini-upset, combined with Trenton’s 21-14 win over Brownstown Woodhaven, has all four of these teams with one loss in the Downriver League.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Portland 40, Charlotte 13 The Raiders (5-1) scored the game’s first 23 points on the way to clinching a share of the Capital Area Activities Conference White title. Portland and Charlotte (5-1) entered the night tied for the top spot, and the Raiders held an offense scoring 39 points per game to its season low. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Grand Ledge 56, DeWitt 49 The Comets (5-1) control their destiny in the CAAC Blue with a chance to play East Lansing in Week 9 for a share of the title, while DeWitt (3-3) fell to fifth place but with all three defeats this season by seven points or fewer.

On the move Durand 28, Gladstone 24 The Railroaders (6-0) equaled last season’s win total, which remains their highest since 2009, and handed Gladstone (5-1) its only loss as the teams met up in Gaylord. Holt 30, Lansing Waverly 6 The Rams (3-3) have played five opponents sitting .500 or better, with Waverly (4-2) also a playoff hopeful but with a tough slate ahead. Ionia 19, Lansing Catholic 18 (OT) The Bulldogs (2-4)  had lost their CAAC White games to Lansing Catholic (2-4) over the last eight seasons by an average of 25 points per contest, but this time they halted the Cougars’ two-game winning streak as Lansing Catholic also was rebounding from a tough start.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Boyne City 42, Charlevoix 14 The Ramblers (6-0) set themselves up with a chance to clinch a Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders title this week against Elk Rapids by handing Charlevoix (5-1) its only defeat. Gavin Hewitt was among standouts as Boyne City scored the first points Charlevoix had given up since Week 1. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Watch list Frankfort 20, East Jordan 14 Defense has been the strength for Frankfort (5-1) this fall, and East Jordan (3-3) had averaged 31 points per game entering the night. Frankfort now will be rooting for the Red Devils, as they need an East Jordan win over first-place St. Ignace this week to have a shot at an NMFC Legacy title share.

On the move Cadillac 28, Petoskey 19 The Vikings (4-2) finished their outright title run in the Big North Conference and now finish their regular season against nonleague teams that are a combined 16-2. Roscommon 43, Manton 0 The Bucks (3-3) have guaranteed their best season since 2018 with three straight wins during which they’ve outscored their opponents by a combined 145-6. Traverse City Central 62, Midland Dow 26 The Trojans (2-4) earned their first win since Week 1, but could make a run at returning to the playoffs by winning out as the four teams they’ve lost to are a combined 21-3.

A Beal City defender wraps up a Pine River ball carrier during the Aggies’ 49-6 victory.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Whitmore Lake 24, Sterling Heights Parkway Christian 15 The Trojans (5-1) clinched their second championship over four seasons in the Michigan Independent Athletic Conference and continued a five-game winning streak. Whitmore Lake is giving up just 15 points per game and allowed a high of just 20 in the Week 1 loss.

Watch list Dexter 21, Ann Arbor Huron 14 While technically two other teams still have a chance, the Southeastern Conference Red title looks like it’s coming down to Dexter (6-0) and Saline. The Dreadnaughts escaped with this close win over the River Rats (3-3) to avenge last year’s seven-point loss.

On the move Napoleon 14, Grass Lake 6 The Pirates (6-0) pulled to within one more win of clinching a share of the Cascades Conference title, but must avenge one of their two 2021 league losses over the next two weeks to do so. Tecumseh 69, Jackson 46 Winner will take all in the SEC White this week as Tecumseh (6-0) avenged last year’s loss to Jackson (3-3) to earn the chance to play Chelsea for the outright league title. Michigan Center 40, Manchester 14 The Cardinals (2-4) have worked through three close losses this fall and with this win over the Flying Dutchmen (4-2) kept their playoff hopes alive.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Battle Creek Central 29, Portage Central 15 The Bearcats couldn’t be in a better position as they pursue the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference championship. Their only loss came nonleague in overtime in Week 1, and Battle Creek Central’s next two SMAC opponents are both winless in league play – with league co-leader St. Joseph the opponent in the regular-season finale. See below for more from FOX 17.

Watch list Union City 32, Addison 22 This was a nonleague win for Union City (5-1) but came against the second-place team from the Cascades Conference. Union City could end up seeing the Cascades champion in a Week 9 crossover if the Chargers can finish off a Big 8 Conference title run. Their final two league games are against teams with one combined league win.

On the move Edwardsburg 58, Paw Paw 36 The Eddies (5-1) found their traditional scoring touch with a season-high points total, although Paw Paw (3-3) also put up the most points Edwardsburg has allowed. St. Joseph 62, Portage Northern 49 The Bears (5-1) kept up their end of that SMAC tie for first as they await third-place Stevensville Lakeshore this week. Benton Harbor 14, Niles Brandywine 0 The Tigers (3-3) kept their Lakeland Conference title hopes alive and also put a dent in the same for Brandywine (4-2); league leader Buchanan sees both to finish the league schedule over the next two weeks.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Bark River-Harris 36, Manistique 21 The Broncos (4-2) bounced back from back-to-back defeats with this win to set up a winner-take-call Week 9 matchup with Ishpeming in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Iron championship. Both are 2-0 in league play. The Broncos should also continue to get a nice bump in playoff points from those losses to West PAC Copper contenders Iron Mountain and Houghton.

Watch list Ishpeming Westwood 34, Hancock 6 After opening with three straight losses – including two two-pointers – Westwood is even at 3-3 and only four spots outside the Division 6 playoff field.

On the move Iron Mountain 35, Calumet 7 The Mountaineers (5-1) avenged last season’s loss to Calumet (3-3) with more lockdown defense. Make that only 40 points given up this season, and only 21 over the last five games. St. Ignace 20, Maple City Glen Lake 7 The Saints’ story keeps getting better as they sit alone atop the NMFC Legacy thanks to another impressive defensive stand. St. Ignace (5-1) has given up 59 points this season, and 40 came in its lone loss to Gladstone. Kingsford 51, Detroit Old Redford 6 The Flivvers (4-2) are No. 13 in Division 5 playoff points after a big win over an Old Redford team that is slated to make the Division 6 field currently at 4-2.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Grand Rapids South Christian 36, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 34 The Sailors earned their first win over GRCC (5-1) since 2014, in doing so ending the Cougars’ winning streak at 41 games – the fifth-longest in MHSAA football history. South Christian quarterback Jake DeHaan was among stars, with his late 82-yard TD run helping to seal the win. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Whitehall 42, Muskegon Oakridge 8 The Vikings (6-0) made a mighty statement in the West Michigan Conference Lakes, moving into first place alone with this win over a former co-leader and formerly undefeated Oakridge (5-1).

On the move Muskegon Mona Shores 34, Zeeland West 6 These Sailors (5-1) moved into first alone in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green by sending Zeeland West (5-1) into a three-way tie for second. Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 14, Lowell 7 The Rangers (6-0) held onto the top spot alone in the O-K White, a game ahead of Byron Center and now two ahead of the Red Arrows (4-2). Muskegon Catholic Central 16, Schoolcraft 12 The Crusaders (4-2) are on a three-game winning streak with this victory over Schoolcraft (4-2). All but one MCC game this season has been decided by eight points or fewer.

8-Player

HEADLINER Colon 25, Climax-Scotts 20 The Magi had defeated Climax-Scotts by an average of nearly 41 points per game during their first four 8-player meetings – but had to hold off the Panthers (5-1) this time. In doing so, Colon (6-0) earned a share of the Southern Central Athletic Association – A championship. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.

Watch list Alcona 50, Indian River Inland Lakes 40 The Tigers have found their footing in 8-player football, and then some. After going 5-4 in their inaugural season last fall, Alcona (6-0) has surpassed that win total and is averaging 60 points per game – already outscoring last year’s team as well. This win was the Tigers’ most impressive, as Inland Lakes (4-2) is the favorite in the Ski Valley Conference.

On the move Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 35, Martin 19 The Mustangs (6-0) handed Martin (5-1) its first regular-season loss on the field since 2018, when the Clippers were still playing the 11-player format. Merrill 52, Morrice 12 The Vandals (6-0) are the team to chase in the Central Michigan 8-Man Football Conference after handing Morrice (5-1) its lone loss, and scoring their second-most points this fall in the process. Munising 54, Pickford 0 Make the reigning champ Mustangs (6-0) the favorites again in the Great Lakes Eight Conference East after they avenged last season’s 40-36 loss to the Panthers (4-2).

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PHOTOS (Top) A Breckenridge ball carrier is pulled down by a Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart tackler during the Huskies’ 20-12 win this past weekend. (Middle) A Beal City defender wraps up a Pine River ball carrier during the Aggies’ 49-6 victory. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)