Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

FHC Caps Ford Field Return by Sending Out Coach, Seniors with 1st Finals Win

By Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com

November 26, 2023

DETROIT – Ty Hudkins and his Forest Hills Central teammates were not going to be denied Sunday in the Division 3 Football Final.

Not even if it meant – in Hudkins’ case – having to drag a Mason defender 20 yards for a touchdown.

Not after coming up one win short of bringing their program its first Finals title a year ago.

And certainly not in the final game of their coach Tim Rogers’ career. 

So Hudkins dragged that defender, the Rangers got that last win, and they sent Rogers out a winner, defeating Mason 27-10 at Ford Field.

“We’ve been talking about this since sixth grade,” Hudkins said, before pointing to his teammates assembled at the press conference. “We’ve been playing for each other since we can remember. All our dads have been the coaches – coach’s kid, coach’s kid, coach’s kid, coach’s kid – it’s just been a real blessing. (Rogers) has been around with us the entire time, as well. It’s just a great way to end. We’ve been talking about it since sixth grade, and the fact that it finally came true is just crazy. It’s a blessing.”

Forest Hills Central had lost to Warren De La Salle Collegiate in the Division 2 Final a year ago. After that game, Rogers told the assembled media that the Rangers would be back, and he was proven correct.

This year, he made another major statement following the game, when he announced that he had just coached his final game at Forest Hills Central, calling it the “worst-kept secret in the state.”

Ty Hudkins (5) hauls in a catch down the sideline for the Rangers. “It’s tough,” Rogers said before taking a moment to collect himself. “Their fathers are dear friends, my assistant coaches. There’s been plenty of inquiries if I was stepping down this year, and the last thing I wanted to be was a distraction to our team. So, do what we always do, put our head down and grind. I feel great. I watched these kids grow up. I think I’m leaving it better than I found it. These assistant coaches I have are fantastic – great fathers, great people, great husbands. So, it was great in our final game to do that. Send them off the way they deserve to be sent off. This community has waited a long time for something like this, and they’re fantastic. The student body was fantastic, our administration was very supportive. Storybook ending for my career to finish with these guys and do what we just did today.”

The Rangers (13-1) did it with defense, holding Mason to 36 yards rushing and 4.3 yards per play. They also forced three turnovers, including a pick-six from linebacker Drew Fortino with 7 minutes, 13 seconds to play, which made the score 27-10 and essentially put the game away.

“I saw the guy across the field, and I saw him coming across, and I kind of just stuck my hand out and was like, ‘Shoot, I got the ball,’” Fortino said. “The whole team blocked really well, and I was able to get into the end zone and they were all in there celebrating with me.”

Mason coach Gary Houghton called the Rangers’ front seven the fastest his team had seen this season, including that of Detroit Martin Luther King, who the Bulldogs played in the Semifinal. As the Bulldogs struggled to find room to run – both with and without star running back AJ Martell, who had eight carries for 14 yards before leaving the game with an injury – that became more and more apparent. But Rogers said it went beyond his team’s athleticism.

“They’re talented for sure,” Rogers said. “But they’re smart. They do so much. The offense gets so much credit for checks at the line of scrimmage and all the things they do. We do that all the time on defense. If you watch me and you knew our signals, half the time you’d just think I was calling base. But these guys check everything at the line of scrimmage. It’s a testament to their football IQ, how they get us in the right play all the time on defense, and just a relentless pursuit of the football.”

JT Hartman led the defense with an interception, a sack, two tackles for loss and eight total tackles. Brady Drueke had a team-high 12 tackles, Fortino added a sack and Hudkins had a diving interception.

The defensive performance was a far cry from a year ago, when the Rangers allowed 52 points in the loss to De La Salle.

“We knew we had to be better, just this offseason, so we worked extra hard in the weight room,” Hartman said. “I think all the extra work made us better players and better people. That translated out on the field.”

Jacob Harleton (22) breaks up a Mason pass at the goal line.While the Mason defense had a fine day itself, holding the Rangers to fewer than 300 yards of total offense and 5.5 yards per play, Central was able to break the game open in the second half thanks to a max-effort play from Hudkins. The Purdue commit hauled in a pass from quarterback Mason McDonald at the 28-yard line and was latched onto at the 20 by a Mason defender. Hudkins stayed on his feet, however, and powered his way into the end zone, diving for the pylon and giving his team a 20-3 lead.

“Just a touchdown in and of itself is a big deal, but to see the will – he was not going to be denied,” Rogers said. “With that, you could literally see the whole sideline just start to elevate. Ty was going to put us on his back literally and figuratively, and he wasn’t going to be denied.”

Hudkins finished the game with 115 yards on six receptions. McDonald led the Forest Hills rushing attack with 74 yards on 21 carries, while Hartman had 68 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Kicker Alex Moeller had a pair of field goals (35 and 27 yards).

For Mason (13-1), it was the end of its own storybook season, even if it didn’t come with the ultimate happy ending. The Bulldogs were playing in their first Final after knocking off King, the team that had ended their previous two seasons in Semifinals.

They had served as a rallying point for a community in mourning following the passing of classmates Lillian Klages and Amanda Blue, who died in an August car crash. 

Mason players ran onto the field led by players carrying flags bearing their names.

“We gave it our best shot,” Mason senior receiver Kaleb Parrish said. “It wasn’t the outcome that we wanted, but we tried for the community. We knew this game was bigger than just a football game. At the end of the day, we all tried. When I looked up in the beginning, it was great to see all of the community that showed up. It was thousands – probably most of our community showed up.”

Parrish had a big day receiving in his final game at Mason, hauling in eight catches for 102 yards. Derek Badgley, who scored the Bulldogs’ lone touchdown on a 2-yard run late in the third quarter, added 71 yards on eight catches. Quarterback Cason Carswell was 22 of 40 passing for 229 yards. Kicker Collin Winters connected on a 26-yard field goal during the first quarter.

Click for the full box score.

PHOTOS (Top) Forest Hills Central coach Tim Rogers holds up his program’s first championship trophy Sunday at Ford Field. (Middle) Ty Hudkins (5) hauls in a catch down the sideline for the Rangers. (Below) Jacob Harleton (22) breaks up a Mason pass at the goal line. (Photos by Hockey Weekly Action Photos.)