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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Negaunee's Kai Lacar (10) finds a hole and breaks away for another Miners touchdown in the second quarter.

1st & Goal: 2022 Week 9 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 24, 2022

Every league champion has been crowned. All 144 playoff pairings are set.

MI Student AidThis fall seemed to fly by, but the football regular season is complete. See below for several of the final steps we took to get there across the state during Week 9.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Davison 28, Lapeer 6 The Cardinals (8-1) clinched the outright Saginaw Valley League South championship as this was a winner-take-all matchup. The victory also avenged a 2021 loss to the Lightning (7-2), and Davison’s defense arguably was the star of this show by limiting a Lapeer attack averaging 39 points per game in one of its most impressive performances of the fall. These two could meet again in a Division 1 District Final. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Watch list Gladwin 35, Standish Sterling 7 The Flying G’s (9-0) won one of three matchups of unbeaten teams this weekend, and in doing so finished their second-straight perfect regular season. Standish-Sterling (7-1) has plenty to boast as well as it takes a combined 17-4 record over the last two seasons into these playoffs.

On the move Croswell-Lexington 41, Freeland 34 The Pioneers (7-2) saw their league title chances dissolve with two losses over the last month, but defeating the No. 12 team in Division 4 playoff-point average in Freeland (7-2) was a solid way to enter the postseason. Essexville Garber 34, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 21 The Dukes (6-3) were No. 29 in Division 5 playoff-point average heading into the week but got a four-spot bump in handing Laker (8-1) its only loss. Goodrich 42, Almont 21 The Martians (8-1) will be home throughout the playoffs with this win over Almont (6-3) another solid building block for the postseason.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Belleville 42, Brighton 3 Although both teams entered undefeated, few have slowed Belleville over the last few seasons as the Tigers (9-0) ran their winning streak to 20 with this Kensington Lakes Activities Association championship win. Brighton (8-1) had given up only 81 points this season before Belleville scored 42; the Tigers have put up at least 41 in every game this fall. Click for more from the Detroit News.

Watch list Grosse Pointe South 44, Grosse Pointe North 14 With the Norsemen (8-1) eying their first perfect regular season since 1986, the Blue Devils (6-3) swooped in to win their sixth game over their last seven this fall and fifth in a row over their rivals.

On the move Detroit Cass Tech 33, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 14 The Technicians (6-3) were able to hold on to the No. 29 spot in Division 1 playoff-point average with their fifth-straight win. Southfield Arts & Technology 28, River Rouge 21 The Warriors (7-2) rebounded from a Week 8 loss to West Bloomfield with a win over a River Rouge team that while 5-3 is much better than that record as all three defeats were by seven points or fewer. Gibraltar Carlson 38, Brownstown Woodhaven 18 Carlson (8-1) is a co-champion in the Downriver League for the second-straight season, with Trenton after the Trojans (8-1) defeated Southgate Anderson.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Grand Ledge 45, East Lansing 30 The Comets (7-2) were considered emerging entering this season, but they finished the regular season as co-champions in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue. The surge seemed to start with a Week 6 win over DeWitt and carried through with this victory over the Trojans (6-3), who were in first place before falling in their final two games to Grand Ledge and the other co-champion, Holt. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Belding 36, Hopkins 14 The Black Knights (8-1) finished a perfect run through the Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver and also ended a five-game regular-season losing streak against Hopkins (5-4), which would have shared the title with a win. (Belding did win a playoff game over Hopkins in 2020 after losing the regular-season meeting.)

On the move Lansing Catholic 42, Pewamo-Westphalia 7 The Cougars sat 3-5 with their string of 13 straight playoff appearances potentially on the verge of ending before they posted their most impressive win in downing the Pirates (5-4). Durand 48, Marine City 28 During an undefeated run of impressive performances, Durand (9-0) may have saved the best for last in this win over the Macomb Area Conference Silver champion Mariners (7-2). Mount Pleasant 28, Linden 21 The Oilers (8-1) won another matchup of league champions, as the Eagles (5-4) suffered their second one-score defeat over the last three weeks.

A Davison ball carrier follows his blocker during Friday's win over Lapeer.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Traverse City St. Francis 45, Detroit Country Day 20 The Gladiators may be favorites in the Division 7 playoffs and certainly are mathematically so as the closed the regular season 9-0 and with a playoff-points average nearly 4.7 points higher than the field. This defeat over a Country Day team (5-3) in line to host both District rounds in Division 5 was among six wins over teams that finished the regular season with winning records. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Ogemaw Heights 35, Lake City 7 Ogemaw Heights’ six-game winning streak got a nice boost from this big win over the also-playoff bound Trojans (5-4). The Falcons (7-2) also surpassed the six wins they’d totaled over the last two seasons combined.

On the move Gaylord 28, Clare 7 The Blue Devils (6-3) entered Week 9 as the No. 32 team on the Division 3 playoff-point list, but were able to bump up a few spots thanks to this win over playoff-bound Clare (5-4). Frankfort 36, Elk Rapids 14 The Panthers (8-1) tied their most wins since 2017 with their sixth-straight this fall. Elk Rapids (6-3) is headed back to the playoffs for the first time since 2018, despite the defeat. Traverse City Central 14, Traverse City West 13 Even with West (2-7) finishing below .500 for the first time since 2015, this rivalry game remained must-see as Central (5-4) won for the fourth-straight season but with this matching the one-score deciders the teams waged from 2013-18.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Clinton 32, Hudson 26 The Redwolves (9-0) made one of the loudest statements of the weekend, not only clinching the Lenawee Country Athletic Association championship for the first time since 2000 but ending Hudson’s state-best 22-game winning streak. The perfect regular season was Clinton’s second in four years (and first since 2019), while Hudson heads to the playoffs at 8-1. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Watch list Dexter 45, Chelsea 0 The Dreadnaughts (9-0) finished atop the Division 2 playoff-point average list by more than four points after defeating Chelsea (5-4) for the first time since 1995.

On the move Napoleon 15, Union City 0 After missing out on the playoffs last season despite a 6-3 record, Napoleon has left no doubt this fall with this win in a Cascades/Big 8 crossover of champions giving the Pirates (9-0) their first perfect regular season since 2002. Union City (7-2) lost for the first time since Week 1. Ida 17, Dundee 12 The Bluestreaks (4-5) needed a strong finish to make the playoffs, and edging Dundee (6-3) gave them the boost. Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 41, Ecorse 22 St. Mary (4-5) similarly needed to close on a high note to make the playoffs, and got it by handing Ecorse (8-1) its only loss.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER St. Joseph 47, Battle Creek Central 29 This winner-take-all Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference matchup went to the Bears (8-1), who earned their first championship since sharing the title in 2015. St. Joseph turned in one of its best offensive performances while scoring the most points the Bearcats (7-2) have given up in a game this season. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.

Watch list Buchanan 36, Centreville 28 The Bucks (8-1) have gotten a lot of attention in this space lately, with good reason, as they added to their league title with a win over the Southwest 10 Conference champion Bulldogs (6-3).

On the move Constantine 37, Benton Harbor 20 The Falcons (8-1) capped a regular season that saw their only loss by two to Hudson in Week 2, and they enter the Division 6 playoffs No. 6 in playoff-point average. Portage Northern 35, Mattawan 21 The Huskies (6-3) closed on a three-game winning streak to return to the playoffs after missing last season. Plainwell 29, Paw Paw 23 The Trojans (4-5) missed the playoffs but ended with something to build on, stopping a four-game losing streak with this win over the playoff-bound Red Wolves (4-5). Three of Plainwell’s losses were by seven points or fewer.

A Cass City ball carrier prepares to take on a Beal City defender.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Bark River-Harris 28, Ishpeming 20 The Broncos helped open the weekend Thursday by clinching the last league title up for grabs in the Upper Peninsula. Downing the Hematites not only gave the Broncos the outright Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Iron championship, but put them at 7-2 to conclude their winningest regular season since 2015. Ishpeming’s loss was its third by eight points or fewer, but it still qualified in Division 8 at 4-5. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

Watch list Menominee 42, Kingsford 41 Arguably the most exciting game above the Bridge this season saw the Maroons hold off a final charge by the Flivvers. Menominee (5-4) in doing so solidified its spot in the Division 6 field, while Kingsford (6-3) qualified as No. 12 in Division 5.

On the move Calumet 41, L'Anse 22 The Copper Kings (6-3) were out of contention in the West-PAC Copper but closed with three straight wins to make the playoffs for the 18th time in 19 seasons. L’Anse also advanced for the first time (not counting all-in 2020) since 2013. Sault Ste. Marie 20, Benzie Central 14 (OT) The Blue Devils (6-3) just missed the playoffs for the second-straight season but came back from a midseason three-game losing streak to finish above .500 for the fifth-straight year. St. Ignace 54, Harbor Springs 14 The Saints capped their turnaround regular season at 7-2, their best record since 2016, and as outright champions in the Northern Michigan Football Conference Legacy.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Rockford 38, Caledonia 15 Another winner-take-all decided the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red championship, with the Rams clinching their fourth straight with their third-straight undefeated regular season while sending the Fighting Scots to 8-1. Rockford built a sizable first-half lead in part by locking down a Caledonia offense that entered the game averaging nearly 46 points per. These two could see each other again in a Division 1 District Final. Click for more from FOX 17.

Watch list Muskegon 55, Muskegon Mona Shores 35 The Big Reds (7-2) seemed to fall out of the statewide conversation after a two-point loss to Zeeland West put them at 3-2. But they need to be talked up again after this big win over Mona Shores (7-2) gave them a share of the O-K Green title and vaulted them to No. 6 in Division 3 playoff-point average. Shores sits No. 9 in Division 2 playoff-point average.

On the move Fruitport 52, Holland Christian 21 The Trojans (7-2) clinched a share of the O-K Blue title and continued to build on their best record since 2012. Reed City 16, Cadillac 8 (OT) The Coyotes (8-1) are riding substantial momentum into the playoffs as the No. 3 team in Division 6 playoff-point average. Grand Rapids West Catholic 39, Hudsonville Unity Christian 18 West Catholic is the No. 1 team on that Division 6 list and the other half of the O-K Blue co-championship after downing last season’s Division 4 runner-up Unity (5-4).

8-Player

HEADLINER Au Gres-Sims 42, Posen 24 The Wolverines finished up an outright championship run in the North Star League Little Dipper, sending Posen (7-2) into second place with its lone league loss. Au Gres-Sims (8-1) has won seven straight games (including a forfeit in Week 8), and held a Posen offense averaging 45 points per game to nearly half that. Click for more from WBKB.

Watch list Deckerville 62, Peck 60 (4 OT) The Eagles (6-3) finished third in the North Central Thumb League Stars but vaulted into the postseason with this win over the Stripes champion Pirates (7-2). The teams hadn’t faced each other since 2019, but Deckerville has won their last seven meetings.

On the move Stephenson 50 Norway 40 This was notable for several reasons – the Eagles secured a spot in the playoff field, they did so against a Norway team (6-3) that’s been considered among the best in 8-player Division 1, and at 6-3 as well Stephenson has its most wins since 2017. Powers North Central 42, Crystal Falls Forest Park 0 The Jets (9-0) finished another Great Lakes Eight Conference West title with their 33rd straight win, and could see Forest Park (7-2) again in a Regional Final. Bridgman 35, Martin 34 The Bees finished their second-straight perfect regular season after moving to 8-player four years ago, with this win over Division 1 contender Martin (7-2) among their most impressive victories of the run.

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PHOTOS Negaunee's Kai Lacar (10) finds a hole and sprints for another Miners touchdown in the second quarter of last week's win over Ishpeming Westwood. (Middle) A Davison ball carrier follows his blocker during Friday's win over Lapeer. (Below) A Cass City ball carrier prepares to take on a Beal City defender. (Photos by Cara Kamps, Terry Lyons and High School Sports Scene, respectively.)