Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
1st & Goal: 2022 Playoff Week 1 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 28, 2022
Everything begins anew this weekend for Michigan’s remaining football hopefuls.
That isn’t entirely true, of course. Only 288 varsity teams are still playing based on what they accomplished during the regular season, and those teams are matched up in their Districts according to how they performed over the last nine weeks.
But at the same time, all 288 have a championship opportunity as playoffs begin Friday with District Semifinals in 11-Player and Regional Semifinals in 8-Player – click here for the full schedule for every division.
Of 144 games being played this weekend, 122 will be broadcast on MHSAA.tv, with Bally Sports Detroit broadcasting the Detroit Cass Tech/West Bloomfield Division 1 District opener at 7:30 p.m. on the BSD Extra channel.
See below for a glance at an especially notable playoff opener in every division. (Games are Friday unless noted.)
11-Player Division 1
Detroit Cass Tech (6-3) at West Bloomfield (8-1)
These continue to be two of the most high-profile programs in the state, and this will be their first meeting since the 2017 Semifinals when West Bloomfield advanced with a 9-7 victory. Both have strung together solid wins especially over the last two weeks, with the Lakers coming off victories over Southfield Arts & Technology and Utica Eisenhower and Cass Tech defeating Detroit Martin Luther King and Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice. The Technicians gave up only 14 points in both of those victories, and West Bloomfield’s offense (34 ppg) may be facing its biggest test.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Ledge (7-2) at Brighton (8-1), Lapeer (7-2) at Clarkston (7-2), Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (7-2) at Romeo (7-2), Detroit Catholic Central (6-2) at Dearborn (7-2).
11-Player Division 2
South Lyon (6-3) at South Lyon East (7-2)
Just a week ago, South Lyon East broke a four-game losing streak against its rival – and now they’re meeting again on the same field. That 27-21 triumph was only the second win for the Cougars in 15 tries against the Lions since East began playing varsity football in 2008, a year after it opened with only underclassmen. But this fall under second-year coach Jacob Topp, the Cougars have posted their winningest regular season despite facing five eventual playoff teams. The Lions – who made the Semifinals last season – faced five as well and surely are driving even harder after losing the last two weeks by a combined seven points.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY East Lansing (6-3) at Battle Creek Central (7-2), Grosse Pointe South (6-3) vs. Warren De La Salle Collegiate (8-1) at Wayne State University, Traverse City Central (5-4) at Muskegon Mona Shores (7-2). SATURDAY Saginaw Heritage (7-2) at Waterford Mott (7-2).
11-Player Division 3
River Rouge (5-3) at Detroit Martin Luther King (5-3)
These are two more of the state’s most high-profile programs, but they’re plenty familiar with each other after facing off the playoffs the last two seasons with King last year’s victor and Rouge coming out on top in 2020. After both matchups, the winner eventually reached Ford Field. The Panthers are slightly more than two touchdowns from perfection this fall, having lost their games by a combined 15 points. Often recognized more for a high-powered offense, Rouge is giving up only 8.5 points per game on defense despite facing another strong schedule. That should make for an interesting matchup for King standout quarterback Dante Moore and an offense averaging 36 points per game but coming off losses to Cass Tech and Ohio powerhouse Cincinnati Moeller.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Gaylord (6-3) at Mount Pleasant (8-1), Haslett (6-3) at Linden (5-4), Lowell (6-3) at Zeeland West (8-1), Parma Western (6-3) at Jackson (5-4).
11-Player Division 4
Freeland (7-2) at North Branch (8-1)
The strengths of a pair of Saginaw/Thumb-area leagues will be tested as North Branch was a co-champion of the Blue Water Area Conference and Freeland finished second in the Tri-Valley Conference 10. Aside from its Week 7 loss to Armada, the Broncos didn’t have another game closer than 14 points – and the two do share a recent opponent with North Branch defeating Croswell-Lexington 35-21 in Week 8 and Freeland falling to the Pioneers last week 41-34. That said, the Falcons have made the Semifinals the last two seasons and have plenty of know-how when it comes to this time of year.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Big Rapids (7-2) at Whitehall (9-0), Chelsea (5-4) at Charlotte (8-1), Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (3-5) at Croswell-Lexington (7-2), Carleton Airport (7-2) at Tecumseh (9-0).
11-Player Division 5
Howard City Tri County (7-2) at Belding (8-1)
Belding is enjoying its winningest season since a District title run in 2017, while Tri County is hoping to continue building on last year’s 9-2 finish that was its winningest since 2004. Both have kept the scoreboard moving. The Vikings are enjoying their best offensive season in recent memory, averaging 44 points per game, and Belding is right there too averaging nearly 42. Both are league champions but took good losses late – Tri County to Big Rapids and Muskegon Catholic Central over the last three weeks and Belding to Cadillac in Week 7.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Kingsley (7-2) at Kingsford (6-3), Olivet (7-2) at Portland (8-1), Williamston (7-2) at Corunna (7-2), Flint Hamady (8-1) at Armada (7-2).
11-Player Division 6
Calumet (6-3) at Menominee (5-4)
These two both made it count down the stretch to earn longer seasons. Calumet has won three straight, including two matchups over playoff teams, and its losses are against arguably the three best teams from the Upper Peninsula this fall. Menominee held off Kingsford 42-41 last week after losing two in a row, but its offense has been rumbling with 42 or more points both of the last two weeks – raising its season average to 31. Calumet has been on a similar ride, scoring at least 35 points over those last three games – about a touchdown above its season average of 28.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Kent City (7-2) at Muskegon Catholic Central (7-2), Buchanan (8-1) at Constantine (8-1), Ovid-Elsie (7-2) at Almont (6-3), Detroit Voyageur College Prep (7-2) at Ecorse (8-1).
11-Player Division 7
Ravenna (6-3) at North Muskegon (8-1)
This is a rematch of a Week 7 game won 28-7 by North Muskegon on its way to claiming the West Michigan Conference Rivers championship. These two annual league opponents also met in a District opener last season, won 7-6 by the Bulldogs. The Norsemen have tied their winningest season since 2006 and haven’t lost since a season-opening two-point defeat to Muskegon Catholic Central. The offense is scoring 40 points per game and the defense is giving up eight and hasn’t allowed more than seven to an opponent in a month. Ravenna bounced back from two straight losses with a big win last week over Hart.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Bath (6-3) at Pewamo-Westphalia (5-4), Bad Axe (6-3) at Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (8-1), Union City (7-2) at Hudson (8-1), Homer (7-2) at Jackson Lumen Christi (6-3).
11-Player Division 8
Harbor Beach (8-1) at Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (8-1)
These two are part of one of the most competitive Districts in any division, making this one of the top openers of the weekend statewide. On the other side of the bracket, Ubly (9-0) hosts Saginaw Nouvel (6-3), and whichever team advances to Regionals surely will have earned it and then some. MLS’s only loss was to Division 7 contender Ithaca, and its best win was over another Division 8 contender in Marine City Cardinal Mooney – plus MLS defeated Nouvel 55-7 in Week 6. Harbor Beach’s only defeat came to Ubly, but otherwise only Division 7 Cass City put up much of a challenge – and a 28-7 win over Division 7 Bad Axe two weeks ago was especially notable.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Bark River-Harris (7-2) at St. Ignace (7-2), Carson City-Crystal (8-1) at Fowler (8-1), White Pigeon (6-3) at Centreville (6-3), Addison (5-4) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (9-0).
8-Player Division 1
Newberry (8-1) at Rogers City (9-0)
These two are part of a super-strong Regional – Munising (9-0) hosts Norway (6-3) on the other side. The Hurons finished their first perfect season since 1998 and really started to impress after midseason, with none of their last four opponents getting closer than 16 points as they averaged 57 points per game over the string. Newberry’s loss came all the way back in Week 2, when it was the only team this season to hang with Munising. Newberry hasn’t allowed a point in three straight games and four of its last five, taking its defensive average down to 7.4 points allowed per game.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Deckerville (6-3) at Kingston (9-0), Auburn Hills Oakland Christian (8-1) at Brown City (8-1), Fulton (7-2) at Breckenridge (7-2).
8-Player Division 2
Mendon (7-2) at Climax-Scotts (8-1)
Climax-Scotts was one of the elite small-school 11-player programs in Michigan during the first two decades of the 2000s, and although the Panthers made the 8-player Division 2 Semifinals in their first season in the format in 2019, this season feels like potentially a bigger step toward winning a championship. Climax-Scotts’ only loss was by five to undefeated Colon, and it joined Colon in handing two-time reigning Division 1 champion Adrian Lenawee Christian a defeat this fall. Mendon seems on a similar track. The Hornets dominated small-school 11-player football for years and debuted in 8-player with an 8-3 finish a year ago. But with their two losses this season by a combined eight points to teams that are a combined 16-2, Mendon may too be on the verge of something substantial.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Posen (7-2) at Marion (9-0), Central Lake (7-2) at Gaylord St. Mary (7-2), Morrice (7-2) at Peck (7-2).
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PHOTO Traverse City Central applies the pressure as Mount Pleasant gets off a pass during the Oilers’ Week 4 win over the Trojans. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)