Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
1st & Goal: 2022 Playoff Week 2 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
November 4, 2022
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are set up purposely to begin with local matchups and continue to branch out along more unfamiliar paths.
This weekend’s 11-Player District Finals and 8-Player Regional Finals still include a good share of familiarity – whether they are pitting regular-season rivals for a rematch or past playoff opponents who have become more known over years of similar November meetings.
Below is a glance at a game in each division that especially pops off the page. Click here for all things football matchups – schedules, scores as they come in and next-round pairings as they’re determined – and if you can’t make it to a game live this weekend, 85 percent of those games will be streamed live on MHSAA.tv.
11-Player Division 1
Caledonia (9-1) at Rockford (10-0)
The much-hyped Week 9 game matching undefeated contenders for the outright Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title turned into a 38-15 Rockford win over the Fighting Scots. But we’ve already seen plenty of rematches going the other way this postseason, even after a big win in the first meeting. Rockford opened the playoffs with a 50-14 victory over East Kentwood, putting up its most points this season and outdoing its 41-20 win over the Falcons on Sept. 23. Caledonia did similar in its 48-26 first-round win over Grandville after previously defeating the Bulldogs 50-40 during Week 5.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Ledge (8-2) at Holt (7-3), Clarkston (8-2) at Davison (9-1), Romeo (8-2) at Macomb Dakota (10-0).
11-Player Division 2
Muskegon Mona Shores (8-2) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (10-0)
The Rangers have been piling up strong seasons for the last seven, and made the Division 2 Semifinals in 2017. They haven’t advanced past the District level since, but defeating Mona Shores to do so this weekend certainly would be considered a breakout performance. Forest Hills Central hasn’t given up more than 14 points in a game and is allowing only 5.7 per game this fall. That should get a strong challenge from the Sailors, who even in their defeats put up 27 and 35 points – and they’re averaging 43 per game. Mona Shores has won its last three playoff meetings with FHC (over the last four seasons) including 31-7 last fall.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY South Lyon (7-3) at Dexter (10-0), Warren De La Salle Collegiate (9-1) at Roseville (8-2), Birmingham Groves (7-3) at Birmingham Seaholm (8-2).
11-Player Division 3
Zeeland West (9-1) at St. Joseph (9-1)
The Dux are playing in their fifth District Final in six seasons but seeking to advance for the first time since their most recent championship run of 2015. St. Joseph shut West’s pursuit down quickly last year with a 29-26 District-opening victory that turned into an unexpected Semifinal run for the Bears after they’d entered the playoffs 5-4. Expectations are much higher this time as St. Joseph hasn’t lost since Week 1, and the offense especially is surging scoring 42 or more points in four of its last five games including three against playoff teams. West’s only loss was to Mona Shores in Week 6, and its 36-28 win over Lowell last weekend was especially noteworthy among Division 3 matchups.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY DeWitt (7-3) at Mount Pleasant (9-1), Trenton (9-1) at Gibraltar Carlson (9-1), Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (4-5) at Walled Lake Western (9-1).
11-Player Division 4
Tecumseh (10-0) at Riverview (10-0)
Riverview deserves more due after completing a third-straight undefeated regular season, and a first District title since 2017 would add another highlight to arguably its most impressive run of the three. Tecumseh’s story has been told a few times in this space – the team was a combined 8-25 over the last four seasons but has reached 10-0 for the first time since 1991. Tecumseh’s offense is up to 51 points per game after going over 50 last week for the seventh time this fall. Riverview is giving up 15 points per game and has never allowed more than 28 – giving this matchup the feel of a potential back-and-forth tug-of-war.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Hudsonville Unity Christian (6-4) at Grand Rapids South Christian (10-0), Charlotte (9-1) at Hastings (9-1), Freeland (8-2) at Goodrich (9-1).
11-Player Division 5
Belding (9-1) at Muskegon Oakridge (9-1)
Only three of eight teams on this side of the Division 5 bracket won their league’s championship this fall. Belding was one of those three, its only loss to another league champion in Cadillac. The Black Knights’ offense is churning at 43 points per game but next runs into an Oakridge defense giving up just under 13. The Eagles finished second in their league, losing only to still-undefeated Whitehall – and aside from Whitehall, no other opponent has scored more than 18 points against them. Similarly, aside from Cadillac, Belding has scored at least 34 points on every other opponent and more than 40 points on seven.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Corunna (8-2) at Portland (9-1), Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (7-3) at Detroit Country Day (6-3). SATURDAY Flint Hamady (9-1) at Marine City (8-2).
11-Player Division 6
Warren Michigan Collegiate (9-1) at Madison Heights Bishop Foley (10-0)
Last season’s Division 6 runner-up Michigan Collegiate is an eight-point loss to Detroit Country Day from being undefeated, and statistically has been even better on both sides of the ball so far than during last year’s run to Ford Field. Likewise, Bishop Foley is having its best season, reaching 10 wins for the first time thanks in part to a defense that matches Michigan Collegiate’s in giving up only 11 points per game. This will be the Ventures’ second District Final in three seasons as they seek to reach the Regional for the first time.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Standish-Sterling (8-1) at Millington (9-1), Ecorse (9-1) at Clinton (10-0). SATURDAY Constantine (9-1) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (9-1).
11-Player Division 7
Hudson (9-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (7-3)
This might be one of the most telling games in the entire Division 7 bracket this month. The teams have traveled much different paths to end up looking like strong title contenders. Lumen Christi opened this season 0-3 with losses to two more Division 7 powers – New Lothrop and Traverse City St. Francis – and then a three-point loss to Division 5 Hastings, the eventual champion in the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference. All three of those defeats were by seven points or fewer, and the Titans haven’t lost again. Enter Hudson, last season’s Division 8 champion, with its only loss to undefeated Division 6 contender Clinton but an impressive early-season win over another Division 6 contender in Constantine.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Schoolcraft (7-3) at Lawton (8-2), Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (9-1) at Montrose (7-3). SATURDAY Ravenna (7-3) at Ithaca (9-1).
11-Player Division 8
Fowler (9-1) at Beal City (10-0)
Beal City is one of three undefeated teams left in Division 8, and a regular at this point in the season having finished Division 8 runner-up last year and in 2019. This time, however, the Aggies are 10-0 for the first time since 2013. Fowler is making its fourth-straight trip to a District Final as well. The Eagles handed Carson City-Crystal both of its losses and got past rival Pewamo-Westphalia for the first time since 2014. Fowler is giving up only 9.1 points per game and aside from a loss to Division 6 Laingsburg hasn’t allowed more than 16. Beal City has been similarly up to the task defensively, but also is scoring 42 points per game after putting up 63 in its playoff opener.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (9-1) at Ubly (10-0), Bark River-Harris (8-2) at Iron Mountain (9-1), Clarkston Everest Collegiate (7-3) at Marine City Cardinal Mooney (8-2).
8-Player Division 1
Newberry (9-1) at Munising (10-0)
One of the very few non-blowouts these teams played was against each other in Week 2, when Munising won 14-0 on the way to eventually claiming the Great Lakes Eight Conference East championship. Newberry is averaging 43 points per game despite that shutout and put up 54 last week on previously-unbeaten Rogers City to earn this rematch. Munising scores 52 points per game, so it’s anyone’s guess if this will be another low-scoring matchup or one that will keep the scoreboard moving. Both defenses have five shutouts this fall as well.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Breckenridge (8-2) at Merrill (10-0), Deckerville (7-3) at Brown City (9-1). SATURDAY Adrian Lenawee Christian (8-2) at Martin (8-2).
8-Player Division 2
Mendon (8-2) at Colon (10-0)
These neighbors met three times in the 11-player playoffs and will meet for the first time in 8-player with Mendon having made the format switch last year. Mendon has given up 49 points total over its seven-game winning streak (one victory was a forfeit). But the Hornets are facing a Magi team that also is enjoying a superlative season, which really seemed to take off with a Week 4 win over Adrian Lenawee Christian and included a 25-20 Week 6 victory over Climax-Scotts – which Mendon defeated 44-18 in its playoff opener last week. Colon has put up 60+ points in four straight games – although two of them were against the same team – and averages 55 per game despite playing half its games against playoff teams.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Lake Linden-Hubbell (7-3) at Powers North Central (10-0), Gaylord St. Mary (8-2) at Marion (10-0). SATURDAY Morrice (8-2) at Au Gres-Sims (9-1).
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PHOTO A Holt ball carrier works to find an opening during a District Semifinal win over Hartland. (Photo by Michele Hoffman.)