Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
1st & Goal: 2022 Playoff Week 3 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
November 10, 2022
Michigan’s first 2022 football finalists will earn their ways to the Superior Dome this weekend, as the eight remaining 8-player hopefuls face off in four Semifinals across two divisions Saturday.
More detailed looks at those games move to the top of this weekend’s “1st & Goal” preview, followed by glances at Regional Final matchups in every 11-player division as those teams seek to take a step closer to spending Thanksgiving weekend at Ford Field.
Once again, click here for all things football matchups – schedules, scores as they come in and next-round pairings as they’re determined – and enjoy the opportunity to watch several games as 34 of 36 this weekend will be streamed live on MHSAA.tv.
8-Player Division 1
Merrill (11-0) at Munising (11-0), Saturday
This will be the first 8-player Semifinal for both, although both played at this stage of the 11-player tournament before – Munising most recently when it finished Division 8 runner-up in 2014, and Merrill in 1999. Merrill senior quarterback Joel Tack can do it all offensively; he leads the Vandals with 1,864 yards and 27 touchdowns rushing and has thrown for 1,518 yards and 26 scores. Munising throws effectively when needed, but makes no secret of its rushing power. The Mustangs have run for 4,390 yards, led by seniors Kane Nebel with 1,496 and 15 touchdowns and Josiah Peramaki with 1,480 yards and 26 scores.
Brown City (10-1) at Martin (9-2), Saturday
The Green Devils’ turnaround from last year’s 1-8 finish has landed at their first Semifinal since 1997, where they’ll face Martin looking to avenge a 49-6 defeat to the Clippers in Week 5. Brown City has scored 60 points in four of five games since and 52 in the fifth (another win was a forfeit), with seniors Kyle Affer (1,537 yards, 24 touchdowns rushing) and Clint Ford (1,117 yards, 14 TDs rushing) shouldering a lot of the load. Martin will be playing in a Semifinal for the third-straight season, seeking to reach a championship game for the first time since 1987. Senior quarterback JR Hildebrand directs the attack well and has totaled 1,254 yards and 25 touchdowns passing and 1,518 yards and 25 scores on the ground.
8-Player Division 2
Powers North Central (11-0) at Marion (11-0), Saturday
This is a rematch of North Central’s 73-8 Semifinal win from a year ago, but there are reasons to expect a closer game this time. True, the Jets are at 35 straight wins and counting, going back three seasons and with no opponent coming closer than 39 points over the last two. Senior quarterback Luke Gorzinski has set the pace during the entirety of the run, and heads into this weekend with 1,067 yards and 18 touchdowns passing with 1,109 yards and 17 touchdowns rushing. He’s also a starting defensive back for a defense giving up 2.9 points per game. But Marion’s defense has taken a few steps upward as well, giving up only 8.5 points per game this fall and none during the playoffs. The Eagles also have a standout quarterback – senior Mason Salisbury has run for 1,046 yards and 27 touchdowns and thrown for 1,378 yards and 22 scores.
Morrice (9-2) at Mendon (9-2), Saturday
Mendon opened its 8-player era reaching the Regional Finals last year, and the Hornets took a sizable next step advancing to this Semifinal with a 46-44 win over previously-undefeated Colon last week. The powerful rushing game that helped make them a state power in 11-player for decades works here as well – junior Jack McCaw has run for 1,674 yards and 22 touchdowns and senior Evan Lukeman follows with 1,180 and 17, respectively. Morrice missed the Semifinals by a win both of the last two seasons, but is back thanks in part to a pair of 1,000-yard rushers as well. Senior Drew McGowan has run for 1,403 and 20 touchdowns, and senior quarterback Travis Farrow has 1,012 yards and 17 scores on the ground.
11-Player Division 1
Rochester Adams (10-1) at Clarkston (9-2), Friday
Clarkston won the first meeting of these Oakland Activities Association Red rivals, 45-35 in Week 3, and has already responded to two strong playoff challenges with a combined 111 points. Ethan Clark has run for more than 5,000 yards over his career including 337 and six touchdowns against Davison last week. But Adams has plenty of star power as well and hasn’t lost again as Parker Picot has continued to show he’s one of the state’s top quarterbacks.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Detroit Cass Tech (8-3) at Macomb Dakota (11-0). SATURDAY Grand Ledge (9-2) vs. Caledonia (10-1) at East Kentwood, Detroit Catholic Central (8-2) at Belleville (11-0).
11-Player Division 2
Midland (10-1) at Dexter (11-0), Friday
Star running back Cole Cabana continues to lead Dexter into uncharted waters as the Dreadnaughts will look to add to their first District title won last week. Midland won a Regional title as recently as 2018 and has more than rebounded from last season’s uncharacteristic 2-7 finish thanks in part to an ability to win close games – four victories this fall were by eight points or fewer. Two of Dexter’s best wins were by one score as well – including over Saline in Week 8.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY East Lansing (8-3) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (11-0), Birmingham Groves (8-3) at Livonia Franklin (10-1), Harrison Township L’Anse Creuse (7-4) vs. Warren De La Salle Collegiate (10-1) at Wayne State University.
11-Player Division 3
Zeeland West (10-1) at Muskegon (9-2), Saturday
This is a rematch of a West 38-36 win in Week 5, and the two went on to share the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green title with Muskegon Mona Shores. The Dux ended up on top in that back-and-forth game with a last-minute touchdown, but the Big Reds haven’t lost since – with their most notable victory 55-35 over Mona Shores in Week 9. West lost to Mona Shores 34-6 the week after the Muskegon win, but rebounded to finish the regular season and open the playoffs with one of the most impressive District runs in any division – victories over Lowell and St. Joseph.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY DeWitt (8-3) at Linden (7-4), Mason (11-0) at Trenton (10-1), Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (5-5) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-3).
11-Player Division 4
Whitehall (11-0) at Grand Rapids South Christian (11-0), Friday
The best season in Whitehall football history has been filled with unforgettable highlights, starting with early wins over 2021 Division 4 runner-up Hudsonville Unity Christian and then Hastings (still Hastings’ only loss) and followed by a league title run through the West Michigan Conference Lakes that included a 42-victory win over Muskegon Oakridge (which remains Oakridge’s only loss). Total, eight wins have come against playoff teams, and another over South Christian would be the biggest of all. Not only did the Sailors end Grand Rapids Catholic Central’s two-plus season winning streak, but that was one of seven wins over playoff teams and one of only two single-digit games they’ve played this fall. Whitehall’s closest game was the 41-30 win over the Saxons.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Hastings (10-1) at Edwardsburg (10-1), Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (5-5) at Goodrich (10-1), Dearborn Divine Child (9-2) at Riverview (11-0).
11-Player Division 5
Portland (10-1) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (10-1), Friday
Over the course of GRCC’s two straight Division 5 championships, the Cougars have faced most of the usual contenders but not Portland, which had to forfeit their scheduled District Final matchup during COVID-altered 2020. That provides some anticipation now that they’ll finally meet, as the Raiders are known for their ability to grind through close games against their strongest opponents. Portland’s first two playoff games both were settled by one score, and it will be interesting to see how the Raiders match up as GRCC’s offense has heated up during the playoffs with two 56-point outputs. There is a recent common opponent to consider: The Cougars shut out Berrien Springs 56-0 last week, while Portland defeated Berrien Springs 40-6 in Week 9.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Flint Hamady (10-1) at Frankenmuth (11-0), Detroit Country Day (7-3) at Flat Rock (8-3). SATURDAY Gladwin (11-0) at Muskegon Oakridge (10-1).
11-Player Division 6
Warren Michigan Collegiate (10-1) at Clinton (11-0), Friday
Michigan Collegiate is coming off arguably the most impressive of a series of take-notice defensive performances this fall, shutting down a Madison Heights Bishop Foley team averaging 39 points per game to win their District. Next up is a Clinton attack averaging 42 points and coming off its fifth game this season scoring 50 or more. That may be the key matchup, but there’s a smidge of history here too. Clinton defeated Michigan Collegiate 13-12 in a 2020 Regional Final on the way to finishing Division 6 runner-up, and of course the Cougars came back last season to also finish runner-up at Ford Field.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Lansing Catholic (6-5) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (10-1). SATURDAY Negaunee (11-0) at Gladstone (9-2), Millington (10-1) at Reed City (10-1).
11-Player Division 7
Ithaca (10-1) at Traverse City St. Francis (11-0), Saturday
This will be St. Francis’ ninth-straight Regional Final, and few other programs consistently reach this point in November. But Ithaca is another; this will be the Yellowjackets’ 11th Regional Final over the last 14 seasons. Their lone loss was in Week 2, by four points to Division 6 Standish-Sterling, and they put up a season-high 63 points in defeating Ravenna by 36 last week. That’s the right way to enter this matchup against a Gladiators team that has rumbled through a schedule that includes three teams still playing this weekend. That said, St. Francis has had just one single-digit game all season – although last week’s 34-18 rematch win over Benzie Central may have given Ithaca some ideas.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (10-1) at New Lothrop (9-2), Lawton (9-2) at Jackson Lumen Christi (8-3), Napoleon (11-0) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (6-5).
11-Player Division 8
Evart (10-1) at Iron Mountain (10-1), Saturday
The Mountaineers are playing in their third Regional Final in four seasons and have nearly matched their 12-1 season of 2019 both in record and impressiveness. Their lone loss this fall came Week 1 to still-undefeated Negaunee, and that was by just five points; otherwise, Iron Mountain has won all of its games by double digits and had held every opponent to eight points or fewer until winning a rematch with Bark River-Harris last week 32-16. Evart also deserves more fanfare as it’s reached 10 wins for the first time and with its only loss by five points to Beal City, which finished 10-1. The Wildcats’ offense is capable of putting up a big number, averaging 40 points per game, which should make for an interesting matchup with Iron Mountain’s defense that allows only 6.9 ppg.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY White Pigeon (8-3) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (11-0), Sterling Heights Parkway Christian (6-5) at Clarkston Everest Collegiate (8-3). SATURDAY Fowler (10-1) at Ubly (11-0).
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PHOTOS (Top) A Lansing Catholic pass rusher collapses the Ovid-Elsie pocket during the Cougars' District Final win last weekend. (Photo by Christine McCallister.)