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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

A Dexter ball carrier works to break free from a Midland tackler during their Division 2 Regional Final.

1st & Goal: 2022 Playoff Week 3 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 14, 2022

We’re just days away from awarding our first MHSAA Football Finals championships for the 2022 season, and we’re guaranteed at least five new winners with many more hopefuls moving closer to earning that opportunity.

MI Student AidOur two 8-player championship games are set – we’ll have just one team returning to Superior Dome from last year’s finalists – and we’re down to 32 contenders set to play 11-player Semifinals, including just six that reached Ford Field a year ago. We’re already assured of new champions in four of those 11-player divisions.

Below is a glance at how we reached this point – headed to Marquette this weekend and then on to Detroit.

8-Player Division 1

SEMIFINAL Merrill 22, Munising 20 A big comeback sent the Vandals (12-0) to their first MHSAA championship game in this sport. Munising led by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter before Merrill came back and went ahead for good during the closing minutes. The Vandals were held 25 points below their average, but also kept Munising (11-1) well below its 51 points-per-game average heading into the weekend. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

SEMIFINAL Martin 42, Brown City 8 After falling in Semifinals in 2020 and 2021, Martin is headed to its first championship game since 1987. The Clippers (10-2) posted one of their top defensive performances of the last three seasons, stalling a Green Devils offense that was averaging 52 points per game. Brown City concluded its first season of 8-player at 10-2 after going 1-8 in 11-player in 2021. Click for more from WWMT.

8-Player Division 2

SEMIFINAL Powers North Central 36, Marion 12 North Central will play for a third-straight Division 2 championship but had to advance from its closest game of the season to earn the opportunity. The Jets (12-0) took a 22-12 lead into halftime and were able to hold Marion (11-1) off during the third quarter before pulling away for two more scores during the fourth. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

SEMIFINAL Mendon 30, Morrice 14 Jack McCaw ran for 198 yards and three touchdowns as Mendon (10-2) reached the Finals in just its second season of 8-player after playing in 12 championship games in 11-player. The Hornets scored the first two touchdowns of the game and contained a Morrice offense that had scored 42 points per game coming into the contest. The Orioles finished 9-3. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.

11-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Clarkston 36, Rochester Adams 33 The Highlanders (10-2) went ahead on a Parker Picot run with 3:17 to play, but the Wolves (10-2) clinched the Regional title when Desman Stephens hauled in the game-winning touchdown pass with less than a second remaining. Clarkston completed a season sweep of the Highlanders, after the Wolves’ 45-35 Week 3 win eventually decided the Oakland Activities Association Red title. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Regional Roundup Caledonia 42, Grand Ledge 14 The Flighting Scots (11-1) advanced to their first Semifinal since 2012 by taking a seven-point lead into halftime and scoring 21 unanswered points during the final two quarters. Grand Ledge finished its winningest season since 2015 at 9-3. Belleville 33, Detroit Catholic Central 10 The Tigers (12-0) ran for four of their five touchdowns in reaching the Semifinals for the fifth straight season. DCC finished 8-3 for the second straight. Detroit Cass Tech 35, Macomb Dakota 21 The Technicians (9-3) defeated a third league champion in three playoff games, this time handing Macomb Area Conference Red title winner Dakota (11-1) its lone defeat.

11-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 21, East Lansing 17 The Rangers (12-0) built a two-touchdown lead and then held off a Trojans comeback attempt to earn their first Regional title since 2017. This was Forest Hills Central’s closest game, but the defense continued to shine holding East Lansing (8-4) to half its 34 ppg average heading into the weekend. Click for more from FOX 17.

Regional Roundup

Dexter 42, Midland 7 Reeves Taylor threw for 300 yards and five touchdowns to lead Dexter (12-0) to its first Regional championship. Midland finished 10-2, its best since 2013 and a major improvement from 2-7 in 2021. Birmingham Groves 32, Livonia Franklin 25 The Falcons (9-3) are another team making a great comeback this fall, after two straight sub-.500 seasons; they’re headed back to the Semifinals for the first time since 2018. Franklin finished 10-2, its winningest run since 2017. Warren De La Salle Collegiate 55, Harrison Township L’Anse Creuse 7 The Pilots (11-1) scored just a point short of their season high and lowered their points allowed average to 12.3 per game in winning a third-straight Regional title. L’Anse Creuse finished 7-5 after winning its first District title two weekends ago.

11-Player Division 3

HEADLINER Muskegon 27, Zeeland West 20 This matchup came down to one score again after West had won the Week 5 meeting 38-36. Big Reds quarterback M’Khi Guy – a member of the MHSAA Student Advisory Council – ran for three touchdowns including the eventual game winner. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Regional Report DeWitt 29, Linden 16 The Panthers (9-3) are headed to the Semifinals for the fifth-straight season after becoming only the second team this fall to hold Linden (7-5) under 21 points. Mason 49, Trenton 30 The Bulldogs (12-0) clinched their second-straight Regional title with quarterback Cason Carswell tossing six touchdown passes to keep his team a step ahead of the Trojans (10-2), who finished their first double-digit win season since 1998. Detroit Martin Luther King 22, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 12 The Crusaders (8-3) are headed to their seventh Semifinal in eight seasons with quarterback Dante Moore rushing for two second-half touchdowns after Rice (5-6) led at halftime.

11-Player Division 4

HEADLINER Grand Rapids South Christian 28, Whitehall 21 A back-and-forth matchup of undefeated teams ended with South Christian claiming its first Regional title since 2014 and after falling short in Regional Finals the last two seasons. The Sailors (12-0) put up the last two scores for the final margin. Whitehall finished its winningest season at 11-1. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Regional Report Edwardsburg 24, Hastings 14 The Eddies (11-1) won their third-straight Regional title and seventh over the last nine seasons with another lockdown defensive performance as Hastings entered averaging 41 points per game. The Saxons (10-2) completed their first double-digit win season. Goodrich 40, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 20 The Martians are first-time Regional champions after scoring first and following quarterback Gavin Hart to their third 40-point scoring performance over the last four games. The Eaglets finished 5-6. Riverview 45, Dearborn Divine Child 35 The Pirates (12-0) won their first Regional title since 2017 as Jacob Shank ran for 251 yards and five scores, the last after Divine Child (9-3) had pulled within three points of the lead.

11-Player Division 5

HEADLINER Gladwin 26, Muskegon Oakridge 8 After trailing by two points at the break, Gladwin (12-0) scored 20 unanswered during the second half to win its first Regional title since 1998 and extend its winningest season. Only Whitehall had held the Eagles (10-2) to single digits this season as they reached 10 wins for the second time in four years and first since 2019. Click for more from the Midland Daily News.

Regional Roundup Grand Rapids Catholic Central 42, Portland 19 Quarterback Connor Wolf and running back Kellen Russell-Dixon provided much of the offense’s firepower as GRCC (11-1) won its seventh-straight Regional title. The Cougars also held Portland (10-2) to its fewest points in a game this fall. Frankenmuth 49, Flint Hamady 7 Griffin Barker ran for 114 yards and two touchdowns and caught a third as the Eagles (12-0) won their third-straight Regional championship. Hamady’s two winningest seasons have come over the last five, as this year’s 10-2 finish joined the 2018 team’s 11-1 at the top of the list. Detroit Country Day 44, Flat Rock 7 After just missing last season, Country Day (8-3) is headed back to the Semifinals for the third time in four seasons and coming off its highest-scoring showing this fall. The Yellowjackets also held Flat Rock to its season low. The Rams did finish with plenty to celebrate, as their 8-4 record came after four straight sub-.500 seasons.

11-Player Division 6

HEADLINER Clinton 31, Warren Michigan Collegiate 30 The Redwolves (12-0) came back from a double-digit deficit to edge last season’s Division 6 runner-up and move on to the Semifinals for the second time in three seasons. A pair of late scores put Clinton over the top, including the eventual game-winner with 1:29 to play. Michigan Collegiate finished 10-2 and stands 21-5 over the last two seasons. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Regional Roundup Negaunee 18, Gladstone 12 The Braves made this rematch closer than Negaunee’s 24-6 win in Week 7, but the Miners (12-0) won their first Regional title since 2003 by holding on for only their second single-digit win – and first since opening night – of a stellar season. Gladstone finished 9-3, its winningest run since 2008. Reed City 6, Millington 0 Both defenses were stellar as Reed City entered averaging 47 points per game and Millington 44. But the Coyotes got all the points their needed on a third-quarter score to reach the Semifinals for the first time since 2017. Millington finished 10-2, their second-straight season with 10 wins. Grand Rapids West Catholic 37, Lansing Catholic 7 The Falcons (11-1) continue to climb as they reached 11 wins and won their first Regional title both since 2017. Lansing Catholic finished 6-6 after winning four straight entering the weekend.

Grand Rapids Catholic Central's Kellen Russell-Dixon (23) holds off a Portland defender during his team's Division 5 Regional Final win.

11-Player Division 7

HEADLINER Napoleon 14, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 7 The Pirates are headed to the Semifinals for the first time, continuing a memorable rise that saw Napoleon go 1-6 two seasons ago and just miss the playoffs last year at 6-3. The Pirates (12-0) have given up just 20 points over their last four games – the Big 8/Cascades champions crossover and three playoff matchups. Monroe St. Mary finished 6-6 after winning four straight entering the weekend. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

Regional Roundup Traverse City St. Francis 63, Ithaca 0 Of many impressive wins this season, this one might top the list as St. Francis (12-0) posted its first shutout and scored its season high against an Ithaca team that was averaging nearly 44 points per game. The Yellowjackets finished 10-2, their winningest season since 2017. New Lothrop 29, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 20 The Hornets (10-2) are headed back to the Semifinals for the second time in three seasons, thanks in part to a defense that held Laker to half its 41-ppg scoring average entering the game. Laker’s 10-2 finish was its best since posting the same record in 2017. Jackson Lumen Christi 7, Lawton 6 After Lawton (9-3) won last year’s Semifinal matchup 21-20, Lumen Christi (9-3) will move on this time after a second-half touchdown and extra point – and after blocking Lawton’s extra-point attempt after a first-half score.

11-Player Division 8

HEADLINER Iron Mountain 34, Evart 33 The Mountaineers (11-1) came back from a double-digit deficit to edge Evart and earn their second Regional title in four seasons. Iron Mountain hadn’t given up more than 19 points in a game this season, but Evart built a three-touchdown lead before the Mountaineers got rolling – their 34 points were the most Evart had given up this fall as well. The Wildcats finished 10-2, their first season reaching double-digit victories. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Regional Roundup Ubly 49, Fowler 7 The Bearcats’ only loss the last two seasons was in last year’s Semifinal, and they’ll get to return to that round this weekend after halting a Fowler offense that was scoring 32 points per game entering the weekend. Ubly is 12-0, and the Eagles finished 10-2. Ottawa Lake Whiteford 38, White Pigeon 26 The Bobcats (12-0) repeated as Regional champions in winning their closest game this fall, ending White Pigeon’s run at 8-4 after the latter had opened 2-3 but won six straight to reach this point. Clarkston Everest Collegiate 30, Sterling Heights Parkway Christian 6 These Mountaineers (9-3) earned a rematch with Whiteford after losing to the Bobcats in last season’s Regional Final. Parkway finished 6-6, a solid jump from 3-6 a year ago – and after starting the season 1-5.

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PHOTOS (Top) A Dexter ball carrier works to break free from a Midland tackler during their Division 2 Regional Final. (Middle) Grand Rapids Catholic Central's Kellen Russell-Dixon (23) holds off a Portland defender during his team's Division 5 Regional Final win. (Top photo courtesy of Midland High's athletic department. Middle photo by High School Sports Scene.)