Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Two Years After Losing Title Chance, Hemlock Ends 2022-23 with Biggest Win
By
Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com
March 18, 2023
EAST LANSING – As Regan Finkbeiner exited the court Saturday during the final seconds of Hemlock’s MHSAA Division 3 Final triumph, she was hit with a mix of emotions.
The senior guard let the happy one take over, screaming in celebration to the Huskies student section, which screamed back in acknowledgement.
“I didn’t know if I was crying happy tears or sad tears because I’m done with basketball after this,” Finkbeiner said. “I don’t really know how I was feeling. I was crying because I was happy, crying because I was sad. I was just proud. Just proud of our community that was all there. I’m just glad that I’m ending it on a win.”
Finkbeiner had a game-high 19 points to lead Hemlock to a 59-43 win against Blissfield. It was the first girls basketball title for the Huskies, who were making their first appearance in the Finals.
“It’s kind of surreal,” Hemlock coach Scott Neumeyer said. “I’m just so proud of this team, especially the seniors. I was really happy for how they approached this whole tournament run. We had a brutal, brutal schedule to get here. I’m just happy for how they persevered and how they led this team.”
Prior to this season, Hemlock (26-3) had made just two trips to the Semifinals, the latest cut short before it could start due to COVID-19 after the team had advanced to championship weekend in 2021.
This year’s team took nothing for granted, and Neumeyer praised the business-like approach.
“People offered to do pep assemblies for them, to get them charter buses and limos and all this stuff,” Neumeyer said. “And they were like, ‘Nope, we’re taking the yellow school bus and we’re going down to the Breslin. We’re taking our lunch pail, and we’re going to work.’ And that’s the way I like it.”
That was apparent in the Final against Blissfield, as – outside of foul trouble – the Huskies did the things that win big games.
They forced 17 turnovers while committing just six. They were 22 of 25 from the free throw line, including 15 of 17 in the fourth quarter to salt the game away.
Much of that came from senior guard Chloe Watson, who hit 11 of her 13 free throw attempts in the game, on her way to 18 points.
Watson and Finkbeiner also were able to dribble away much of the fourth quarter as Blissfield was chasing a double-digit deficit.
“Chloe and Regan just played a great game of keep away,” Neumeyer said. “I’m going to record that and show my kids how to keep the ball away from people for about five minutes. They also knocked down free throws, and that’s no accident, because these guys work on free throws like crazy.”
Lauren Borsenik added 16 points and seven rebounds for the Huskies before fouling out early in the fourth quarter. She and her sister Hannah, who had four points and seven rebounds, gave the Huskies a balance that proved too much for Blissfield.
“Their competitiveness – they are warriors on the court, and they play with a little bit of an edge,” Neumeyer said of the Borsenik sisters, both juniors who joined Hemlock this season. “I thought today was a very physical game, and I’m not sure without them that we don’t lose that street fight, if you will, because it was a very physical game.”
The game was close through the first half, as Hemlock held a 25-20 lead at the break. But the Huskies stretched the lead to double digits in the third quarter, and kept Blissfield at arm’s length the rest of the way.
“There was a lot of moments where I thought we were one play away to get back into the game,” Blissfield coach Ryan Gilbert said. “Just a big play away, then get a stop and a score. We were talking about that in the huddle. Then it just kind of slowly mounted. We ran out of gas.”
Julia White led Blissfield in her final game with 14 points and 14 rebounds. Junior guard Avery Collins had 17 points to lead the Royals in scoring.
Blissfield finished 28-2 and was making its first Finals appearance since 1973.
“I couldn’t have asked for a greater senior season,” Blissfield senior forward Sarah Bettis said. “We had kind of been building for this year forever, and people had been telling us that we were going to go far. We didn’t really make it our focus, we just took it one game at a time, but ultimately it led us here. I’m really grateful for this program. It’s meant everything to me since kindergarten. I remember just waiting for the day that I could finally play and put on the uniform. It’s still a little surreal; it doesn’t feel like it should be over.”
PHOTOS (Top) Hemlock's Chloe Watson (11) sends up a jumper with Blissfield's June Miller defending Saturday at Breslin Center. (Middle) Huskies coach Scott Neumeyer holds up the championship trophy to his team and fans. (Below) Watson dribbles away from pressure as Blissfield's Sarah Bettis (10) pursues.