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Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
![Hudsonville Unity Christian’s Cody Walters (20) works to gain possession during Wednesday’s Division 3 Semifinal win over Alma.](/sites/default/files/2023-11/231103_soccer_2H.png)
Preview: Finals Featuring Frequent Favorites, All in 1 'Grand' Location
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
November 3, 2023
The eight teams playing in Saturday’s MHSAA Boys Soccer Finals have combined to win 42 championships and finish runners-up 16 times.
And yet, this should be a new experience for anyone who has followed the sport at our state’s high school level.
After being split up at two sites for the last several years, all four championship matches will be played at Grand Ledge High School, kicking off at 10 a.m. with the next title deciders at 12:30 p.m., 3 and 5:30 p.m.
Tickets cost $11 and may be purchased online only at GoFan. All four Finals also will be broadcast and available with subscription from MHSAA.tv.
Below is a glance at all eight contenders, with statistics through Regionals:
Division 1
BRIGHTON
Record/rank: 19-3-2, No. 14
Michigan Power Rating: No. 23
Coach: Mark Howell, seventh season (84-30-2)
League finish: Second in Kensington Lakes Activities Association West
Championship history: Division 1 runner-up 1998.
Players to watch: Devlin McGinnis, jr. F (22 goals, 6 assists); Owen Buckley, jr. F (7 goals, 8 assists), Colin Robertson, sr. F (8 goals, 15 assists); Charlie Burchfield, sr. GK (0.40 goals-against average).
Outlook: After winning its first Regional title since 2005, Brighton has reached its first championship game in 25 years thanks to a 3-1 win over No. 9 Rockford in Wednesday’s Semifinal. The Bulldogs are undefeated since Sept. 16, a stretch of 14 games with only one draw among them, and they swept No. 2 Northville this fall among other highlights. Howell was a standout keeper for the Bulldogs, graduating in 2001 and then playing at Western Michigan, and his team has 13 shutouts including four over six postseason games. McGinnis earned an all-state honorable mention last season.
TROY ATHENS
Record/rank: 19-3-2, No. 3
Michigan Power Rating: No. 5
Coach: Todd Heugh, 13th season (213-44-27)
League finish: Third in Oakland Activities Association Red
Championship history: Five MHSAA titles (most recent 2019), two runner-up finishes.
Players to watch: Adriano Shauya, sr. M/F (18 goals, 3 assists); Marc Delikat, jr. M (10 goals, 6 assists), Daniel Kadiu, sr. M (9 goals, 6 assists), Adam Ethridge, sr. GK (0.52 goals-against average).
Outlook: Athens has plenty of experience playing during the final week, with its Regional title this season its fourth in eight years but first since 2020. The Red Hawks opened this season 3-3-2 but have won 16 straight games and emerged from an OAA Red that also included top-ranked Berkley, No. 7 Oxford, No. 8 Clarkston and No. 10 Rochester Adams. Athens defeated Berkley 5-2 in a District Semifinal and No. 2 Northville 3-2 in overtime Wednesday to advance to this weekend. Senior defender Brody Fahnestock (8 goals/2 assists) and senior forward Miguel Ramirez Vanegas (5/6) are among other top contributors.
Division 2
GRAND RAPIDS CHRISTIAN
Record/rank: 17-5-2, No. 7
Michigan Power Rating: No. 11
Coach: Aric Dersham, fourth season (57-20-9)
League finish: Fourth in Ottawa-Kent Conference White
Championship history: Three MHSAA titles (most recent 2021).
Players to watch: Jackson Mindling, sr. F/M (27 goals, 9 assists), John Cassiday, jr. F (13 goals, 7 assists), Peter Borst, jr. M (8 goals, 5 assists), Christian Dersham, sr. GK (0.71 goals-against average).
Outlook: The Eagles are playing in their second Final in three seasons, with a 2-1 win over top-ranked (and 2022 Division 3 champion) Holland Christian sending them to the championship match. Grand Rapids Christian also defeated No. 4 Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 3-1 in the District Final and No. 3 Fruitport 1-0 in the Regional championship match, and the Eagles haven’t allowed more than one goal in any of their eight straight victories. Freshman Liam Jansen is another notable contributor with seven goals and three assists through the Regional.
MASON
Record/rank: 13-2-5, No. 12
Michigan Power Rating: No. 7
Coach: Jacob Derby, sixth season (57-48-15)
League finish: First in Capital Area Activities Conference Red
Championship history: Four MHSAA titles (most recent 2015), one runner-up finish.
Players to watch: Blendi Jahiri, jr. M (17 goals, 16 assists); Lucas Nay, sr. M (11 goals, 16 assists); Collin Winters, jr. M (6 goals, 11 assists); Mendi Rexhepi, jr. F (11 goals, 4 assists).
Outlook: Mason reached the season’s final week for the first time since that last championship season, defeating No. 6 Riverview 2-1 in a Regional Semifinal along the way and Warren De La Salle Collegiate 3-2 in a shootout Wednesday to advance. The team’s only losses were to Division 3 No. 6 Grosse Ile and Division 1 Holt, and sophomore keeper Mikey Krysiak entered the week giving up only 0.53 goals per game. Nay made the all-state second team last season, and Jahiri earned an honorable mention. Derby was a three-time all-state keeper for the Bulldogs before graduating in 2011.
Division 3
DETROIT COUNTRY DAY
Record/rank: 19-2-2, No. 1
Michigan Power Rating: No. 2
Coach: Steve Bossert, ninth season (131-47-20)
League finish: Does not play in a conference.
Championship history: 15 MHSAA titles (most recent 2018), one runner-up finish.
Players to watch: Finn Hounsell, jr. GK (0.65 goals-against average); Zach Rodger, sr. M (15 goals, 7 assists); Stephen Brentano, sr. M (7 goals, 9 assists); Andrew Brentano, sr. M (2 goals, 6 assists).
Outlook: After ending last season with a Semifinal loss to Grosse Ile, Country Day took the next step again to reach the season’s last day. This tournament run has included a 2-1 win over the Red Devils in a Regional Semifinal, a 2-0 shutout of No. 5 Pontiac Notre Dame Prep in the District Final and a 3-0 shutout of No. 4 Flint Powers Catholic on Wednesday. Hounsell and Rodger made the all-state second team last season, while both Bretanos made the third team and junior defender Alex Eby (2 goals/6 assists) earned an honorable mention. Senior forward Andrew Vartanian also was tied for second on the team entering this week with nine goals.
HUDSONVILLE UNITY CHRISTIAN
Record/rank: 20-2-1, No. 2
Michigan Power Rating: No. 1
Coach: Ian Billin, second season (33-6-4)
League finish: Third in O-K Blue
Championship history: Five MHSAA titles (most recent 2018), four runner-up finishes.
Players to watch: Colin Nieuwenhuis, sr. M/F (31 goals, 6 assists); Jack Kamminga, soph. M/F (9 goals, 7 assists), Eli Groggel, sr. F (6 goals, 2 assists); Alen Deppe, fr. GK (1.02 goals-against average).
Outlook: This will be Unity’s first trip to the Finals under former standout Billin, who returned after college soccer to coach the junior varsity and took over the varsity from longtime leader Randy Heethuis a year ago. Unity ended last season in the District Semifinal against Grand Rapids South Christian, but avenged that loss with a 3-2 shutout win over the No. 7 Sailors in last week’s Regional Final and also defeated No. 14 Wyoming Godwin Heights 7-1, No. 3 Hartford 2-0 and No. 8 Alma 3-0 on the way to Grand Ledge. Nieuwenhuis made the all-state second team last season.
Division 4
MADISON HEIGHTS BISHOP FOLEY
Record/rank: 18-3-1, No. 7
Michigan Power Rating: No. 12
Coach: Nino Maniaci, sixth season (68-40-11)
League finish: First in Detroit Catholic League Intersectional 2
Championship history: Two MHSAA titles (most recent 1997), one runner-up finish.
Players to watch: Ben Barrett, sr. F (12 goals, 6 assists); Jake Nihranz, sr. F (15 goals, 7 assists); Connor Fitzpatrick, sr. M (3 goals, 14 assists); Dylan Barbieri, sr. D (7 goals, 9 assists).
Outlook: Bishop Foley won its first Regional title since that last championship season, and Maniaci has been building the Ventures back up to this moment leading them to a third-straight District title this fall along the way. Two of the team’s defeats were to No. 2 Grosse Pointe Woods University Liggett and Royal Oak Shrine Catholic, and Bishop Foley avenged both defeating Shrine 2-0 in the District Final and Liggett 1-0 in a shootout in the Regional Final before then defeating No. 4 Kalamazoo Hackett Catholic Prep 2-1 in overtime Wednesday to advance. Barrett earned an all-state honorable mention last season. Senior midfielders Aidan Letzring (7 goals/8 assists) and Matthew Totty (6/8) are among other contributors, and senior Greg Altman (1.19 GAA) mans the net.
MUSKEGON WESTERN MICHIGAN CHRISTIAN
Record/rank: 20-2-3, No. 1
Michigan Power Rating: No. 6
Coach: Ben Buursma, fourth season (58-26-7)
League finish: Second in Alliance League
Championship history: Eight MHSAA titles (most recent 2022), seven runner-up finishes.
Players to watch: Cole DeJonge, jr. M (8 goals, 21 assists); Charlie Buursma, sr. M/F (16 goals, 13 assists); Tekalegn Vlasma, jr. F/M (21 goals, 7 assists); Ben Pollock, sr. F/M (15 goals, 13 assists).
Outlook: Western Michigan Christian is seeking its second-straight championship and third in five seasons, and they’ve reached this weekend with five shutouts in six postseason games including a 3-0 win over No. 8 Leland in the Semifinal after another 3-0 shutout of No. 12 Grandville Calvin Christian in the Regional Final. Led by junior keeper Daniel Minasian, WMC has allowed only 13 goals all season while scoring 96. Senior Lucas Dick has been another scoring leader with nine goals and nine assists at the start of this week. Charlie Buursma and DeJonge both made the all-state third team last season.
PHOTO Hudsonville Unity Christian’s Cody Walters (20) works to gain possession during Wednesday’s Division 3 Semifinal win over Alma. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)