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Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
![Negaunee's Keira Waterman goes up for a shot while being defended by Ishpeming Westwood's Makayla Fisher (1) and Kaylin Doney (30) during a Dec. 21 win.](/sites/default/files/2024-01/240108_gbb_2H.png)
Breslin Bound: 2023-24 Girls Report Post-Break
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
January 8, 2024
A new year can allow for a fresh start as teams come back from holiday break.
But several of Michigan’s best girls basketball teams will want to remember what they accomplished during this season’s first month – and especially over these last few weeks.
Most have played anywhere from a quarter to nearly half of their regular-season schedules, and 43 teams enter this week still undefeated. Another 82 have only one loss.
A handful are highlighted below as “Breslin Bound” also begins again, powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com.
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Detroit Edison 48, Parma Western 45 (OT) Edison (7-0) has played only three in-state opponents so far, and its scares over the last few seasons from Michigan teams have been fewer still, but the Pioneers handled this one to win the Parma Western Holiday Tournament over the host Panthers (4-5).
2. Goodrich 46, Hemlock 32 The Martians (8-0) haven’t lost since reaching the Division 2 Semifinals last season, and over the last month they’ve followed up avenging that Breslin loss to Frankenmuth on Dec. 19 with this win Dec. 29 over the reigning Division 3 champ Huskies (5-2) at the Michigan Hardwood Classic at Romulus.
3. Rockford 71, Grand Rapids West Catholic 57 This win to open the Cornerstone University Holiday Tournament Gold bracket over another 2023 Division 2 semifinalist in the Falcons (6-1) was sandwiched between wins over Frankenmuth and then Chelsea in the Gold championship game.
4. Niles Brandywine 45, Blissfield 43 The Bobcats (5-0) handed reigning Division 3 runner-up Blissfield (5-1) its lone loss of the season, also at the Hardwood Classic.
5. Ypsilanti Arbor Prep 51, Lowell 46 Arbor Prep (7-2) finished a successful holiday break run by handing Lowell (6-1) its lone loss, at the West Michigan Hoop Summit at Aquinas College.
Watch List
With an eye toward March, here are two teams in each division making sparks:
DIVISION 1
Canton (7-0) Canton finished 11-13 a year ago, but that record may not have told the entire story; the team plays in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West and finished sixth behind five teams that all won at least 14 games. Six losses by six or fewer points seem to be going the other way, as Canton has close wins over Macomb Dakota and Bloomfield Hills, the former Dakota’s only loss. A 49-41 win over Plymouth on Friday sent the Wildcats to 7-2.
Rockford (7-0) The reigning Division 1 champion has been nothing short of excellent during its encore with wins over Frankenmuth, West Catholic and Chelsea – see above – plus notable victories of more than 20 points over Byron Center and Muskegon. The West Catholic victory avenged last season’s lone loss, as Rockford now has won 30 straight games.
DIVISION 2
Goodrich (8-0) The Martians are rivaling Rockford’s impressiveness with the wins noted above against Frankenmuth and Hemlock plus a 10-pointer over Kingston – the Cardinals’ only loss – and wins on back-to-back nights last week by 20 over Farmington Hills Mercy and two over Grand Blanc. Lake Fenton dealt Goodrich three of its four losses last season, and they meet for the first time Jan. 19.
Negaunee (9-0) The Miners have hovered between Divisions 2 and 3 the last few seasons and moved back into Division 2 after reaching the Division 3 Regional Finals a year ago. Negaunee already has defeated all four opponents it lost to last season – Escanaba, Houghton, Hancock and Calumet – and the Miners won their Christmas Tournament by handing the only loss this season to Manton and then defeating reigning Division 4 runner-up Baraga 63-48.
DIVISION 3
Manton (8-1) As noted above, Manton’s only loss came at Negaunee 57-50 – and among its eight wins, four have come against teams that defeated Manton last season as the Rangers finished 7-14. They’ve also stormed out to a 5-0 start in the Highland Conference and play Roscommon on Friday for the league lead.
Sanford Meridian (5-0) After going 20-2 last season, but running into Hemlock in the District Final, Meridian is picking up where it left off. The Mustangs have won by an average margin of 36.2 points per game, including impressively over Jack Pine Conference opponents Clare and Beaverton (both 5-2). Meridian won the league last season, and reigning runner-up Farwell comes to Sanford on Thursday.
DIVISION 4
Fowler (6-1) The Eagles opened with a 55-47 loss to Division 1 Midland Dow, but haven’t lost since despite facing two of their biggest Central Michigan Athletic Conference rivals and a New Lothrop team expected to contend in the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference. Fowler reached the Division 4 Semifinals and has played at Breslin the last three seasons but is seeking its first league title since 2021; its first game with reigning CMAC champ Dansville is Jan. 24.
Martin (6-1) Handing Kalamazoo Hackett Catholic Prep a 40-35 loss Dec. 12 no doubt was a plus; the Irish ended Martin’s 2022-23 in a District Final. But the best win so far arguably came 10 days later, 32-27 over Saugatuck, which is perhaps the biggest threat as Martin seeks to repeat in the Southwestern Athletic Conference Central.
Can’t-Miss Contests
Be on the lookout for results of these games coming up:
Tuesday – Portland (7-0) at Lansing Catholic (3-3) – The eventual Division 2 champion Cougars were first and Portland second in the Capital Area Activities Conference White last season, with Lansing Catholic winning both meetings by more than 20 points.
Thursday – Michigan Center (8-0) at Grass Lake (6-2) – These two and Leslie look like early favorites in the Cascades Conference East. Grass Lake’s two losses are by a combined three points to Division 1 Saline and Division 2 Parma Western.
Friday – Salem (6-1) at Canton (7-0) – Salem won all three matchups with its neighbor last season, first earning the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West championship and with the last to claim a District title.
Friday – Lowell (6-1) at Byron Center (7-2) – Byron Center won 22 games and the Ottawa-Kent Conference White title last season, sweeping third-place Lowell – which still went on to win 18 games and a District title.
Friday – Ishpeming (5-0) at Negaunee (9-0) – Negaunee claimed last season’s meetings by nine and then one point on the way to finishing just ahead of the Hematites in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference East.
MHSAA.com's weekly “Breslin Bound” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a division within the Department of Lifelong Education, Advancement, and Potential (MiLEAP). MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTOS (Top) Negaunee's Keira Waterman goes up for a shot while being defended by Ishpeming Westwood's Makayla Fisher (1) and Kaylin Doney (30) during a Dec. 21 win. (Middle) Marysville’s Avery Wolters passes to a teammate on the perimeter during her team’s loss to Davison at the Skippers Holiday Showcase on Dec. 28 at St. Clair County Community College. (Photos by Cara Kamps and Terry Lyons, respectively.)