Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Davis Twins Putting Finishing Touches on Doubly Sensational West Bloomfield Legacy
By
Keith Dunlap
Special for MHSAA.com
January 25, 2024
Indya and Summer Davis are like most twins in that it often is hard to tell their differences.
But each definitely is her own person, especially off of the court.
Indya likes fish and lasagna, while Summer doesn’t.
Summer’s favorite color is blue, while Indya prefers pink.
Indya’s favorite music artist is Brent Faivaz, while Summer likes Kanye West.
There are also some subtle differences on the basketball court too as they proceed through their senior year at West Bloomfield.
While both are 5-foot-9, Indya spends more of her time in the paint dominating the boards and getting points in the post, while Summer is sharp shooting from the outside and helps facilitate the offense.
“I’m more on the arc than she is,” Summer Davis said. “She is more like an inside player, but she can (play the perimeter) too. With most of the positions how they are (on the team), she is more on the inside.”
However, just like they complement each other off the court, they have brilliantly done the same for the past three seasons in taking the West Bloomfield girls basketball program to new heights.
As sophomores, the duo was the centerpiece of a West Bloomfield team that won the Division 1 championship, the first in program history. The twins were better last year as juniors, but couldn’t quite help lead the Lakers to a repeat with a 40-36 loss to Rockford in the championship game at Breslin Center.
Even better and hungrier this year as seniors, the Davis twins not only form the best tandem on a team in the state, but they might end up as each other’s biggest competition for the Miss Basketball Award.
It’s certainly hard to tell them apart on the court, and that has everything to do with their games and not solely focusing on the fact they are identical twins.
The two might have different roles at the moment in West Bloomfield’s system, but if you asked them to reverse roles with Indya moving to the perimeter and Summer inside, they would likely thrive just as much.
“We’re definitely all-around players,” Indya Davis said.
West Bloomfield head coach Darrin McAllister said that has been the case since he first met the twins as middle schoolers playing in the Michigan Storm AAU program.
McAllister said the Davis twins were like sponges back then wanting to absorb as much knowledge as they could, even if McAllister wasn’t technically their coach because he was presiding over an older-aged team within the program.
“I think they were about sixth or seventh grade,” McAllister said. “After every practice, they would come up to me and say, ‘Hey can you show me this? Can you show me that?’ To be honest with you, I was tired and ready to go home, but these little kids wanted to learn. They continued to come in and bug me about little things. Some of the moves we worked on when they were in sixth and seventh grade, they’re executing right now.”
Summer Davis said she has always had basketball as her No. 1 sport, but Indya said she did dabble a bit in tennis and gymnastics when she was younger.
By the time they were 10 years old, they decided to focus solely on basketball, and the rest is history.
Following Friday’s game against Oxford, Summer leads the team in scoring at 17.2 points per game, assists at 4.9 a contest, and steals at 5.3 a game.
Indya Davis is averaging just over 15 points a game to go along with 6.6 rebounds for a West Bloomfield team that is 9-0. The stats would probably be even higher, but the Lakers haven’t played in many close games this year and the twins’ minutes have been limited. West Bloomfield also gets significant contributions from senior Kendall Hendrix, another future Division I college player who has signed with Loyola Chicago.
Once their high school careers are over, the Davis twins will continue to play together at Georgia. The twins originally committed to Michigan State, but decommitted after former head coach Suzy Merchant resigned.
While wanting to rack up stats and be 1-2 in the Miss Basketball voting, the two are also identical and aligned in their prime motivation for the rest of their final high school season.
That would be to get back on top of the state and avenge the loss to Rockford in last year’s Final.
“I think we’re more about the lesson we learned from it,” Indya Davis said. “How driven we are to come back stronger than we were. Look at where we made mistakes and what we can do better. Just come out harder than ever.”
As has been the case throughout their careers, two would be better than one when it comes to Division 1 championships for the Davis sisters and West Bloomfield.
Keith Dunlap has served in Detroit-area sports media for more than two decades, including as a sportswriter at the Oakland Press from 2001-16 primarily covering high school sports but also college and professional teams. His bylines also have appeared in USA Today, the Washington Post, the Detroit Free Press, the Houston Chronicle and the Boston Globe. He served as the administrator for the Oakland Activities Association’s website from 2017-2020. Contact him at [email protected] with story ideas for Oakland, Macomb and Wayne counties
PHOTOS (Top) West Bloomfield’s Summer Davis (23) brings the ball up the court during last season’s Division 1 Semifinal win over Salem, with sister Indya Davis (24) leading the way. (Middle) Summer, left, and Indya Davis last week.