Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Sullivan Returns to Court After Coaching, Sees Game In New Ways as Official
By
Doug Donnelly
Special for MHSAA.com
February 6, 2024
Gary Sullivan is getting a whole new perspective on basketball.
After 25 years of coaching the game on several levels – including the last six as the boys varsity coach at Blissfield Community Schools – Sullivan has replaced his school logo with stripes and a whistle. He’s enjoying his second basketball career, this time as a referee.
“I’m having a good time,” said Sullivan, who will retire this month as a teacher at Blissfield. “I’ve had fantastic experiences so far. I hope it stays that way.”
Sullivan is an Ohio native, having grown up just across the state line and attended Evergreen High School. After graduating from the University of Toledo, he landed a teaching job at Blissfield. Early on, he took a stab at officiating basketball.
“(Former Blissfield baseball coach) Larry Tuttle got me into it,” he said. “I did a few middle school and some junior varsity games. Then, when I became an athletic director pretty early in my career, I gave officiating up.”
He started coaching along the way, from youth sports to middle school basketball. He took over as the Blissfield varsity coach in 2016-17
After winning seven games over two seasons with an experienced roster, Blissfield rebounded with 12 wins in 2018-19 and 19 in 2019-20 – the most for Blissfield since 1992.
The Royals won Lenawee County Athletic Association and Division 2 District titles in 2021. The LCAA title was the first for the Royals since 2003, and the District championship was the first for the school since 2004. He won 60 games in all and earned two county Coach of the Year awards.
He stepped down as basketball coach two years ago.
It wasn’t long and he was being courted to help tackle the referee shortage in Michigan and across the country. His brother, Terry, is a basketball official in the Jackson area.
“When I was finished coaching, I started thinking about it again,” Sullivan said. “My brother does a ton of officiating in the Jackson area. He told me, ‘Just do it. It will be fun. What else are you going to do in the middle of the winter? You might as well referee.’ It gives you a chance to still be involved in the game.”
Initially, Sullivan figured he’d officiate a few middle school and junior varsity games. Once he got his feet wet and adjusted to life with the whistle, however, he was hooked.
“Last year was my first year – that was my intention, do middle school and some JV, maybe a couple of days a week,” he said. “Before I knew it, they were assigning me games left and right. The more I did it, the more I liked it. By the end of the year, they had the chance to assign a couple of varsity games. No one complained too awful bad, and they gave me a few more.”
With his basketball background, Sullivan found being a referee an outlet for his competitive nature.
“Being around basketball has made it much easier for me than someone who just comes in and, ‘Hey, I’ll try to do this,’ he said. “You are competing with yourself a little to make the right call and keep the game flowing along.”
There have been a few unexpected moments in the transition from coach to referee.
For one, Sullivan said, being on the court is a completely different perspective than being on the sidelines.
“It is so much faster when you have to run and follow that person than it is when you sit there and watch it,” Sullivan said. “When you have to run, get to your primary spot, then keep the peripheral vision going to watch everything, it's much faster, more difficult than I ever anticipated.”
Sullivan said certain aspects of the game are different, too.
“As a coach, I always anticipated what I thought was going to happen,” he said. “In your mind you know someone is going to travel, then as soon as they travel, you are yelling ‘Travel!’ As an official, it is better to be a second late and be correct than a second early and be wrong.
“To me, the toughest transition has been to slow down, wait for the actual play to let itself run its course. Make sure it really was a foul. Think about it. Don’t get in a rush to make the call.”
He’s grateful to other area officials who have helped him learn the tricks of the trade during either formal training sessions or by example. He’s had the chance to review some of his games on film, which has helped him dissect the game from a new angle. He’s also learned from coaching to block out fans and people from the crowd who might disagree with a call.
“I have not had a negative experience yet from a fan,” he said. “As a former coach, I put myself on double probation – I dished out enough that maybe I’m a little more tolerant than some other officials. That’s just my personality at this point.”
This year Sullivan has had a full schedule of middle school games plus about a dozen girls varsity basketball games and a handful of boys varsity games. The most recent was Friday in Ottawa Lake in front of a big crowd watching rivals Whiteford and Summerfield.
“That was a ton of fun – full house, competitive game. I was glad to be a part of it,” Sullivan said.
There’s another bonus to being an official. When the game is over, he can go home and sleep. No more late nights watching film or scouting for the upcoming opponent.
“My cats are much happier,” he said. “I’m not waking up at 4:30 in the morning and watching a film, then going back to bed. It’s fun. I’m enjoying it.”
Doug Donnelly has served as a sports and news reporter and city editor over 25 years, writing for the Daily Chief-Union in Upper Sandusky, Ohio from 1992-1995, the Monroe Evening News from 1995-2012 and the Adrian Daily Telegram since 2013. He's also written a book on high school basketball in Monroe County and compiles record books for various schools in southeast Michigan. E-mail him at [email protected] with story ideas for Jackson, Washtenaw, Hillsdale, Lenawee and Monroe counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Official Gary Sullivan monitors the action while working a boys basketball game at Ottawa Lake Whiteford. (Middle) Sullivan directs his team from the sideline during his tenure as Blissfield’s boys basketball coach. (Top photo by Mike Doughty; middle photo courtesy of the Adrian Daily Telegram.)