Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Breslin Bound: 2023-24 Girls Regional Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
March 11, 2024
We’re a week into this season’s girls basketball playoffs, with two weeks to go, and already our Breslin Center field is beginning to change up significantly from a year ago.
Last week’s Districts saw six of last season’s semifinalists – including the reigning Division 3 champion and Division 4 runner-up – finish their runs in this year’s tournament. Two more of those 2023 semifinalists are set to meet in a Regional Semifinal tonight, and several more face season-defining matchups over the next three days – and we detail some of those as we glance at three Regionals in each division below.
Ticket information, brackets and more can be found on the Girls Basketball page. To watch any of several games online, visit the NFHS Network.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com.
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Sanford Meridian 59, Hemlock 47 In defeating the reigning Division 3 champion Huskies (18-6), the Mustangs (22-1) continued one of the most impressive program turnarounds over the last half-decade; they were winless five years ago but have reached 20 victories all of the last three seasons.
2. Byron Center 47, East Kentwood 44 This was a matchup of Ottawa-Kent Conference division champions, and Byron Center (20-4) avenged a 58-52 season-opening loss to the Falcons (20-4).
3. Fowler 64, Portland St. Patrick 58 These rivals had split their regular-season series, as the Shamrocks (21-3) had won the middle meeting and the Central Michigan Athletic Conference title – but the Eagles (21-3) advanced to this week.
4. Grand Rapids West Catholic 43, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 36 This was another matchup of O-K Conference division winners, as West Catholic (23-1) added to its six-point win over the Cougars (17-7) from December.
5. Vicksburg 69, Paw Paw 57 These two also split during the regular season, with Vicksburg (21-2) winning the last two meetings to first clinch the Wolverine Conference title and this time end Paw Paw’s season at 21-3.
Regionals at a Glance
These could be among our most competitive brackets. Host sites are in bold:
DIVISION 1
Bloomfield Hills Marian
Grosse Pointe North (19-5) vs. Royal Oak (18-6)
Detroit Renaissance (21-3) vs. West Bloomfield (22-1)
Both Renaissance and West Bloomfield reached last season’s Division 1 Semifinals, but didn’t meet – Renaissance fell to Rockford to start the weekend before the Rams defeated West Bloomfield in the championship game the following day. The winner of their Regional Semifinal tonight will be the likely favorite to return to East Lansing from this quarter of the statewide bracket. West Bloomfield’s only loss was to an Ohio opponent, and Renaissance lost only to Detroit Edison (18-3), Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard (24-0) and Tecumseh (20-4). Grosse Pointe North and Royal Oak are intriguing spoilers with great storylines, however; GPN was a Regional champion last year that ran into Renaissance in the Quarterfinals, and Royal Oak has enjoyed a memorable rise from three wins only two seasons ago.
Mason
Holt (16-8) vs. DeWitt (22-2)
Portage Central (19-2) vs. Coldwater (21-3)
This Regional features a pair of league champions – DeWitt and Portage Central – and Central opened this season by winning its first 16 games, although the Mustangs did lose their regular-season finale to Coldwater, 44-28 on Feb. 29. The Cardinals are a repeat District champ after finishing runner-up to Jackson Northwest in the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference, and their win over the Mounties on Feb. 6 started a current eight-game winning streak. Holt and DeWitt are plenty familiar with each other on the other side of the bracket, the Panthers winning their matchups 52-37 and 54-41 in clinching the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue while the Rams tied for second place. DeWitt has some added motivation as well after falling to Holt in last season’s Regional Final. Holt and Coldwater also faced off earlier this season, with Coldwater winning 40-33 on Jan. 5.
Milford
Grand Blanc (19-4) vs. Howell (17-7)
Clarkston (18-6) vs. White Lake Lakeland (20-4)
After a first-game playoff exit a year ago, Lakeland is coming off its third District title in four seasons and seeking its first Regional championship to add as well to a shared Lakes Valley Conference title this winter. After winning the Saginaw Valley League for the first time, Grand Blanc also could take another next step as it seeks to follow up its fourth-straight District championship by winning what would be a first Regional title since 1977. Howell is a league champion as well, from the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West, and a return District champ. The Highlanders and Clarkston faced off Dec. 15, with the Wolves winning 51-48. Clarkston tied for second in the Oakland Activities Association Red, won by West Bloomfield, but avenged a Feb. 13 loss to Lake Orion in defeating the Dragons 41-40 in their District Final on Friday.
DIVISION 2
Alma
Alma (19-5) vs. Flint Powers Catholic (21-3)
Frankenmuth (22-2) vs. Freeland (21-3)
Powers finished third in the Saginaw Valley League to Grand Blanc and Midland Dow, losing only to those two Division 1 rivals and Division 3 contender Ypsilanti Arbor Prep, and is joined this week by the top three teams from the Tri-Valley Conference Red – champion Frankenmuth, runner-up Freeland and third-place Alma. The Eagles, last season’s Division 2 runners-up, defeated Freeland 53-51 and 54-49 this winter and Alma 57-44 and 58-18 – and also defeated Freeland in last year’s Regional Final. Alma dealt the Falcons their only other loss this season, 62-49 on Feb. 6 to avenge a 29-point loss from Jan. 9.
Charlotte
Tecumseh (20-4) vs. Parma Western (15-9)
Lansing Catholic (19-5) vs. Haslett (18-7)
The Cougars are the reigning Division 2 champions and on a nice run with seven wins over their last eight games, the only loss to Frankenmuth, and last week’s 56-37 District Final win over Portland avenging a seven-point loss to the Raiders from Feb. 13. Lansing Catholic also defeated Haslett 48-37 on Feb. 6, but the Vikings also are on an impressive streak of seven straight wins including a 69-68 overtime victory over Chelsea last week followed by a 56-43 win over Williamston that avenged two regular-season defeats. Haslett also defeated Parma Western 53-39 during this late surge, but the Panthers otherwise have won eight of their last 10 games. They did fall to Tecumseh 59-37 on Dec. 12, and Tecumseh has won 17 of its last 18 games – the lone loss during that string to Chelsea, but with notable wins over Detroit Renaissance and Jackson Northwest at the end of the regular season.
Goodrich
Armada (16-3) vs. Goodrich (24-0)
Warren Regina (12-13) vs. Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (23-0)
At least one team will end the season this week with its lone loss. Goodrich’s last defeat came in a Semifinal at Breslin Center a year ago, and half its wins during this regular season were over teams that finished with 14 victories or more heading into the playoffs. Armada finished second in the Blue Water Area Conference but won its District by avenging a loss to league champ Yale in a big way, 49-29. St. Mary’s opened this season with a 51-42 win over Warren Regina and went on to win the Catholic High School League AA and Cardinal Tournament championships. Regina had a rough start this winter but has won eight straight and defeated Macomb Area Conference Gold champion Marine City 49-35 in its District Final.
DIVISION 3
Onsted
Allen Park Cabrini (10-13) vs. Ypsilanti Arbor Prep (20-4)
Brooklyn Columbia Central (15-8) vs. Blissfield (22-2)
A Blissfield/Arbor Prep meeting in the Regional Final would be a rematch of last year’s won by Blissfield 50-38 on the way to finishing Division 3 runner-up. Blissfield’s only losses since were to Tecumseh and Niles Brandywine this winter, and the Royals have won 16 straight games. Blissfield also opened with a 57-42 win over Columbia Central, which went on to win the Cascades Conference West. Arbor Prep readied for this run with a regular-season schedule filled with Division 1 and 2 opponents, and the Gators’ only losses were to Division 1 Jackson Northwest and Division 2 Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard, Detroit Edison and Detroit Country Day. Cabrini has surged late to win a third District in a row.
St. Ignace
West Iron County (14-11) vs. Harbor Springs (22-2)
Elk Rapids (22-2) vs. Roscommon (17-7)
Harbor Springs and Elk Rapids shared the Lake Michigan Conference championship, Elk Rapids winning the first meeting 61-51 and Harbor Springs the rematch 48-41 on Jan. 30. Elk Rapids also won their District Final matchup a year ago on the way to the Quarterfinals. Roscommon could throw off the rematch scenario, emerging from a tie for fourth in the Highland Conference, which sent three teams into this week. West Iron also brings some intrigue with nine wins over its last 11 games including a 52-42 District Semifinal victory over Calumet that avenged one of the losses during this recent run.
Sanford Meridian
Manton (19-5) vs. Lake City (22-2)
Sanford Meridian (22-1) vs. Morley Stanwood (19-4)
Sanford Meridian might be riding as high as any team in the state after avenging its 2023 District loss with a 59-47 win over reigning Division 3 champion Hemlock to close last week. Lake City and Manton finished first and second, respectively, in a Highland Conference that produced three District champions, and Lake City won their matchups 68-34 and 39-27 and also owns a 49-37 win over Morley Stanwood from Jan. 3. Four of Manton’s five defeats were to eventual District winners, and the fifth to a team that reached its title game last week. Morley Stanwood won the Central State Activities Association and defeated TVC White champion St. Louis in another notable District Final.
DIVISION 4
Marquette (for Regional Final)
Ewen-Trout Creek (19-5) vs. Lake Linden-Hubbell (23-1) at Houghton
Ishpeming (23-1) vs. Carney-Nadeau (18-6) at Kingsford
Lake Linden-Hubbell is seeking its first Regional title, and Ishpeming its first since 1985 – and there are challenges on both sides of the bracket. Carney-Nadeau is a league champion, from the Skyline Central Conference Small schools division, and Ewen-Trout Creek finished third to 2023 Division 4 champion Baraga and Lake Linden-Hubbell in the Copper Mountain Conference, pushing the Lakes in a 59-55 overtime game Jan. 11. Lake Linden-Hubbell’s lone defeat was to Baraga (19-5), while Ishpeming’s was to Division 2 Negaunee (23-1).
Mendon
Concord (19-5) vs. Colon (22-2)
St. Joseph Michigan Lutheran (10-14) vs. Mendon (21-3)
Colon won the Southern Central Athletic Association West thanks in part to 54-31 and 51-47 wins over runner-up Mendon, and the Magi defeated Concord 61-47 on Feb. 24. Colon and Mendon also have met during the postseason the last four years, with Colon winning three of those meetings. Mendon’s only other loss this winter was to Division 1 Sturgis, 43-38, while Concord’s other four were to larger schools as the Yellow Jackets finished second in the Big 8 Conference. Michigan Lutheran won its third District title over the last four seasons edging Three Oaks River Valley 30-29 in last week’s decider.
Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart
Bay City All Saints (19-5) vs. Breckenridge (18-6)
Brethren (19-5) vs. Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (21-3)
This Regional includes a pair of league champions. All Saints won the North Central Thumb League Stripes and navigated a competitive District with wins of two and three points to advance. Brethren was the West Michigan D League champion and advanced with wins over a pair of league opponents, including 48-36 over WMDL runner-up Manistee Catholic Central in the District Final. Breckenridge and Sacred Heart played together in the Mid-State Activities Conference and finished third and second, respectively, to St. Charles. If the MSAC rivals meet again, it will be noted that Sacred Heart won their first matchup 50-34 and the Huskies the second 40-24 on Feb. 7
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PHOTOS (Top) Negaunee's Callie Rajala goes up for a shot while being defended by Ishpeming Westwood's Lexi Olson during the Miners’ 65-33 win Dec. 21. (Middle) Goodrich moves the ball upcourt during its second of three wins over Lake Fenton this season, 61-48 on Feb. 16. (Top photo by Cara Kamps; middle photo by Terry Lyons.)