Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Breslin Bound: 2023-24 Girls Quarterfinal Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
March 18, 2024
The home stretch of this Michigan high school girls basketball season – and the MHSAA winter season as a whole – begins tonight with Quarterfinals across the state.
We glance at all 16 matchups below. Games tip off at 7 p.m. unless noted. Details on tickets, brackets and more can be found on the Girls Basketball page. To watch all 16 games online, visit the NFHS Network.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com. (Abbreviations below denote ppg - points per game, rpg - rebounds per game, apg - assists per game, spg - steals per game, and bpg - blocks per game.)
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
2. Tecumseh 56, Lansing Catholic 52 Tecumseh (22-4) advanced to this week by ending the season for last year’s Division 2 champion Cougars (20-6).
2. Lake City 54, Sanford Meridian 41 Lake City (24-2) still hasn’t taken a defeat since the first week of the season and downed a Meridian team in a Division 3 Regional Final that had lost only to Division 2 Freeland in finishing 23-2.
3. Flint Powers Catholic 62, Freeland 59 The Chargers (23-3) took on a Falcons team that finished 22-4 and was coming off its biggest win of the season over 2023 Division 2 runner-up Frankenmuth.
4. Holland West Ottawa 40, Byron Center 38 The Panthers (20-6) defeated a league champion in the Bulldogs (21-5) to earn a Division 1 rematch with Rockford.
5. West Bloomfield 61, Detroit Renaissance 48 This was a Division 1 Regional Semifinal but matched up two teams that reached the 2023 Semifinals in the Lakers (24-1) and Phoenix (21-4).
Quarterfinals at a Glance
DIVISION 1
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek (20-5) vs. Grand Blanc (21-4) at University of Detroit Mercy, 5:30 p.m.
Stoney Creek is playing in its first Quarterfinal and Grand Blanc its first since 1977. The Bobcats also won the Saginaw Valley League this season for the first time, and are led by senior guard Chelsea Bishop (17 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 4.2 spg). Stoney Creek has steadily built to this run and has broken through this season with just one senior in the starting lineup, guard Sarah Laprairie, and two total on the roster.
Holt (18-8) vs. Belleville (23-2) at Jackson Lumen Christi
Belleville has made good on its contender status all season, with freshman Sydney Savoury (25 ppg, 7.0 rpg) leading four Tigers scoring at least 10 points per game. Their only in-state loss was to Division 2 contender Detroit Edison. Holt has emerged during a tough tournament run that’s included handing the third losses all season to DeWitt and Portage Central. Senior guard Rhema Dozier has set the pace with 12.9 points per game and 57 3-pointers.
Rockford (25-1) vs. Holland West Ottawa (20-6) at Grandville
Reigning Division 1 champion Rockford defeated West Ottawa 61-42 and 70-54 on the way to winning the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red, while the Panthers finished third. Junior guard Anna Wypych averages 16 points per game and is joined by Grace Lyons (10 ppg), who became the Rams’ all-time leading scorer this season. West Ottawa counters with newly-selected Miss Basketball Award winner Gabby Reynolds. The senior guard is averaging 29.4 points and four assists per game.
Temperance Bedford (24-2) vs. West Bloomfield (24-1) at University of Detroit Mercy
West Bloomfield is playing for a third-straight trip to Breslin Center after winning Division 1 in 2022 and finishing runner-up a year ago. Standout twins Summer Davis (17.9 ppg, 68 3-pointers, 4.0 apg, 4.4 spg) and Indya Davis (15.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg) have helped key both runs and will be playing their final high school games this week. Bedford’s only in-state loss was to Saline, and the Kicking Mules still finished a game ahead of the Hornets to win the Southeastern Conference Red. Junior 6-foot-2 forward Victoria Gray leads with 13.4 points, 9.6 rebounds and two blocked shots per game.
DIVISION 2
Negaunee (25-1) vs. Flint Powers Catholic (23-3) at Sault Ste. Marie
Negaunee moved from Division 3 to Division 2 this season and has reached the Quarterfinals for the first time since 1998. Guard Ella Mason (19.7 ppg, 50 3-pointers) is one of three senior starters for the Miners. Powers also is recapturing previous glory with its first trip to the final week since 2014. Senior guard Amaya Smith requires attention beyond the arc as she’s made 65 3-pointers to go with an 11.4 ppg average.
Detroit Edison (20-3) vs. Goodrich (26-0) at West Bloomfield
Both are regulars in the annual championship conversation, Edison seeking to reach the Finals again after winning Division 2 in 2022 and Goodrich undefeated since playing in last season’s Semifinals at Breslin. Junior guard Isis Johnson-Musah (16.9 ppg) is the lead scorer and one of the Pioneers’ top shooters from the field and line, while sophomore guard Kayla Hairston (12.2 ppg) helps pace the Martians, who have four players including Hairston averaging between 2-3 assists per game.
Grand Rapids West Catholic (25-1) vs. Vicksburg (23-2) at Battle Creek Harper Creek
West Catholic’s only loss a year ago was in the Division 2 Semifinals to eventual champion Lansing Catholic, and its only defeat this season was to Division 1 Rockford in December. Senior Reese Polega (11.2 ppg) and junior Elisha Dykstra (11.4) are returning starters from last year’s run and the lead scorers this time. Vicksburg is making its first trip into the final week, with senior Maddison Diekman (12.4 ppg) and junior Makayla Allen (12.3) leading a similarly-balanced lineup.
Tecumseh (22-4) vs. Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard (26-0) at Ypsilanti Lincoln
Tecumseh is coming off its first Regional title since 1975 after defeating Lansing Catholic 56-52 to advance. Five players average at least 8.5 ppg, with 6-2 junior forward Alli Zajac topping the list with 17.6 points per with a team-high 51 3-pointers. FGR made the Quarterfinals just three years ago but is seeking its first Semifinals appearance since 1993 with a lineup bolstered by five players averaging at least 7.7 ppg and led by sophomore guard Vanessa Rodriguez (13.5, 50 3-pointers) and junior guard Charlotte Miller (11.2/49).
DIVISION 3
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian (19-5) vs. Niles Brandywine (24-1) at Fennville
Brandywine’s girls are attempting to follow up the school’s boys team’s Division 3 championship this past weekend as they return to the Quarterfinals for the first time since 2019. Senior guard Ellie Knapp runs the show with 14 points and 4.6 assists per game. Brandywine’s only defeat was to Vicksburg, and Covenant Christian’s losses all came to Division 1 and 2 opponents on the way to its first Regional title since 2016. Senior guards Lindsay Minderhoud (14.3 ppg) and Sophia Meulenberg (12.6) form a talented backcourt.
Elk Rapids (24-2) vs. Lake City (24-2) at Houghton Lake
Elk Rapids is a return quarterfinalist after being eliminated last season this round by eventual champion Hemlock, and the Elks will take on a somewhat familiar opponent – Lake City, which won their Dec. 20 matchup 44-40 and made the Quarterfinals most recently in 2022. Lake City senior guard MacKenzie Bisballe (22.3 ppg) vs. Elk Rapids senior guard Kendall Standfest (19.3 ppg) could be an interesting matchup if they lock up.
Rochester Hills Lutheran Northwest (17-9) vs. Sandusky (25-1) at St. Clair County Community College
MHSAA coaching wins leader Al DeMott just missed taking Sandusky to the Semifinals last season as his team fell by two points to Madison Heights Bishop Foley in this round. Freshman guard Caroline Reinke is filling the stat sheet at 7.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 4.4 steals per game. The Wolves take on first-time quarterfinalist Lutheran Northwest, which avenged a regular-season loss to Bishop Foley to start this postseason. The Crusaders also feature a notable freshman in Keaira Spiehs, who’s averaging 7.7 points, 8.6 rebounds and 3.1 blocks per game.
New Lothrop (20-7) vs. Ypsilanti Arbor Prep (22-4) at Dansville
New Lothrop has navigated a postseason path that’s seen its last four opponents finish a combined 81-17 this winter. The Hornets avenged a pair of regular-season defeats to Ovid-Elsie with a 43-26 win in their District Semifinal and have continued to charge with freshman Katelyn Wendling (15.6 ppg) among reasons the future looks bright. Arbor Prep was the Division 3 champion as recently as 2022 and has playoff wins this time over three league champions. Senior forwards Stephanie and Stacy Utomi also started on that title-winning team as sophomores.
DIVISION 4
Ishpeming (25-1) vs. St. Ignace (18-7) at Gladstone
This Quarterfinal features a rising Upper Peninsula power against the most established on the north side of Mackinac Bridge. Ishpeming won its first Regional title since 1985 and has lost only to Negaunee, splitting the season series with the Miners. Sophomore Jenessa Eagle (16 ppg) and senior Jenna Maki (15.6) provide a one-two backcourt punch. St. Ignace is making its first Quarterfinal appearance since finishing Division 4 runner-up in 2019, led by an impressive pair of juniors in Addison Cullen (16 ppg) and Jillian Fraser (17.4).
Fowler (23-3) vs. Mendon (23-3) at Gobles
Fowler is playing in a Quarterfinal for the fifth straight season (not counting COVID-canceled 2020) and has advanced to the Semifinals the last four, winning back-to-back Division 4 titles in 2021 and 2022. Junior guard Katie Spicer leads a balanced group at 11.7 points and 3.4 assists per game. Mendon is making its first Quarterfinal appearance since 2014 and has gone a combined 60-13 over the last three seasons. Senior center Makennah Mullin also leads a balanced bunch at 10.4 points and eight rebounds per game.
Frankfort (21-5) vs. Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (23-3) at McBain Northern Michigan Christian
Frankfort is making its first Quarterfinal appearance since 2017, and its last three matchups in this round have been against Sacred Heart. The Panthers have won 10 straight this winter and own a victory over St. Ignace, and are led by three players averaging at least 10 points a game topped by senior center Evelyn VanTol (14.9). This will be Sacred Heart’s first Quarterfinal since 2018, and the Irish have won all four of their playoff games by at least 13 points. Freshman guard Karis Terwilliger sets the pace at 14.3 ppg.
Morenci (21-3) vs. Kingston (25-1) at West Bloomfield, 5 p.m.
Morenci has reached its first Quarterfinal since 2011 with three losses this season by a combined eight points, all to larger opponents. The Bulldogs have five players averaging between 5.5 and 10.2 ppg, sophomore guard Emersyn Bachelder at the top of that list. Kingston’s lone loss came to Division 2 Goodrich on Dec. 13, and the Cardinals have had one single-digit game since in returning to the Quarterfinals for the second year in a row and after finishing last season 25-2. Delaney St. George (16.2 ppg, 84 3-pointers) leads the lineup.
MHSAA.com's weekly “Breslin Bound” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a division within the Department of Lifelong Education, Advancement, and Potential (MiLEAP). MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTOS Ewen-Trout Creek's Irelynd McGeshick (44) guards Ishpeming's Addison Morton (2) as she drives to the basket during the Hematites' 70-42 Division 4 Regional Final win last week. (Middle) Flint Powers' Grace Cameron (5) attempts to steer a pass around a Davison defender during the regular season. (Top photo by Cara Kamps; middle photo by Terry Lyons.)