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Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
![Fowler basketball](/sites/default/files/2022-03/220319_D4_2H.jpg)
Stifling D, Board Domination Earns Fowler Full Repeat Celebration
By
Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com
March 19, 2022
EAST LANSING – Carly Andros could have simply gotten back on defense.
The Fowler junior missed the front end of a 1-and-1 with less than two minutes to play Saturday in a game her team had essentially already wrapped up.
But Andros did what Fowler had done throughout its 61-46 Division 4 Girls Basketball Final victory against Plymouth Christian Academy – crashed the boards, secured the offensive rebound and turned an empty possession into a layup.
Fowler dominated the glass on its way to a second-straight Finals title, out-rebounding Plymouth Christian 42-20, including a 15-2 edge on the offensive boards. Fowler turned that into 14 second-chance points, continually turning Plymouth Christian defensive stops into backbreaking scoring plays.
“We’re not the most imposing team, but they just work so hard and they’re always going at the glass,” Fowler coach Nathan Goerge said. “We talk about taking away second-chance opportunities for the other team, and because we’re willing to attack the offensive glass, we have so many second-chance opportunities. So it’s just a huge opportunity for us.”
It was the third title for the Fowler program, which had three Finals appearances during the 1990s, including the Class D win in 1991.
Winning a second straight would have been special on its own, but being able to celebrate with a large contingent of fellow students and fans – which was missing last year because of COVID-19 protocols – added to the experience.
“We are so blessed to have had both of these opportunities,” Fowler senior Mia Riley said. “Even last year when the fans couldn’t come. It was, not really downplayed, but people couldn’t be there and it wasn’t the same environment. To be able to have it this year and to be able to get everything (that was missing) last year just made everything so worth it. It was such a great experience, and I’m so glad to go through it with this group of girls.”
Riley led Fowler with 15 points and 12 rebounds, while her younger sister, Emma, had 14 points. Emma Riley scored her 1,000th career point early in the third quarter.
Grace Epkey added 10 points and 11 rebounds for Fowler. Taylor Weber had nine points on a trio of 3-pointers, and Andros had seven rebounds.
“Understandably so, (the Riley sisters) get so much attention because they’re such fantastic players,” Goerge said. “I kind of said it before, this game was going to come down to our role players, if you will, and all of them stepped up huge. It was a total team win for us tonight. I couldn’t be happier for the girls.”
Senior Anna Fernandez scored 23 points to lead Plymouth Christian in her final high school game. Junior Morganne Houk added 17 points.
“Our kids came to win,” Plymouth Christian coach Rod Windle said. “There was a little bit of disappointment at the end in terms of what they dreamed for, what they hoped for. Certainly, in reflection when the day is done there will be some rejoicing about the season we had. I’m really proud of the effort these players gave. They’re competitors, they dream big and they got after it tonight.”
Plymouth Christian was within four midway through the second quarter, but a 9-0 Fowler run over the final 2:21 of the half blew the game open.
Weber started it with a 3-pointer, and Mia Riley and Epkey ended it, working for a pair of layups in the final minute to put their team up 27-14 at the break.
Plymouth Christian, meanwhile, went scoreless over the final 4:25 of the half.
Fowler didn’t shoot well during the first half (10 of 30), but grabbed nine offensive rebounds and had seven second-chance points. Epkey had five offensive boards herself in the half.
Fowler also moved the ball effectively and had eight assists on 10 first-half field goals. While piling up twice as many assists as turnovers (four), their defense forced seven first-half turnovers of Plymouth Christian.
That, combined with 5 of 20 shooting, made offense difficult for Plymouth Christian.
“Plymouth Christian is a fantastic team with exceptional guard play, so the challenge was to contain (Fernandez and Houk) and kind of run them off the 3-point line as best we could,” Goerge said. “I’m sure those two had some high-scoring totals, but I thought overall the girls did an amazing job defensively.”
Plymouth Christian got as close as eight points in the third quarter, but each time it did, Fowler had an answer. That included a pair of 3s from Madison Wirth and another from Weber late in the third, with each directly countering big plays from Houk and Fernandez and giving Fowler an 11-point lead heading into the fourth quarter.
“We made some runs that I thought might roll into us coming back, but we got denied by their own runs,” Windle said. “They were able to run back and continue to maintain their lead tonight.”
PHOTOS (Top) Fowler celebrates its repeat Division 4 championship Saturday at Breslin Center. (Middle) The Eagles’ Mia Riley (25) dips into the lane among Plymouth Christian’s defenders including Grace Fernandes (4) and Sophia Arlen-Olsen (12). (Below) Carly Andros (4) gets up a shot as Morganne Houk (2) defends. (Click for more from Hockey Weekly Action Photos.)